BITCOIN as an alternative to regular currency

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jimibt
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BFDon wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:51 am
It's rough out there but some context is needed. YTD S&P down 21.8%, Amazon 39%, Tesla 46%. Gold had a nice run in January but essentially flat over 2 years, no better than BTC or ETH. It will be interesting if we continue this bearish macro outlook just how much crypto will fall
i think also the dominance of BTC needed to be addressed in some way as the disparity between the prices of the top 5 cryptos were very skewed. whether that will rebalance, who knows but as you say, this isn't totally confined to the crypto space. that said, this has provided great opportunity for placing both long and shorts on the crypto futures market with minimal leverage, so for me, has pushed my strategies to new levels, therefore is something that can't be *bought* ;)

(fwiw - i gave up investing in cryptos via the spot markets in jan this year after being introduced to a watered down version of fx style trading using futures. the space is still immature and feels like there is room to make some moves, despite the madnesses of BTC. that said, when the king coughs, everyone rushes to hand him tissues, so nothing lives in total isolation in this space).

News which could impact crypto
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The market does not seem yet to be bottomed out. Especially, that there is a FOMC meeting on June 14-15th this week, which is quite a fundamental event for the week which will confirm the next steps for this rate hiking cycle.
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Euler
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Naffman
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Euler wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:52 pm
This is a good thread: -

https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1536476104986267648
The irony of it all :lol:

In Adam Todd news, Digitex market cap gone from a high of 104 million to now just over 23k :lol:
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jimibt
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Naffman wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:01 pm
Euler wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:52 pm
This is a good thread: -

https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1536476104986267648
The irony of it all :lol:

In Adam Todd news, Digitex market cap gone from a high of 104 million to now just over 23k :lol:
in fairness, he produced a nice little article about the whole process: https://blockster.com/scam-or-no-scam/. warts 'n all
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Euler
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Running a business has never been about being a good salesman, you need to deliver on your promises or else you are just a salesman, not a viable business.
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Euler
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Full-on meltdown now across the Crypto universe.

You will only get to see who is naked when the tide goes out and it looks like there will be a lot of naked people flaying around on the rocks. I didn't realise that there were so many dodgy ETF style companies out there. Surely they must have known that volatility was going to kill them at a moment like this?
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Naffman
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Euler wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:43 am
Full-on meltdown now across the Crypto universe.

You will only get to see who is naked when the tide goes out and it looks like there will be a lot of naked people flaying around on the rocks. I didn't realise that there were so many dogy ETF style companies out there. Surely they must have known that volatility was going to kill them at a moment like this?
Feels so reminiscent of Football Index albeit on a much much larger scale, holders can see the warning flags but will keep buying more and more as it continues down.

Real estate next…
Trader Pat
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Herd stupidity at its worst
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alexmr2
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BFDon wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:51 am
It's rough out there but some context is needed. YTD S&P down 21.8%, Amazon 39%, Tesla 46%. Gold had a nice run in January but essentially flat over 2 years, no better than BTC or ETH. It will be interesting if we continue this bearish macro outlook just how much crypto will fall
Yes, crypto is way down but so is the stock market and a lot of other alternative investments. Even cash is worth a decent % less this year going by energy, food and fuel prices so pick your poison.

Everything was way too high in 2020/2021 so it's only natural for all these assets to revert back to the mean. For crypto the outfall is a lot worse because of the higher risk:reward nature.

I think some cryptos will suffer the same fate as LUNA and go to 0 but I believe a lot will recover and be used more in the future. The concept of a digital currency is just too useful the way things are going.

I don't think people should invest more than 1-2% of their total savings or net worth in crypto but recall some hedge fund managers stating that there is more risk/value to be lost by not owning any than putting 1% of their capital into it. It has to be an amount that won't make a difference if you lose all of it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fVzWE0JwRw
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xtrader16
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Real estate next…


Lets hope so.
BFDon
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alexmr2 wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:05 pm
BFDon wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:51 am
It's rough out there but some context is needed. YTD S&P down 21.8%, Amazon 39%, Tesla 46%. Gold had a nice run in January but essentially flat over 2 years, no better than BTC or ETH. It will be interesting if we continue this bearish macro outlook just how much crypto will fall
Yes, crypto is way down but so is the stock market and a lot of other alternative investments. Even cash is worth a decent % less this year going by energy, food and fuel prices so pick your poison.

Everything was way too high in 2020/2021 so it's only natural for all these assets to revert back to the mean. For crypto the outfall is a lot worse because of the higher risk:reward nature.

I think some cryptos will suffer the same fate as LUNA and go to 0 but I believe a lot will recover and be used more in the future. The concept of a digital currency is just too useful the way things are going.

I don't think people should invest more than 1-2% of their total savings or net worth in crypto but recall some hedge fund managers stating that there is more risk/value to be lost by not owning any than putting 1% of their capital into it. It has to be an amount that won't make a difference if you lose all of it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fVzWE0JwRw
It's staggering to think where the markets were at the end of last year from the pandemic lows. The SPX more than doubled in value. But it's an example of how hard it is to time the market, a lot of people went to cash for that run.

Agreed about crypto. There's been a lot of badly managed risk which is now unwinding and I have little confidence in the vast majority of coins but there's also some very smart, successful people committed to building and i'm bullish on BTC and ETH long term. It is certainly no replacement for stocks in an investment portfolio but the risk warrants a small holding as you say with a long term view. I'm fully prepared to lose everything i've put in
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jamesedwards
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xtrader16 wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:48 pm
Real estate next…


Lets hope so.
No chance. Population growing far faster than homes can ever be built. ↑↑↑demand + ↑supply = ↑↑price.
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Naffman
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jamesedwards wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:23 pm
xtrader16 wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 8:48 pm
Real estate next…


Lets hope so.
No chance. Population growing far faster than homes can ever be built. ↑↑↑demand + ↑supply = ↑↑price.
It looks fairly bad here but AUS/NZ/CAN look like they're in real trouble
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blablok
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19k and dropping...
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Euler
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When I was discussing this today, it almost looks like some stops were triggered at 20k at BTC and 1k on ETH.
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