Renk's Win Lay System

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Renk
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Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:24 pm
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Renk wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 25/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.


What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.

NOTE: THIS IS A VIRTUAL TEST. I DO NOT PLACE REAL BETS AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE AS YOU CAN SEE THIS IS A SYSTEM WHICH IS UNDER-DEVELOPMENT!
First rally has completed by succesfully. Strike rate is %96. P/L is +125. Winning selections is 24 out of 25 selections. Here is final picture of the excel.

https://imgur.com/a/nVICf5g

I highlighted couple of races with yellow and red the only losing selection. Idea is in real life situation I'll be backing this horse during the race cuz they were travelling very well during the race. By that way I will be avoiding losts.

Now you can criticize me about what I think! I'll be happy to hear that comments by that way I can improve myself cuz I am a begginer of this betfair thing and I want to learn.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:10 pm
I highlighted couple of races with yellow and red the only losing selection. Idea is in real life situation I'll be backing this horse during the race cuz they were travelling very well during the race. By that way I will be avoiding losts.

Now you can criticize me about what I think! I'll be happy to hear that comments by that way I can improve myself cuz I am a begginer of this betfair thing and I want to learn.

Problem you have Renk is even though you've only had one loss you've had 3 seconds including one priced at 30. Your criteria is to lay runners that you believe have no chance of winning but still three of them have come second. It only takes one of those three to win and you're looking at 2 losses overall and potentially a hefty red. You're also now talking about backing horses that are travelling well which will eliminate your losses. You're talking about getting every decision in running right to make that work, get it wrong and you're looking at an ever bigger red. Ask any of the guys who trade in running and have spent years learning how to race read and they'll tell you how difficult that is.

Nobody here is trying to disrespect you or rain on your parade but most of us have seen this kind of system dozens of times and we know how they end. The only good thing here is that you're not using real money so in the end there'll be no harm done.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:06 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:48 pm
Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:46 pm
Did I do something wrong? I just try to create a system.
I think what you did wrong was to come onto a forum with some very experienced professional gamblers, and then not appear to think seriously about the advice they very generously gave you. You've effectively said that you know more than everyone with decades of experience and that comes across as disrespectful and perhaps why you're being treated disrespectfully now?

Don't take it too seriously though, we know new people can get a little over excited when they think they've found an edge so just reset, and if you start to take it seriously I'm sure people here will try to help.
I did not act disrespectful against anyone. I did not say I am better or I know more than anyone... I just explained what I was trying to achieve and all I got is humiliating answers...
You got 1 loss out of 25, if your average odds was say 25, then you would say youve broken even, presumably your average price was about 18, so you're very slightly better, but on just 25 races that's insignificant.
Have a think about the maths a minute, then let me know what you think?
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:10 pm
Renk wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Hello everyone; yesterday I was thinking about trading system on horse racing. And eventually I ended up with an idea of laying outsiders to win. This is probably not a fresh idea that I found. But here is the idea; I put some characteristic on it.

1)I lay between 10/1 and 25/1 (in my test I lay some bigger odds but ideally it should be between like that)
2)I don't lay SP odds, I analyse race and before the all races run I place a lay bet on the current odds.
3)There are rallies; each rally last after 25th selection.
4)Each bet is stake 10. (stake 10 means 10 pound/euro)

I virtually tested my system and it works perfectly. I am on %100 strike rate at the moment; it is 11 out of 11. That's great. Of course this may be about a little bit luck too but I think that I am good at analysing horses and I do not make mistakes over these kind of outsiders in my opinion.


What do you say about it? Here is an gogle drive link also for online excel.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

I really want to know your thoughts about it. I'll be uptading this post day by day.

NOTE: THIS IS A VIRTUAL TEST. I DO NOT PLACE REAL BETS AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE AS YOU CAN SEE THIS IS A SYSTEM WHICH IS UNDER-DEVELOPMENT!
First rally has completed by succesfully. Strike rate is %96. P/L is +125. Winning selections is 24 out of 25 selections. Here is final picture of the excel.

https://imgur.com/a/nVICf5g

I highlighted couple of races with yellow and red the only losing selection. Idea is in real life situation I'll be backing this horse during the race cuz they were travelling very well during the race. By that way I will be avoiding losts.

Now you can criticize me about what I think! I'll be happy to hear that comments by that way I can improve myself cuz I am a begginer of this betfair thing and I want to learn.
A few things to think about. You haven't accounted for commission, 2% on £240 is £4.80. If you were doing this for real would you be content with £120.20 having risked £1000 to get it?

