Pre Kick Off Betting Challenge 2022

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On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

The nature of the challenge would be to see if I have an ability to select value bets, or trades , based on my knowledge of teams and market prices.

Most of the time, I’ll be picking matches to bet on and placing my bet sometime before kick off - could be a few days before the start of the match. And then I’ll be monitoring most of my selections in play live, to adjust my position if required. Most of my picks will involve backing a team in match odds , occasionally laying, and occasionally getting involved in other markets.

I’ll be documenting my selections.

I started this challenge already about 2 weeks ago. So far, these were my pre kick off bets:

01.01.22. Watford vs Tottenham - Back Tottenham at 1.65, for 5% of bank (won).

02.01.22. Getafe vs Real Madrid - Back Real Madrid at 1.65, for 4% of bank (lost).

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - lay Atletico at 1.46% for 2% of bank (lost).

Mallorca vs Barcelona - Lay Barcelona at 2.28, for 2% of bank (lost).

03.01.22. Cadiz vs Sevilla - Back Sevilla at 1.80 for 4% of bank (won).

06.01.22. Juventus vs Napoli - Lay Juventus at 1.74 for 2.5% of bank (won).

07.01.22 Trabzonspor vs Malatyaspor - back Trabzonspor at 1.34 for 3% (won).


08.01.22 Real Sociedad vs Celta - lay Sociedad at 1.92, for 2.5% of back (lost).

09.01.22. Milan vs Venezia : Back Milan at 1.60, for 4% (won).

Brest vs Nice: Back Nice at 2.48 for 2% (won).

Hertha vs Koln: back Koln at 2.56 for 2% (won).

Lyon vs PSG: Back PSG at 2.12 for 2% if Veratti, Mbappe, Icardi, Marquiniois start (lost).

Roma vs Juventus: Back Juventus at 2.32 for 2% (won).

Braga vs Famalicao: Back Braga at 1.6 for 3% (lost).

10.01.2022. Espanyol vs Elche: Back Espanyol at 1.90 for 3% (lost).

Torino vs Fiorentina: back Fiorentina at 2.40, at 1.5% if Vlahovic is playing and Belotti isn’t (lost).

Fenerbahce vs Adana: Back over 2.5 goals at 1.81 for 2% (won)

14.01.2022: Malatyaspor vs Goztepe: Back Goztepe at 2.54 for 2.5% (won).

Besiktas vs Gaziantep: Lay Besiktas at 1.47 for 1% (lost).
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Pre match bets for Saturday 15 Jan:

Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor - Back Trabzonspor at 2.56 for 2% of bank.

St Etienne vs Lens - Back Lens at 2.02 for 2.5% of bank.

Darmstadt vs Karlsruhe - Back Darmstadt at 1.88 for 2.5% of bank.

St Pauli vs Erzgebirge - Back St Pauli at Half Time market at 1.96, for 2.5 %of bank.
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Why do all the challenge threads have to give themselves a head start with all their profitable back bets first ?! Why not just start from zero. Though to be fair, it’s very difficult to tell if you are up or down with your staking % of bank etc . I just assumed you are up, as you likely wouldn’t have posted it otherwise. Easier to just stake in pounds or euros isn’t it ?


My euro millions challenge thread is starting here too.

Yesterday I predicted 6, 17, 25, 31, 46, 9 , 12.

So got off to a fairly decent start. Next weeks numbers are 4, 20, 24, 41, 44, 7, 11
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

It looks more like a formatting challenge you've got going there friend, not using any spreadsheets or anything? It sounds like you'll be utilizing different strategies and mixing trading with betting so could be difficult to keep track of things overall.

But that's a good point by PapaShango, would be better to start a public challenge from zero for validity purposes etc.

And of course, in the post-covid era much can change before the match kicks off so hopefully you're keeping that in mind when placing bets many days beforehand.
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I've started mine yesterday as well.

£100 win Hajey 28/1, 13:20 Sedgefield: WON £2800 PROFIT

£200 win Fightfortheroses 12/1, 13:50 Sedgefield: WON £2400 PROFIT

Total profit: £5,200 :D
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

PapaShango wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:59 am
Why do all the challenge threads have to give themselves a head start with all their profitable back bets first ?! Why not just start from zero.
I thought they all did - this is the first challenge I've seen that starts with yesterday's bets. :)
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Monitoring bundesliga 2 live matches and also Man City vs Chelsea now.

In my opinion Man City odds are too low at 1.63. I’m lay city for 1%.
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

I'm going to follow Derek - it looks far more profitable :lol:
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Aston Villa vs Man Utd: thinking to back Man Utd at 2.54 for 1.5%. If Ronaldo and Cavani start, no way Man Utd should be that high.

I also gradually increased my Lay stake at Man City match during the first half up to 1.5% liability of bank.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Taking over 3.5 goals at Nurnberg at 2.2 for 2%.
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Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:48 pm
Monitoring bundesliga 2 live matches and also Man City vs Chelsea now.

In my opinion Man City odds are too low at 1.63. I’m lay city for 1%.
Stick to watching football rather than punting on it. 😉
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:16 pm
On_The_Edge wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 12:48 pm
Monitoring bundesliga 2 live matches and also Man City vs Chelsea now.

In my opinion Man City odds are too low at 1.63. I’m lay city for 1%.
Stick to watching football rather than punting on it. 😉
Man City were worth a lay at these odds. Too low.
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

How anyone manages to monitor multi-nation domestic football on a Saturday afternoon and post all their thoughts is beyond me. :)
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Union Berlin at 3.35, Hoffenheim at 2.36. This is wrong. Union should be favourites.

I got out of the market at Trabzonspor for slightly under 1% loss.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:34 pm
How anyone manages to monitor multi-nation domestic football on a Saturday afternoon and post all their thoughts is beyond me. :)
Sadly I didn’t get a chance to watch Man City match. Normally I’d watch. So I had no way to judge the game, only the odds. I wanted to get out of the market for a profit when Man City odds hit approximately 2.2 (I thought it was fair price then), but decided to stay in market way too long.
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