Lay the Draw with Predicted Draw Prices after a Goal

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Laying the Draw is possible the most well known and certainly one of the oldest football strategies there is, but like most of these type of football trading strategies turning a profit in the long term comes down to the right match selection and there are many pieces of information you can use to find suitable markets to lay the draw either pre KO or during the match but one thing you can’t dig out of stats which is a very important part of making a profit from laying the draw long term is how far and in what direction would the draw odds will move when that goal is scored.

This is dependent on two key factors, the current odds of the two teams playing and how much time is remaining in the match otherwise known as the time decay

There is a way to derive the draw odds following a goal and using Betfair trading software like Bet Angel you also have the tools and options to display what the Predicted draw odds will be following the next goal regardless of which team scores on your ladder screen.

Ladder Pre-Off.jpg

You can see in the Pre-off image above this match has a fairly strong home fav, should you lay the draw now and the fav scores first early in the match the draw price is only likely to rise a to 3.8 (about 5 ticks), whereas if the away underdog scores first the price of the draw will shoot out to 6.4, nearly double what you lay at.

Even if you are not laying the draw at the start of the match, and instead are looking for an opportunity at half time or any other time during the match based on what you’re seeing unfold on the pitch or in-play stats the predicted draw price displayed in Bet Angel will continually change and update as the match progresses and time decays so you always have a good idea of how a goal will impact the price.

In the next image taken at HT if you layed the draw now and the home team were to score first the draw price would be around 3.15 an away goal first and the price would be around 8.0 so no matter who scores first.

Ladder HT.jpg

How it Works

This is done by using two simple rules file that will continually trigger and store the draw prices from the +1 markets, (effectively these are handicap markets priced as though a team has one goal more than they currently have), basically they give a glimpse into the future on how the match odds market will reform following the next goal. Those stored prices are then displayed on your ladder screen.

You then need to configure your ladder settings so that it can display these stored values.

Don’t worry if it sounds a bit complicated, everything is already done for you, both the rules files and the ladder settings have already been created for you, all you need to do is download them from the bottom of this post and import them into your Bet Angel from the bottom and you’re ready to go.

Using Files

Display Predicted Draw Odds – this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area

Import Ladder Settings.JPG

Draw Odds Predictor (Home) & Draw Odds Predictor (Away) – these are the rules files and need to be imported into your Guardian

Guardian Import.jpg

Once you have imported them into your Bet Angel simply select the Match Odds and the home team +1 and away team +1 markets for each fixture you want to trade and add those markets to Guardian then apply the rules as follows;

Draw Odds Predictor (Home) – this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 market in Guardian
Draw Odds Predictor (Away) – identical to the above rule but needs to be stored to the away team +1 market in Guardian

For example, the first fixture is in the Guardian image below is Ludogorets Vs Inter
So, the Draw Odds Predictor (Away) file is applied to Inter +1 market (because Inter are the away team)
And the Draw Odds Predictor (Home) file is applied to Ludogorets +1 market (because Ludogorets are the home team)


And that’s it, once you open the match odds market of that fixture the predicted odds following a goal will be displayed above your ladders.
And that’s it, once you open the match odds market of that fixture the predicted odds following a goal will be displayed above your ladders.
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