Probably of winning game - Tennis Trader

[Brovashift]

Hi all

I have been logging price swings where BPs/BoS likely, starting from 4-3 scoreline, and separating WTA 1-3 sets & ATP 1-5 sets. I was expecting to find that the same setups in different games would having similar price swings, so I could create an alert to hone in on the most profitable risk/reward setups when there are too many games to keep track of, like now with the US Open.

Obviously most potential BPs/BoS offer good risk/reward setups, but looking at; for example, WTA set1, 4-3 to fav. with underdog serving next, in one game it gave 5/25 ticks for the fav. to break serve. But the same setup in a later match, with 2 different players, gave 8/41 ticks risk/reward.
Without looking at tennis trader yet today I am guessing that these different calculations will be displayed as "Probability of winning game %".

So my question is; how does tennis trader calculate the probability of winning game, and the potential prices for a hold or break of serve? I assumed tennis trader doesn't use things like individual player data as this is ever changing. Does it depend on the path to e.g. 4-3, i.e. number of BPs/BoS, current player leading, next to serve, whether fav. or underdog?

TIA

[Euler]

This is more or less how it works - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A_hXIg1aac

But if you calibrate during the match it will look at the odds and compare them to the model and adjust the seed values.

Or you can type them in yourself.

[Brovashift]

This is more or less how it works - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6A_hXIg1aac

But if you calibrate during the match it will look at the odds and compare them to the model and adjust the seed values.

Or you can type them in yourself.

Cheers Peter,

This just sent me down a rabbit hole reading up on player seed values, never quite understood the difference between seed and rank. I do now.
But when you talk about seed values using the calibration tool, I don't think you mean player seed values do you?

Do you mean an initial value for the tennis trader model to use, as a base value to work from. And is this value very subjective, based on my own analysis of e.g. recent player data?
How does the seed value work, e.g. is the default 0.65 out of 100?

Thanks