Football ratings

[marko236]

Been meaning to try this for a while, found some value bets already.

Possible to make more than the Betangel fees alone with this.

Thanks.

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 38 goals today - an average of 2.74 per match.

3.09 : Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund
3.07 : Schalke vs. Paderborn
3.01 : Freiburg vs. B Munich
2.88 : Augsburg vs. Hannover
2.88 : Liverpool vs. C Palace
2.83 : Monaco vs. Metz
2.74 : Tottenham vs. Hull
2.66 : QPR vs. Newcastle
2.66 : Lille vs. Marseille
2.59 : West Ham vs. Everton
2.56 : Inter vs. Juventus
2.47 : Sunderland vs. Leicester
2.46 : Southampton vs. Aston Villa
2.44 : Burnley vs. Stoke

[LeTiss]

Come on PW....sort it out!

How could you not have predicted 5 goals for Saints by half-time?

[Euler]

Slacking there! Stunning first half, which usually means a dull second half.

[Oasis06]

Peter are these goal ratings based on stats alone or do you take situation in to consideration? I only ask because it was fairly obvious to me there was unlikely to be more than 1 goal scored in the sunderland match given the situation both teams were in yet you had rated it as 2.47

[Euler]

Had a look at the ratings today, but they all seem unusually high. As it's the last day of the season and most teams have nothing to play for it seems odd and I'm not confident about either the ratings or what the markets are telling me. Guess I will have to wait and see what it throws up. But the number of goals forecasted by the market is really top heavy.

[Euler]

Well it was right!

[herbie]

Euler, how did your stats do over all this season?

[evertonian]

Euler, how did your stats do over all this season?

I would also like to know how these got on and what trading methods people used to profit from these ?

Were the most profitable games on these ratings the low scoring games ? How did people trade the high scoring games to make long term profit ?

I produce my own ratings and last season the Over / Under 2.5 markets were pretty efficient on certain leagues to my ratings betting wise, but there were lots of edges in other markets and certain leagues. Personally I felt that the low scoring games where I had an edge were very good for Backing the Under 2.5 goals and trading out at Half Time, but also certain leagues exhibited lower scoring characteristics on average than others.

Generally on high scoring leagues the 2.5 goal market on the Overs side offered very little value, and the little value found was found on certain types of games.

How did others use Peters ratings ?

[Euler]

I just finished analysing all data from last season and the model was 0.07 goals out on average over the course of the season. Slightly over on the home team and slightly under on the away team, but a decent overall result.

[LeTiss]

Tremendous effort mate

Your attention to detail is truly jaw dropping

[98lewisj]

Have put together ratings for some of this weekends matches, Be interested to see how they differ from everyone else's ratings.

Newcastle v saints 1.91
Chelsea v Swansea 1.94
Norwich V Palace 2.02
Leicester v Sunderland 2.04
Man Utd v Spurs 3.30
West Brom v Man City 3.53

Total goals for these 6 games = 14.74 Goals

[Euler]

Early season can be a little tricky

[LeTiss]

The first 4-5 weeks are traditionally very hit & miss, especially if a team has changed the manager and are adopting a change of tactics from last season

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 42 goals today - an average of 2.49 per match.

2.69 : Brentford vs. Ipswich
2.69 : Man Utd vs. Tottenham
2.64 : Chelsea vs. Swansea
2.60 : Everton vs. Watford
2.54 : Cardiff vs. Fulham
2.54 : Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa
2.52 : Hull vs. Huddersfield
2.52 : Bolton vs. Derby
2.49 : Blackburn vs. Wolves
2.49 : Chesterfield vs. Barnsley
2.46 : Charlton vs. QPR
2.45 : Gillingham vs. Sheff Utd
2.40 : Sheff Wed vs. Bristol City
2.38 : Juventus vs. Lazio
2.33 : Norwich vs. C Palace
2.32 : Leicester vs. Sunderland
2.27 : Leeds vs. Burnley