Renk's Win Lay System

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Renk
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Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 25/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.


What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.

NOTE: THIS IS A VIRTUAL TEST. I DO NOT PLACE REAL BETS AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE AS YOU CAN SEE THIS IS A SYSTEM WHICH IS UNDER-DEVELOPMENT!
Last edited by Renk on Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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wearthefoxhat
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Looks good.

As you say, the art of finding the right selection(s) to Lay, is the key. Many systems that Lay as higher odds fall over by randomly laying any old 10/1 to 50/1 shot. The right amount over time, do get up to win, but with care, can be avoided.

Good luck with your endeavour.
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megarain
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It's good to make a start.

11 selections may be a trifle premature to go public but all anyone can do is try.

I would have chosen a less exposed racing market - closing prices are pretty accurate and sort of feel at best you will churn money backwards and forwards (if u can handle the inevitable swings).

Hope this thread is still active in a year.
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ShaunWhite
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What does #3 mean?
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 50/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.

Here is a picture of my selections and results so far. (it is only 2 days and 11 selection)

Image

What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.
Not really a system because you haven't said how you pick the horses. Are you picking them at random from the selections that match the criteria?

Given that you're laying horses at 50/1, don't you think a sample of 11 is not only small but not even worth mentioning? Get a 50/1 loser and you've lost £500. You'd still be on a 92% strike rate but you'd be making a heavy loss. And as Shaun alluded to, what does "There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection" mean?

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the project's doomed. ;) It's a common pitfall to seek a high percentage of winners over value and an edge, but the bottom line is if you lay horses at 50/1 you need 98% losers just to break even but if you back horses at 3/1 you only need 25% winners, which is easier to achieve.
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Renk
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:11 pm
Renk wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 50/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.

Here is a picture of my selections and results so far. (it is only 2 days and 11 selection)

Image

What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.
Not really a system because you haven't said how you pick the horses. Are you picking them at random from the selections that match the criteria?

Given that you're laying horses at 50/1, don't you think a sample of 11 is not only small but not even worth mentioning? Get a 50/1 loser and you've lost £500. You'd still be on a 92% strike rate but you'd be making a heavy loss. And as Shaun alluded to, what does "There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection" mean?

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the project's doomed. ;) It's a common pitfall to seek a high percentage of winners over value and an edge, but the bottom line is if you lay horses at 50/1 you need 98% losers just to break even but if you back horses at 3/1 you only need 25% winners, which is easier to achieve.

Hi; first of all I've read all comments above and this is going to be an broad answer for all of you friends.

At first I want to explain how I pick horses. I've been analysing horse racing since 2015 when I created a Twitter account for this. I've been tipping horses from UK Races for my Turkish followers on there. I really love UK races. I follow the flat season very closely each year. So what I do is clear I think. And now I want to explain how I pick horses. I have some rules by picking a lay horse. There are pace of the race, draw of the horse, handicap of the horse and jockey/trainer form at the top of the line for me. But also I consider horses' current form by watching their last couple of races. These are the top of the line rules for me by chosing a horse to lay. But there is an very important rule also which is claimers.

As you can see yesterday I lay a horse "Stormingin" I lay this horse because of apprantice (7lb claimer) if you watch the race you can see that that 7lb claimer apprantice could not do anything on the horse. Ran very wide from start to end; did not even use a proper whip on the horse and horse placed 2nd. So this kind of inexperienced riders has an effect on picking horses for me also.

Also one of you asked me about the 3rd rule. Right, that is not clear. Let me explain it. That means; I will finish each rally when 25th lay resulted. The idea here is I believe that it is gonna be more stressfull above 25th. It is kinda relaxing, renewal of the rally. So as I planned; I started with a 1000 Euro/Pound; then I will be finishing it after 25th selection ran. On the other hand I made a mistake let me fix it; ideally this system should be laying horses between 10/1 and 25/1 odds. By that way I will be having a chance to make mistake and that's not going to ruin my rally. I will be just even at the end. I really think that I can finish a rally of 25 selections without losing more than 1.

I did 11/11 at the moment. There is only 14 to go. And we'll see it here I'll be sharing my tips day by day.
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:35 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:11 pm
Renk wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 50/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.

Here is a picture of my selections and results so far. (it is only 2 days and 11 selection)

Image

What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.
Not really a system because you haven't said how you pick the horses. Are you picking them at random from the selections that match the criteria?

Given that you're laying horses at 50/1, don't you think a sample of 11 is not only small but not even worth mentioning? Get a 50/1 loser and you've lost £500. You'd still be on a 92% strike rate but you'd be making a heavy loss. And as Shaun alluded to, what does "There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection" mean?

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the project's doomed. ;) It's a common pitfall to seek a high percentage of winners over value and an edge, but the bottom line is if you lay horses at 50/1 you need 98% losers just to break even but if you back horses at 3/1 you only need 25% winners, which is easier to achieve.

