Pre Kick Off Betting Challenge 2022

User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

On_The_Edge wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:20 am
What’s a rally?
It's a new term coined on this forum recently but I doubt it will catch on. ;)

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=24978
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:28 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:20 am
What’s a rally?
It's a new term coined on this forum recently but I doubt it will catch on. ;)

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=24978
5 more pages already! :shock:

Derek if you're going to be pestering the poor guy every time he posts a bet it's going to be a longer thread than Goat's thread :)
User avatar
Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:52 pm
In retrospect pricing Man Utd at 2.82 pre kick off is crazy. They’ve still got guys like Cavani and De Gea, and who do Aston Villa have? Lol.
United actually went slightly above 3 before the off
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Kai wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 1:15 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:28 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 12:20 am
What’s a rally?
It's a new term coined on this forum recently but I doubt it will catch on. ;)

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=24978
5 more pages already! :shock:

Derek if you're going to be pestering the poor guy every time he posts a bet it's going to be a longer thread than Goat's thread :)
What would this thread be if it was nothing but suggested bets on football teams? A back bet on a 1.88 may have a 1.92 chance, or it may have a 1.82 chance. Every bet or suggestion posted here warrants discussion.

Perhaps the OP should have replaced the word 'challenge' with 'diary' in the topic title, and then it would feel more like, read only. :)
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

On_The_Edge wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:45 am
The nature of the challenge would be to see if I have an ability to select value bets, or trades , based on my knowledge of teams and market prices.
OTE (warning do not read on if you are fragile or easily hurt by contrary or challenging views).

And then what? What do you hope to achieve?

Let's assume you do have the ability - so what? Do you want to be the new Peter Webb or Pyschoff? Peter has nurtured a forum and built a reputation over 15+ years of wisdom, kindness, tolerance and suffering fools graciously.

Let's say you don't have the ability, which will be the 98% expected case. You flame out and drift off into the wilderness, crushing your own self worth?

The manner in which you frame your staking does not come with any rationale. Why 1.5%, why not 1.6%, 0.1%, 6.2%?

The size of the bank against the percentage is important. There is a maximum amount of value available to any particuarly strategy. The volume available to meet any of your stated prices is not endless. So, you might not get all of your bank on.

You also have already stated prices and percentages and then have stated that you have "changed your mind". Or that you have done something in play. It strikes at your creditibility as these explanations have an ex post facto ring to them.

Finally, you have stumbled into a group of knowledgable sceptics. Many are long term sucessful users of the Betfair platform. Some in niches, some broader. New partipants of the forum are welcome. But please think about what you are trying to achieve? how you hope to be perceived and how you are going about trying to create your reptuation. To this point, nothing suggests you will be in any way sucessful in building a reptuation, let alone enjoying any form of edge in the market.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Not for the first time, when a thread goes off topic, Gazuty brings us back and nails it. :D
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Gazuty, no need to write a whole tirade. Will reply to your post later when I have time.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Pick for Monday 17 Jan:

Bologna vs Napoli - Back Napoli at 1.98 for 2.5%
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

On_The_Edge wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:32 pm
Gazuty, no need to write a whole tirade. Will reply to your post later when I have time.
Do you even know what "tirade" means?
Gazuty is a highly experienced and successful guy, very politely giving you his valuable opinion for free.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Gazuty, I wanted to write a longer reply. Then I realised there isn’t much to say - specifically in reply to you.

I appreciate the technical points you make , about not being able to get all my stake matched at a certain price , etc - But I know all that already.

About what I hope to achieve, the original motivation for starting the pre kick off challenge- this is something I’d like to elaborate in a separate post here.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

On_The_Edge wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:37 am
Gazuty, I wanted to write a longer reply. Then I realised there isn’t much to say - specifically in reply to you.
You mean you couldn't think of anything to say. :lol:

On_The_Edge wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:37 am
About what I hope to achieve, the original motivation for starting the pre kick off challenge- this is something I’d like to elaborate in a separate post here.
Elaborate (verb): Develop or present (a theory, policy, or system) in further detail.

It's not possible to elaborate or give further detail about what you hope to achieve because you haven't even said what it is you want to achieve. By the time you get around to posting what you hope to achieve, you'll probably realise there's not much to say or you don't know yourself. :)

Instead of posting mindless information about what you're doing and then decide what you'll achieve by it, do it the other way around.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Image
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:09 am

Before I elaborate... what’s wrong anyway with just making a challenge (or diary) for yourself and documenting it on a public forum, without any ulterior motives? I’m sure it’s not the first time someone made a betting challenge on the forum.

What if I said that I hope to achieve exactly what I wrote about in my first post - to see if I can profit from pre kick off bets?
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

On_The_Edge wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:57 am
Before I elaborate... what’s wrong anyway with just making a challenge (or diary) for yourself and documenting it on a public forum, without any ulterior motives? I’m sure it’s not the first time someone made a betting challenge on the forum.

What if I said that I hope to achieve exactly what I wrote about in my first post - to see if I can profit from pre kick off bets?
What do you intend to achieve by posting every transaction on the forum?

The simple way to see if you can profit from pre-match bets is to keep account of them, which I and all serious punters/traders do.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:11 am
The simple way to see if you can profit from pre-match bets is to keep account of them, which I and all serious punters/traders do.
What he said.

Perhaps link to a public google doc, spreadsheet, whatever. Those that want to follow your progress can log on. (I was going to add we could follow "with wonder and awe," but that would be trolling).

Maybe download spreadsheet software from the forum viewforum.php?f=60 or from https://betfairtradingmindgames.blogspot.com/

I suspect in part you want public accountability and you are using the forum for that purpose. It's not really the purpose of the forum and it is just going to attract suspicion and ridicule. And these sorts of challenges are more common than Halley's comet, but they tend to flame out and disappear from view as quickly as Halley's comet.

If you are just doing this for yourself, keep it private. If you are doing it so that the rest of us might learn, then so far we have learned nothing, but we have formed a view. At present it appears you are another hapless mug with no idea. That is not meant to be offensive to you, but it is the impression you are creating. As I have said to you, think about what you are tyring to achieve.
Post Reply

Return to “Sports betting strategies”