What's the best you could have done? 25 out of 25 winners would net £245 after commission.

What's the worst that could happen? 2 losing lays out of 25 would have wiped out all your profits or left you £200 down. 3 losers and most of your £1000 bank could have gone.

It may seem like a good idea to back the horses that are going to win during the race but I have some bad news for you. You can't place bets after the race has been run. Don't think you would have only backed the winner and not any of the losers. Every horse you back means you'll lose that precious £10. Prices change rapidly in-running so there's a fair chance the price of the winner would have collapsed before your bet gets matched, so you would win even less.

There are much, much safer and easier ways to make money on the exchange, with less risk and more reward.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:10 pm
Now you can criticize me about what I think! I'll be happy to hear that comments by that way I can improve myself cuz I am a begginer of this betfair thing and I want to learn.
My advice would be to observe the inplay market behavior and look for either trading or betting opportunities during a race, not beforehand.
footysystems
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu May 09, 2013 5:57 pm

Kai wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:23 pm
Renk wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:10 pm
Now you can criticize me about what I think! I'll be happy to hear that comments by that way I can improve myself cuz I am a begginer of this betfair thing and I want to learn.
My advice would be to observe the inplay market behavior and look for either trading or betting opportunities during a race, not beforehand.
You hit the nail on the head there this is where traders people bettors fall down big time.
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Renk
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:24 pm
Location: Turkey
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Hello; could you please down this thread. I'm honestly ask for this. It has been a pleasure to be here during this time but I realized that there is no place for newcomers. So it is time go.

Besides that; thank you so much for kind ones who inspired and informed me about their feedbacks.
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gazuty
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Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

But you promised many rallies?

How can you drop out now when we are only at the start of our popcorn 🍿?

When does your paid subscription service begin?
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Trader Pat wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:27 pm
Something starting to feel very familiar about this thread.. almost like deja vu

Adios!

Image
Awesome gif Pat 👍
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

gazuty wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:39 am
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:27 pm
Something starting to feel very familiar about this thread.. almost like deja vu

Adios!

Image
Awesome gif Pat 👍

:)
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Please Renk, come back. I followed you and made £65 ish. That will do me.

I love the Renk System. Ive told my wife about it and it’s a game changer.

Don’t go. Please continue 😉
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:04 am
Hello; could you please down this thread. I'm honestly ask for this. It has been a pleasure to be here during this time but I realized that there is no place for newcomers. So it is time go.

Besides that; thank you so much for kind ones who inspired and informed me about their feedbacks.
You said you'd be happy to hear comments about your system and I made a special effort not to be disrespectful in my reply and keep it to the point. Perhaps you should have said, please praise my system or do not reply. :)
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Shame if he does go.

I was really hoping he'd keep having 'rallies' until the inevitable happened and he suffered a few losses, just so he could see for himself it was doomed to fail.

I hope he doesn't go off and commit real money to it.
Last edited by Trader Pat on Wed Jan 12, 2022 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Renk wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:04 am
Hello; could you please down this thread. I'm honestly ask for this. It has been a pleasure to be here during this time but I realized that there is no place for newcomers. So it is time go.

Besides that; thank you so much for kind ones who inspired and informed me about their feedbacks.
Learning to deal with sceptics in general is going to be very much a part of your journey as a tipster or with whatever services you had in mind.

Considering this forum has a high percentage of winners I would say that your average tipster will always face an uphill task, but the overall level of scepticism you received was relatively mild. As you can see people were very much open-minded about your system, for the first few pages especially, and you did get some concrete feedback and food for thought etc. But if you always reply with a "trust me, I know what I'm doing" attitude then people will eventually give up because they've seen this scenario play out many times before and know how that chart ends.

Image

It is probably unlikely that you are going to take any actual advice with you at 25, with youthful exuberance and all that :) Which is OK, as some mistakes you really do have to make on your own in order to learn and progress. You seem like a nice and well-mannered guy overall but your background in television and various social media platforms are always going to invoke a large dose of scepticism, as that sort of skillset would perfectly suit a dodgy tipster, you have to admit.

As you know, the internet is saturated with all sorts of betting services ranging from questionable betting systems to outright scams, very much to our annoyance because it gives a bad name to the industry as a whole, so it would be naive not to expect any sort of scepticism whatsoever. Another reason why tipsters are frowned upon overall is because they can earn a lot of commission from losses made by their followers who bet via links to bookmakers.
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Someone mentioned the D-K effect in the thread. Maybe it's something that the OP can use going forward.

DK.png


Maybe some more Ari could be useful..

Ari.png
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