Hi; first of all I've read all comments above and this is going to be an broad answer for all of you friends.

At first I want to explain how I pick horses. I've been analysing horse racing since 2015 when I created a Twitter account for this. I've been tipping horses from UK Races for my Turkish followers on there. I really love UK races. I follow the flat season very closely each year. So what I do is clear I think. And now I want to explain how I pick horses. I have some rules by picking a lay horse. There are pace of the race, draw of the horse, handicap of the horse and jockey/trainer form at the top of the line for me. But also I consider horses' current form by watching their last couple of races. These are the top of the line rules for me by chosing a horse to lay. But there is an very important rule also which is claimers.

As you can see yesterday I lay a horse "Stormingin" I lay this horse because of apprantice (7lb claimer) if you watch the race you can see that that 7lb claimer apprantice could not do anything on the horse. Ran very wide from start to end; did not even use a proper whip on the horse and horse placed 2nd. So this kind of inexperienced riders has an effect on picking horses for me also.

Also one of you asked me about the 3rd rule. Right, that is not clear. Let me explain it. That means; I will finish each rally when 25th lay resulted. The idea here is I believe that it is gonna be more stressfull above 25th. It is kinda relaxing, renewal of the rally. So as I planned; I started with a 1000 Euro/Pound; then I will be finishing it after 25th selection ran. On the other hand I made a mistake let me fix it; ideally this system should be laying horses between 10/1 and 25/1 odds. By that way I will be having a chance to make mistake and that's not going to ruin my rally. I will be just even at the end. I really think that I can finish a rally of 25 selections without losing more than 1.

I did 11/11 at the moment. There is only 14 to go. And we'll see it here I'll be sharing my tips day by day.
Sorry, I'm still not clear. Do you mean you're only using the system for 25 races and then you quit?

I'm afraid your system is flawed. There may have been a 7lb claimer on a selection but that's reflected in the price. 7lb claimers eventually become 5lb claimers and they do that by winning races! So when they win a race you'll be losing £500!
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Renk
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Hello everyone; first rally goes very well it is %100 strike rate at the moment with 11 wins out of 11 selections.

Today I did not like Kempton and Lingfield cards. I've just picked two lay horses. Let me explain that;

First one is in Lingfield-Race 8-Central City. This is a race will be running not that fast and Central City is not a type of horse who will make benefit from this slow/even pace. Horse is obviously out of form although carries a heavy weights. Apprantice is a 7lb claimer who never won a race so far, also this rider ran 7 times with this horse and they did nothing. As a result I do not see any chance for this horse here. Current odds for him is 23/1 on exchange market. So I lay this horse.

Second selection is in Kempton Park-Race 5-Rakematiz. There is a big fav in this race and I think it has every chance here. My lay selection carries heavier weight than fav. It is a 8 years old gelding who is out of from currently which is obvious. He finished 13 length behind the winner in a similar race over 12 furlongs like today last time out. I won't expect more to come from this gelding tonight. This is currently 24/1 in the market. I pick this as a second lay selection for today.

See you after race results.
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Renk
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:44 pm
Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:35 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:11 pm

Not really a system because you haven't said how you pick the horses. Are you picking them at random from the selections that match the criteria?

Given that you're laying horses at 50/1, don't you think a sample of 11 is not only small but not even worth mentioning? Get a 50/1 loser and you've lost £500. You'd still be on a 92% strike rate but you'd be making a heavy loss. And as Shaun alluded to, what does "There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection" mean?

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say the project's doomed. ;) It's a common pitfall to seek a high percentage of winners over value and an edge, but the bottom line is if you lay horses at 50/1 you need 98% losers just to break even but if you back horses at 3/1 you only need 25% winners, which is easier to achieve.

Hi; first of all I've read all comments above and this is going to be an broad answer for all of you friends.

At first I want to explain how I pick horses. I've been analysing horse racing since 2015 when I created a Twitter account for this. I've been tipping horses from UK Races for my Turkish followers on there. I really love UK races. I follow the flat season very closely each year. So what I do is clear I think. And now I want to explain how I pick horses. I have some rules by picking a lay horse. There are pace of the race, draw of the horse, handicap of the horse and jockey/trainer form at the top of the line for me. But also I consider horses' current form by watching their last couple of races. These are the top of the line rules for me by chosing a horse to lay. But there is an very important rule also which is claimers.

As you can see yesterday I lay a horse "Stormingin" I lay this horse because of apprantice (7lb claimer) if you watch the race you can see that that 7lb claimer apprantice could not do anything on the horse. Ran very wide from start to end; did not even use a proper whip on the horse and horse placed 2nd. So this kind of inexperienced riders has an effect on picking horses for me also.

