Markets seems perfectly efficient to me...

[offlimit88]

Who is comparing prelive markets like horse racing and tennis inplay markets is making a mistake, in my opinion.

Question , only about tennis markets : someone posted me a "overreaction" graph, but following the logic, you know that something is overreacting when you know the probability of that event to occurr, did you measure it?

You don't have to know the probability - you use your judgement on what the probability is and whether there has been an overreaction. If you make a long term profit then you know your judgement is accurate, or at least collectively more accurate than the people on the other side of your trades.

Guessing is the worst thing one can do, i think the reason to enter a trade must be more solid

[Kai]

Is there anyone trading order flow in live horse racing? i don t think so...

Yes, there are hundreds of traders from Portugal and Brazil alone on racing inplay, they're not big fans of prerace markets like the British. Bickat is their most famous inplay trader, although there are others as well, some who sell video courses on how to read the order flow and read the race itself, so that's why it's so popular over there.

[gutuami]

Guessing is the worst thing one can do, i think the reason to enter a trade must be more solid

if you mean by "guessing" doing random stuff then you're right although it's not easy to be random in actions. But when you have a bit of logic on your side that's not guessing that's calculated risk. and very soon your pnl will tell you whether you're guessing or not.

[Derek27]

Who is comparing prelive markets like horse racing and tennis inplay markets is making a mistake, in my opinion.

Question , only about tennis markets : someone posted me a "overreaction" graph, but following the logic, you know that something is overreacting when you know the probability of that event to occurr, did you measure it?

You don't have to know the probability - you use your judgement on what the probability is and whether there has been an overreaction. If you make a long term profit then you know your judgement is accurate, or at least collectively more accurate than the people on the other side of your trades.

Guessing is the worst thing one can do, i think the reason to enter a trade must be more solid

There's a clear distinction between guessing and using your judgement. If you're not guessing or using your judgement, what the hell are you doing, calculating the precise probability?

[offlimit88]

You don't have to know the probability - you use your judgement on what the probability is and whether there has been an overreaction. If you make a long term profit then you know your judgement is accurate, or at least collectively more accurate than the people on the other side of your trades.

Guessing is the worst thing one can do, i think the reason to enter a trade must be more solid

There's a clear distinction between guessing and using your judgement. If you're not guessing or using your judgement, what the hell are you doing, calculating the precise probability?

Well, everyone has his method. The problem is, if you don't have solid and empirical proofs thatt you have an edge over them markets, how will you behave when you will make bad judgements for days, or a month?

[Derek27]

Guessing is the worst thing one can do, i think the reason to enter a trade must be more solid

There's a clear distinction between guessing and using your judgement. If you're not guessing or using your judgement, what the hell are you doing, calculating the precise probability?

Well, everyone has his method. The problem is, if you don't have solid and empirical proofs thatt you have an edge over them markets, how will you behave when you will make bad judgements for days, or a month?

The proof that you have an edge is your profit/loss account - it's as simple as that!

I don't mean to sound smug but I don't make bad judgements for days or a month. If I continuously made bad judgements I would have to question whether my overall judgement of whatever particular market I was losing money on was bad.

[ShaunWhite]

how will you behave when you will make bad judgements for days, or a month?

Good judgement is something you either have or haven't got, unlike an edge found in data which can vanish permanently overnight. Judgement also improves as you trade more markets which is something that rarely happens with a formulaic edge. Belief in your judgment to sustain you though the inevitable losing spells is something that grows as the profitable months stack up.

There's more than one way to trade, some people make their guesses using stats and Excel, some do it by hiring a room full of PhDs and subject specialists, other people might use their judgement honed after trading 1000s of markets. Stick to whatever suits you best and don't worry too much if other people do it differently.