Predicted Profit or Loss after a Goal

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Would you like to know how much your profit (or loss) is likely to be following the next goal in a football match?

With Bet Angel you can display exactly that information on your ladder or one-click screen, this is shown in real time and constantly adjusts and updates if you place further bets and as the time of the match progresses and the time decays.

Having this information means you can pitch your exit/greening up bets in advance around the odds the market will begin to reform at after a goal is scored - giving you the advantage of not only being one of the first to be matched but also getting a better price than you otherwise would waiting for it to fully settle.

Scenario - (Laying the Draw with Predicted Profit after a Goal)

To show this I’ll use the well known and popular lay the draw strategy, in the image below I’ve layed the draw pre-KO and can now see if the home team scores the opening goal I’ll make around £21.28, if the away team score first I’ll make a little more at around £30.19.

Predicted Profit after a Goal.jpg

As the match gets underway and progresses the impact of a goal will effect the draw odds the market will reform at, so as this changes so will your potential profit and this is continually updated for you by the software so you can always be adjusting any exit/greening position accordingly while also being able to evaluate your risk/reward at all times during the match

By contrast if you were to lay the draw in a match with a strong favourite, you will know you'll have a good profit if the fav scored but if the under dog scores first this will cause the draw odds to shorten and put you in a losing position, with this you can see exactly what your risk/reward would be. In the image below you can see after laying the draw with a £10 stake, if the home team (fav) scores first the predicted profit of £6.00, where as if the away team (under dog) scores first the predicted loss is -£10.39

Predicted Profit after a Goal Strong Fav.jpg

How this is Done

To do this involves using a simple trick shown in this similar post which displays the predicted odds after a goal,

But just to give a brief re-cap by using the +1 markets which are effectively handicap markets they will show you were the prices will reform if either team were to score 1 more goal, then using Stored Values in Bet Angels advanced automation we can use those odds and look up the corresponding profit (or loss) against that price – and that’s what gets displayed to you.

Using the image above showing we’ll make £21.28 if the home team scores and, around £30.19 if the away team scores first if you were to scroll up to those values in the trade profit column on the ladder you’ll see the corresponding odds they relate to therefore you’d place your exit/greening bet around 4.7 if it looked more likely the home team will score first and around 5.4 if it looks like being the away team that will score first.

Displaying the Predicted Profit/Loss on your Ladder

Just in that previous example all the files needed to display the predicted profits above your ladders have already been recreated for you. There are four files required which can all be downloaded directly below.

Display Predicted Profit after a Goal.bls
– this is a ladder settings file and needs to be imported into your ladder settings area, this will then display the ladder exactly as you see in the image above (you can of course use the Bet Angel ladder settings editor and edit any part of your ladder layout)
Import Ladder Settings.JPG
Display Predicted Profits after Goal.bls

Profit Predictor after a Goal (Home).baf
– this is a basic rules file and needs to be applied to the home team +1 markets in Guardian
Profit Predictor after a Goal (Away).baf – identical to the above rule but needs to be applied to the away team +1 markets in Guardian
Display Predicted Profit after a Goal (Match Odds).baf – this final rules file needs to be applied to the match odds market.
Guardian Import.jpg
Profit after a Goal (Home).baf
Profit after a Goal (Away).baf
Predicted Profit after Goal (Match Odds).baf

In the screenshot below you can see I’ve added the match odds market, the home team +1 and away team +1 for three fixtures and applied the relevant ‘Profit Predictor after Goal’ to the +1 markets and Display Predicted Profit after a Goal to the match odds market

Guardian Selections.jpg

For example, the first fixture is Schalke 04 Vs Leverkusen
So, the Goal Odds Predictor (A) file is applied to Leverkusen +1 market (because Leverkusen are the away team)
And the Goal Odds Predictor (H) file is applied to Schalke 04 +1 market (because Schalke 04 are the home team)

And that’s it, once you open the match odds market of that fixture and place a bet on the draw (it can be a back or lay bet) and you can place additional bets to add to or reduce your position and it will continually update to display your predicted P/L should a goal be scored.

NBTo provide more accurate results I’ve included a condition that there must be greater that £1000 matched on the +1 market, so if you don’t see any values on your ladder then it will be because this condition has not yet been satisfied.

Trading the Hime/Away Teams

With the rules file above you are not just limited to trading on the draw, you can use the same rules files to view your predicted profits (and losses) no matter whether your trading the home team, away team or the draw, all you need to do is make a simple change to the selection each rule is applied to

This is done on the general tab of each of the rules in Guardian, so if you wanted to see your P/L from trading the home team you’d change the ‘Applies to selection’ 1 on the three rules files.
Edit Selection to Trade.jpg
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