Also one of you asked me about the 3rd rule. Right, that is not clear. Let me explain it. That means; I will finish each rally when 25th lay resulted. The idea here is I believe that it is gonna be more stressfull above 25th. It is kinda relaxing, renewal of the rally. So as I planned; I started with a 1000 Euro/Pound; then I will be finishing it after 25th selection ran. On the other hand I made a mistake let me fix it; ideally this system should be laying horses between 10/1 and 25/1 odds. By that way I will be having a chance to make mistake and that's not going to ruin my rally. I will be just even at the end. I really think that I can finish a rally of 25 selections without losing more than 1.

I did 11/11 at the moment. There is only 14 to go. And we'll see it here I'll be sharing my tips day by day.
Sorry, I'm still not clear. Do you mean you're only using the system for 25 races and then you quit?

I'm afraid your system is flawed. There may have been a 7lb claimer on a selection but that's reflected in the price. 7lb claimers eventually become 5lb claimers and they do that by winning races! So when they win a race you'll be losing £500!
I know that how apprantice ran out their claims pal. I take that as an approach. 7lb claimers who ride poorly gives me a trust on laying a horse; this is what I say. And I am not quitting after 25 races. I am planning to take a break after 25 races. I am planning to make a 4 rallies in a month. But I am not sure that this is a system which is under development at the moment. So give it a little chance. We'll see is it gonna work or not. It is a virtual system, that's all I said.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:49 pm
I know that how apprantice ran out their claims pal. I take that as an approach. 7lb claimers who ride poorly gives me a trust on laying a horse; this is what I say. And I am not quitting after 25 races. I am planning to take a break after 25 races. I am planning to make a 4 rallies in a month. But I am not sure that this is a system which is under development at the moment. So give it a little chance. We'll see is it gonna work or not. It is a virtual system, that's all I said.
Fair enough. After you've got another 39 winning lays you'll be in a profitable position where one losing lay can only blow the profits you've made from 2 rallies and 2 weeks work. Until then, one loser potentially blows all your profits so far and leaves you with losses. Good luck. :)
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Renk
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:57 pm
Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:49 pm
I know that how apprantice ran out their claims pal. I take that as an approach. 7lb claimers who ride poorly gives me a trust on laying a horse; this is what I say. And I am not quitting after 25 races. I am planning to take a break after 25 races. I am planning to make a 4 rallies in a month. But I am not sure that this is a system which is under development at the moment. So give it a little chance. We'll see is it gonna work or not. It is a virtual system, that's all I said.
Fair enough. After you've got another 39 winning lays you'll be in a profitable position where one losing lay can only blow the profits you've made from 2 rallies and 2 weeks work. Until then, one loser potentially blows all your profits so far and leaves you with losses. Good luck. :)
I love horse racing; and it is not a problem that. I am planning to make a system that I place bets but I don't lose. That's why I aim to create one. Also I believe maths and statistic. If there are 10 runners and I lay one I'll have %90 winning chance by my side. If I do my homework I won't be losing by %10 percent chance. This system will be better on turf. Cuz there will be races which is gonna be taking place on softer/heavier grounds for instance and there will be horses who were bad on that kind of goings. There will be races which offers a serious draw effect and etc... If you do your homework well then no need to worry. I'll be here after two weeks hope you'll be here bro. Take care.
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to75ne
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whats the reason for 2 weeks, why not 3 or 4 or 5? surely you would be better to wait for the flat turf season to return in earnest?
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Realrocknrolla
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I love threads like this. I just wish they would last longer.
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Derek27
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Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:02 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:57 pm
Renk wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:49 pm
I know that how apprantice ran out their claims pal. I take that as an approach. 7lb claimers who ride poorly gives me a trust on laying a horse; this is what I say. And I am not quitting after 25 races. I am planning to take a break after 25 races. I am planning to make a 4 rallies in a month. But I am not sure that this is a system which is under development at the moment. So give it a little chance. We'll see is it gonna work or not. It is a virtual system, that's all I said.
Fair enough. After you've got another 39 winning lays you'll be in a profitable position where one losing lay can only blow the profits you've made from 2 rallies and 2 weeks work. Until then, one loser potentially blows all your profits so far and leaves you with losses. Good luck. :)
I love horse racing; and it is not a problem that. I am planning to make a system that I place bets but I don't lose. That's why I aim to create one. Also I believe maths and statistic. If there are 10 runners and I lay one I'll have %90 winning chance by my side. If I do my homework I won't be losing by %10 percent chance. This system will be better on turf. Cuz there will be races which is gonna be taking place on softer/heavier grounds for instance and there will be horses who were bad on that kind of goings. There will be races which offers a serious draw effect and etc... If you do your homework well then no need to worry. I'll be here after two weeks hope you'll be here bro. Take care.
You're talking complete bollocks and have obviously been to the Kahin school of maths and statistics. You might have a 90% chance of winning but you're betting at 1/20 so you'll still lose. If you understood anything about maths you'd realise that. Guaranteed losing system and a complete waste of time - I'm just trying to save you the bother but you'll find out yourself in due course.
Trader Pat
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A new year, a new variation of "Lay the 0-0 draw"

Has Martin Gale made an appearance yet in 2022?
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