My Racing System Stats

[csewell1987]

Is this system based on form data or price data?

[B-Rex]

Is this system based on form data or price data?

No / No Let's just say it is related to 'volume' data and that's about all I can reveal.

Currently my live test is only actually doing the Back bets though, as the Lays only add about 10% extra profit, but means when I have a losing race i am losing a lot more, so it's a more swingy experience. I will look to bring those in, from month 3+ probably when I can consider my data a little bit more reliable.

Although, I am going up to the dizzy heights of £1.50 stakes today

I'll post the live results against turnover hopefully in the next few days

[Dublin_Flyer]

By the way, if anyone happens to know:
I'd be very interested to know how the last 12 months have faired in terms of number of 3-digit odds winners, versus other years.

I can look into it myself at some point, but if anyone happens to already know then it might save me a couple of hours poking around! Thanks

All Weather seems to have an increase in recent years and a higher variance.

[B-Rex]

By the way, if anyone happens to know:
I'd be very interested to know how the last 12 months have faired in terms of number of 3-digit odds winners, versus other years.

I can look into it myself at some point, but if anyone happens to already know then it might save me a couple of hours poking around! Thanks

All Weather seems to have an increase in recent years and a higher variance.

Thanks! That's really interesting

Also I just had a quick look at the live test results, and did the Profit / Turnover chart

[firlandsfarm]

A few years back, maybe 4 or 5, maybe more, as part of a review of BSP market efficiency I did a review of BSP rounded to tick points for all ticks and it surprised me how accurate they were to outcome. I looked at both laying as well as backing returns but couldn't see a pattern for profitability ... maybe I missed it. If you have found a way to profit from the higher odds runners well done.

[B-Rex]

A few years back, maybe 4 or 5, maybe more, as part of a review of BSP market efficiency I did a review of BSP rounded to tick points for all ticks and it surprised me how accurate they were to outcome. I looked at both laying as well as backing returns but couldn't see a pattern for profitability ... maybe I missed it. If you have found a way to profit from the higher odds runners well done.

Well just to be clear, i'm not looking at odds too specifically, as mentioned it is more related to where the money is/isn't going, using a very particular lense. As I say, I would highly doubt anyone is really looking at the data I am collecting, especially in the specific way I am looking at it.

It is just the way the system seems to play out, that results will go sideways and slightly upwards, until a big winner comes in, which will jump the profit up, which then maintains / more sidways until the next one, etc.

I am not taking EVERY high odds pick, as seem to average about 3 picks per race. But seems when one does come in, most of the time I have backed it. The exception being when we had a winner around 550 a couple of months ago, I had layed it it was only a small loss but the missed profit was a big shame!

I also try to filter out the ones that are very very high odds anyway because no way i can get enough data for those to consider any results reliable, probably for a few years to come, and largely just increases the bleeding on a day to day basis. I don't want to have to wait months for something epic to undo all of that pain, so I do have a cut-off. But the cut-off is based on odds close to the off, given that BSP odds cannot be read prior. So there are occasions where i've had very big winners that are above my limits, because the price drifted a lot in the last minutes. Those are the best!