Today's Tennis

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henbet22
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Quality TB
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MemphisFlash
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Location: Leicester

not a bad 3 hours return
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MemphisFlash
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even better week

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henbet22
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What a match!! :D
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Derek27
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The Australian Open got me interested in tennis again. Don't turn your nose up at the 250s. :D

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Derek27
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Betfair website scores are quicker than the live feed.
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Cards37
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I just started tinkering too after Peter’s video on laying favourites pre-match and trading out video popped up on my recommended feed. Going to run a decent sample size but gotta say that 20 match sample with 95% success looks lucky. I’ve done 30 or so with small stakes and had over 20% just head straight below the match start price. Does anyone have stats with a larger sample size?
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Dallas
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Cards37 wrote:
Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:15 pm
I just started tinkering too after Peter’s video on laying favourites pre-match and trading out video popped up on my recommended feed. Going to run a decent sample size but gotta say that 20 match sample with 95% success looks lucky. I’ve done 30 or so with small stakes and had over 20% just head straight below the match start price. Does anyone have stats with a larger sample size?
All depends on the starting price you are looking at and how far your looking for them to drift
For example, the data from over several thousand matches shows a player starting at 1.25 will drift 20% around 50% of the time
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Cards37
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Thanks Dallas. Just trying to get my head around the concepts. For my experiment I'm using Tennis Trader and assuming the favourite serves first, then looking at a break mid-set (so lets say 2-3 scoreline). I'm using the indicated price there as the exit point.

Back to first principles, if we assume a 100% book (yes I know it won''t quite be the case), then if we just lay all the favourites every match, then you just lose in the long run by the commission taken. So in theory, if the exit "save" strategy (ie as above) generates enough profit vs the "let it run" strategy to overcome the commission paid, then long term it's profitable. Is it as simple as that or am I missing something obvious?
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Derek27
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They should have a market for when a tennis match will start, give us something to trade while we wait.
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Derek27
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No score feed for the Davis Cup.
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Dallas
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:16 pm
No score feed for the Davis Cup.
Davis Cup have never had live scores, its under different licensing
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Dallas
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Cards37 wrote:
Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:41 pm
Thanks Dallas. Just trying to get my head around the concepts. For my experiment I'm using Tennis Trader and assuming the favourite serves first, then looking at a break mid-set (so lets say 2-3 scoreline). I'm using the indicated price there as the exit point.

Back to first principles, if we assume a 100% book (yes I know it won''t quite be the case), then if we just lay all the favourites every match, then you just lose in the long run by the commission taken. So in theory, if the exit "save" strategy (ie as above) generates enough profit vs the "let it run" strategy to overcome the commission paid, then long term it's profitable. Is it as simple as that or am I missing something obvious?
Yes, that's pretty much it, your looking at short term variations rather than the overall result of the match
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Derek27
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Looking at the little BLV window, misread a toilet break for a tie break. :lol:
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Derek27
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Danielle Collins is always a good trade. :D

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