Australian Open 2017

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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
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Thought I’de do a quick run through of my trades in the deciding set of the Aus Open final. Prior to the final set my only other trade of the final was a lay on Federer in the 4th set which I greened up after he was broken. I was therefore keen to find an opportunity in the last set – and I did nt have to wait long.

The final set… After Nadal broke Federer’s opening serve this presented an immediate lay opportunity on Nadal at quiet low odds – which I happily took (I could not see him going the whole set without being broken and even if he wasn’t the risk at these odds was very low compared to the potential rewards).

Nadal’s started his next service game badly and ended up quickly facing a few break points because of this his odds drifted a fair way allowing me to green up before the end of the game and take 38 ticks profit (looking at Tennis trader by waiting for the actual break I would have only gained around half a dozen more ticks so I took the profit now).

Nadal did in fact fight back hold that service game so his odds contracted back to about the same as I originally layed him at, of course with it still very early in the set and his odds back to where they started I decided to lay him again… next game Federer held his serve so the odds of Nadal rose a little anyway.

Now its Nadal’s 2nd service game of the set, and once again he ended up struggling and faced a few break points so I again greened out now rather than wait for the actual break, this time taking 25 ticks profit. He ended up holding his serve again and his odds returned to just lower than I layed.

I’de now layed Nadal on two occasions and even though both times he held his serve I still managed to take a total of 63 ticks profit in the process.

Even if I done nothing after the initial lay and waited for the actual break I would have only been negative about 5-6 ticks by this time so would have still been in a good position for a potential break still to come - the later the break occurred the bigger the drift in odds would be.

It was now 3-1 Nadal so still plenty of time to go, I ummed and arred about laying Nadal for a 3rd time but in the end decided to do so with 50% of the previous stakes with the intension of holding out for an actual break this time. As if scripted Nadal was finally broken that serve and his odds drifted massively so I picked up another 74 ticks profit (albeit with 50% of my normal stake).

That was it, three easy low risk trades after that I just sat and enjoyed the final few games of what was a fantastic match and overall a fantastic tournament, Im now looking forward to the season ahead.

And if you've not seen the latest Tennis video by Peter on 'Simple and profitable tennis trades' you can see it at the link below
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Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm

My Tv stated an interesting stat :

13 previous finals gone to 2-2, all 13 won by guy who wins the 3rd set .. (Fed).

Not sure how much, a trader should read into this .. but, I had a small interest.

Well done on your trades.
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