Football ratings

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
Post Reply
jacks6666
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 1:40 pm

Wow.

Thanks Peter.

Really like these new style ratings.
biniaz35
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 14, 2014 5:36 pm

Pete any Ratings for tonight's CL games
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

3.29 : Home 2.92 Away 0.37 - Juventus vs. Olympiakos
3.08 : Home 1.81 Away 1.27 - Paris St-G vs. Bayern Munich
3.03 : Home 0.83 Away 2.20 - Sporting Lisbon vs. Barcelona
2.69 : Home 1.37 Away 1.33 - Anderlecht vs. Celtic
2.51 : Home 1.08 Away 1.43 - FC Basel vs. Benfica
2.35 : Home 1.13 Away 1.23 - Birmingham vs. Sheff Wed
2.33 : Home 1.09 Away 1.24 - Sheff Utd vs. Wolves
2.23 : Home 0.76 Away 1.47 - CSKA Moscow vs. Man Utd
2.15 : Home 1.27 Away 0.88 - Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Tomm wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:41 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Perfectly possible
Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?
Found a video you may like: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:35 pm
Tomm wrote:
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:41 pm
Euler wrote:
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:49 pm
Perfectly possible
Hi Peter,

You've said before that forming expectations based on past results is pretty irrelevant in football, but surely an expected goals model based on shots, corners etc is quite heavily reliant on past games?
Found a video you may like: -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA
Thanks Peter, I've had a go recently at forming expectations of the expected number of goals in a game with similar figures to yours, which I would class as a success! Do you factor possession at all in your calculations?
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

Tomm wrote:
Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:44 pm

Thanks Peter, I've had a go recently at forming expectations of the expected number of goals in a game with similar figures to yours, which I would class as a success! Do you factor possession at all in your calculations?
Side point, how do you form an expectation for games where the teams play in different leagues? Do you have a general attack/defence rating that you apply to each league?
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I don't look at possession at all. Across leagues is tough, you have to insert a differential between leagues based purely on history, but then a top team may play a weaker side.

I ended up going to player level to derive a lot of ratings to solve these problems.
minipeg
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:58 pm

any ratings for today peter cheers paul
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's! :lol:

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
minipeg
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Mar 21, 2017 5:58 pm

are these goal outcomes
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Sorry, I couldn't get these out in time, just too much going on this morning and I was working overnight on the aussie stuff so needed some sleep.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tomm wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:12 pm
If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's! :lol:

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
You seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal. ;)
Tomm
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:59 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:08 pm
Tomm wrote:
Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:12 pm
If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's! :lol:

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
You seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal. ;)
Confidence is key :lol:
herbie
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon May 11, 2009 8:56 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:34 pm
3.56 : Home 3.07 Away 0.49 - Napoli vs. Feyenoord
3.53 : Home 2.95 Away 0.58 - Man City vs. Shakhtar
3.39 : Home 1.59 Away 1.80 - Dortmund vs. Real Madrid
3.36 : Home 2.95 Away 0.41 - Sevilla vs. NK Maribor
3.10 : Home 2.39 Away 0.70 - Wigan vs. Plymouth
2.96 : Home 0.92 Away 2.04 - Spartak Moscow vs. Liverpool
2.89 : Home 1.22 Away 1.67 - Oldham vs. Peterborough
2.87 : Home 1.31 Away 1.56 - Nottm Forest vs. Fulham
2.85 : Home 1.54 Away 1.31 - Brentford vs. Derby
2.76 : Home 1.57 Away 1.19 - Monaco vs. Porto
2.72 : Home 1.95 Away 0.77 - Bristol City vs. Bolton
2.65 : Home 1.22 Away 1.43 - Besiktas vs. RB Leipzig
2.60 : Home 0.66 Away 1.94 - APOEL vs. Tottenham
2.49 : Home 1.43 Away 1.06 - Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.48 : Home 1.35 Away 1.14 - Hull vs. Preston
2.47 : Home 1.50 Away 0.96 - Middlesbrough vs. Norwich
2.40 : Home 1.39 Away 1.01 - Millwall vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 0.92 Away 1.47 - Burton vs. Aston Villa
2.35 : Home 1.24 Away 1.10 - Ipswich vs. Sunderland

Trying an experimental layout for you to give more info.
Now its really interesting. Thank you
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

3.72 : Home 0.49 Away 3.23 - Dijon vs. Paris St-G
3.57 : Home 3.18 Away 0.39 - Celtic vs. Dundee
3.52 : Home 3.03 Away 0.49 - Man City vs. Stoke
3.31 : Home 0.80 Away 2.51 - Getafe vs. Real Madrid
3.17 : Home 2.83 Away 0.34 - Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg
2.89 : Home 1.01 Away 1.88 - Watford vs. Arsenal
2.79 : Home 1.59 Away 1.20 - Parma vs. Pescara
2.77 : Home 1.73 Away 1.04 - Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
2.73 : Home 1.83 Away 0.90 - Juventus vs. Lazio
2.72 : Home 1.62 Away 1.10 - Fulham vs. Preston
2.70 : Home 1.72 Away 0.99 - Sheff Utd vs. Ipswich
2.69 : Home 2.10 Away 0.59 - Tottenham vs. Bournemouth
2.64 : Home 0.74 Away 1.90 - C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.58 : Home 1.17 Away 1.40 - Hamilton vs. Motherwell
2.58 : Home 1.23 Away 1.35 - Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
2.57 : Home 1.12 Away 1.45 - Alaves vs. Sociedad
2.42 : Home 1.53 Away 0.89 - Leeds vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 1.36 Away 1.04 - Clermont vs. Le Havre
2.36 : Home 1.32 Away 1.04 - FK Krasnodar vs. CSKA Moscow
2.34 : Home 0.91 Away 1.43 - Bolton vs. Sheff Wed
2.30 : Home 1.12 Away 1.18 - Burnley vs. West Ham
2.27 : Home 1.15 Away 1.12 - Hertha Berlin vs. Schalke
2.20 : Home 1.33 Away 0.86 - Swansea vs. Huddersfield
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”