Today's Tennis
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
not a bad 3 hours return
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- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2162
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
even better week
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I just started tinkering too after Peter’s video on laying favourites pre-match and trading out video popped up on my recommended feed. Going to run a decent sample size but gotta say that 20 match sample with 95% success looks lucky. I’ve done 30 or so with small stakes and had over 20% just head straight below the match start price. Does anyone have stats with a larger sample size?
All depends on the starting price you are looking at and how far your looking for them to driftCards37 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:15 pmI just started tinkering too after Peter’s video on laying favourites pre-match and trading out video popped up on my recommended feed. Going to run a decent sample size but gotta say that 20 match sample with 95% success looks lucky. I’ve done 30 or so with small stakes and had over 20% just head straight below the match start price. Does anyone have stats with a larger sample size?
For example, the data from over several thousand matches shows a player starting at 1.25 will drift 20% around 50% of the time
Thanks Dallas. Just trying to get my head around the concepts. For my experiment I'm using Tennis Trader and assuming the favourite serves first, then looking at a break mid-set (so lets say 2-3 scoreline). I'm using the indicated price there as the exit point.
Back to first principles, if we assume a 100% book (yes I know it won''t quite be the case), then if we just lay all the favourites every match, then you just lose in the long run by the commission taken. So in theory, if the exit "save" strategy (ie as above) generates enough profit vs the "let it run" strategy to overcome the commission paid, then long term it's profitable. Is it as simple as that or am I missing something obvious?
Back to first principles, if we assume a 100% book (yes I know it won''t quite be the case), then if we just lay all the favourites every match, then you just lose in the long run by the commission taken. So in theory, if the exit "save" strategy (ie as above) generates enough profit vs the "let it run" strategy to overcome the commission paid, then long term it's profitable. Is it as simple as that or am I missing something obvious?
Yes, that's pretty much it, your looking at short term variations rather than the overall result of the matchCards37 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:41 pmThanks Dallas. Just trying to get my head around the concepts. For my experiment I'm using Tennis Trader and assuming the favourite serves first, then looking at a break mid-set (so lets say 2-3 scoreline). I'm using the indicated price there as the exit point.
Back to first principles, if we assume a 100% book (yes I know it won''t quite be the case), then if we just lay all the favourites every match, then you just lose in the long run by the commission taken. So in theory, if the exit "save" strategy (ie as above) generates enough profit vs the "let it run" strategy to overcome the commission paid, then long term it's profitable. Is it as simple as that or am I missing something obvious?