Football ratings

[burdo77]

most of the odds fall within the 1.8-2.0 mark. Do you find better value in this range Euler?

[Euler]

I make the average expectation 3.23 today. Has there been any discernible trend in goal expectancies over recent seasons? Your ratings generally seem higher than I'd intuitively expect without stats.

How do you select which matches to put up on this thread? They usually seem to include the higher goal expectancy matches.

Slightly more goals in recent years. But the ball is inplay much more often recently.

I generally go for matches with higher liquidity so often I'll catch more higher scoring matches in the ratings. It's somewhat accidental.

[Euler]

most of the odds fall within the 1.8-2.0 mark. Do you find better value in this range Euler?

Not particularly. Pre off the market is pretty efficient but when the match is underway it can deviate quite a bit.

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 19 goals today - an average of 2.77 per match.

3.92 : Barcelona vs. Ajax
3.46 : Chelsea vs. NK Maribor
3.07 : Roma vs. B Munich
2.86 : Schalke vs. Sp Lisbon
2.73 : Porto vs. Ath Bilbao
2.62 : BATE Borisov vs. Shakhtar
2.67 : APOEL vs. Paris St-G

[burdo77]

I think my question I would be is it better to lay 1.8 as opposed to backing 1.8 because you get 0.02 per tick when it reaches over 2.0 rather than 0.01?

Cheers burdo

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 22 goals today - an average of 2.75 per match.

3.48 : Atl Madrid vs. Malmo FF
3.40 : Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
3.21 : Galatasaray vs. Dortmund
3.16 : Anderlecht vs. Arsenal
3.12 : Leverkusen vs. Zenit St Petersburg
2.67 : Ludogorets vs. Basel
2.56 : Olympiacos vs. Juventus
2.53 : Monaco vs. Benfica

[Euler]

3.41 : West Ham vs. Man City
3.33 : Liverpool vs. Hull
3.08 : Swansea vs. Leicester
3.01 : Sunderland vs. Arsenal
2.86 : Middlesbrough vs. Watford
2.84 : Southampton vs. Stoke
2.82 : Derby vs. Wigan
2.72 : West Brom vs. C Palace
2.74 : AFC Wimbledon vs. Tranmere
2.63 : Millwall vs. Cardiff

[Euler]

4.34 : Red Bull Salzburg vs. Admira Wacker
4.33 : Barcelona vs. Celta Vigo
4.19 : Ajax vs. Dordrecht
3.63 : Chelsea vs. QPR
3.54 : Granada vs. Real Madrid
3.53 : B Munich vs. Dortmund
3.45 : Arsenal vs. Burnley
3.27 : Porto vs. Nacional
3.23 : Dundee Utd vs. St Mirren
3.18 : Atl Madrid vs. Cordoba
3.12 : Peterborough vs. Scunthorpe
3.06 : Brentford vs. Derby
2.97 : Guimaraes vs. Sp Lisbon
2.98 : Everton vs. Swansea
2.94 : Leicester vs. West Brom
2.93 : Watford vs. Millwall
2.90 : Bournemouth vs. Brighton
2.89 : Rotherham vs. Middlesbrough
2.87 : Wigan vs. Fulham
2.88 : Lorient vs. Paris St-G
2.82 : Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.80 : Hull vs. Southampton
2.79 : Sociedad vs. Malaga
2.76 : Stoke vs. West Ham
2.76 : Empoli vs. Juventus
2.75 : Parma vs. Inter
2.70 : Notts Co vs. Walsall
2.47 : Charlton vs. Sheff Wed

[stevequal]

@Euler - Been meaning to say thank you for your ratings for the past few weeks, I've found them very useful.

Any ratings for tonight? Bloodbath at the Bernabeu?

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 23 goals today - an average of 2.85 per match.

3.83 : Real Madrid vs. Liverpool
3.54 : Dortmund vs. Galatasaray
3.38 : Arsenal vs. Anderlecht
3.15 : Birmingham vs. Watford
3.00 : Malmo FF vs. Atl Madrid
2.88 : Juventus vs. Olympiakos
2.75 : FC Basel vs. Ludogorets
2.52 : Benfica vs. Monaco

[cornonthecob]

Jeff

Don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced this game is for you - you joined this forum 5 years ago, so I wouldn't expect you to still be asking those questions

I've said this before to you, but you're like a man who has read the Kama Sutra from back to front, but sadly suffers from erectile dysfunction

Just reading this thread as a newbie to the Forum, this is quality

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this today's matches, ranked from most goals to least. We reckon there will be around 30 goals today - an average of 2.96 per match.

3.41 : Ajax vs. Barcelona
3.41 : B Munich vs. Roma
3.25 : Man City vs. CSKA Moscow
3.09 : Shakhtar vs. BATE Borisov
2.96 : NK Maribor vs. Chelsea
2.85 : Fulham vs. Blackpool
2.83 : Paris St-G vs. APOEL
2.76 : Nottm Forest vs. Brentford
2.69 : Sp Lisbon vs. Schalke
2.36 : Ath Bilbao vs. Porto

[stevequal]

Any ratings today Peter?

[Euler]

Sorry, was up late this morning. Needed a rest.

[Euler]

For the record here is what they would have been: -

3.13 : QPR vs. Man City
3.07 : Man Utd vs. C Palace
3.00 : Southampton vs. Leicester
2.61 : Liverpool vs. Chelsea
2.60 : West Ham vs. Aston Villa
2.43 : Burnley vs. Hull