In play Betting Diary Challenge 2022

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Derek27
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On_The_Edge wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:03 pm
As for the challenge itself, with the odds that you're backing and laying at you would need a massive edge
What do you mean by this. I’m backing and laying at various odds ranges... lowest odds i laid in the last week was around 1.15, highest I laid was around 2.8
You've backed teams in the 1.6's. Even if they've got a 1.55 chance, it's quite a small profit margin, and a much bigger loss margin if (as everybody does sometimes) get it wrong.
On_The_Edge
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:05 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:03 pm
As for the challenge itself, with the odds that you're backing and laying at you would need a massive edge
What do you mean by this. I’m backing and laying at various odds ranges... lowest odds i laid in the last week was around 1.15, highest I laid was around 2.8
You've backed teams in the 1.6's. Even if they've got a 1.55 chance, it's quite a small profit margin, and a much bigger loss margin if (as everybody does sometimes) get it wrong.
Ok. But it it’s value, then it’s value. No matter what the odds range ...

Over the last 10 days or so, the lowest I backed was at about 1.35 and highest around 2.7.
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
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Location: UK

On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:14 am
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:05 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 pm


What do you mean by this. I’m backing and laying at various odds ranges... lowest odds i laid in the last week was around 1.15, highest I laid was around 2.8
You've backed teams in the 1.6's. Even if they've got a 1.55 chance, it's quite a small profit margin, and a much bigger loss margin if (as everybody does sometimes) get it wrong.
Ok. But it it’s value, then it’s value. No matter what the odds range ...

Over the last 10 days or so, the lowest I backed was at about 1.35 and highest around 2.7.
What did you think the true price of the 1.35 was?
On_The_Edge
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:16 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:14 am
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:05 am

You've backed teams in the 1.6's. Even if they've got a 1.55 chance, it's quite a small profit margin, and a much bigger loss margin if (as everybody does sometimes) get it wrong.
Ok. But it it’s value, then it’s value. No matter what the odds range ...

Over the last 10 days or so, the lowest I backed was at about 1.35 and highest around 2.7.
What did you think the true price of the 1.35 was?
Around 1.25 - 1.30 probably. The pre kick off price a couple of days earlier was around 1.42, and when I saw it, I was surprised because I thought that was too high.

The thing is, even if the true prices of 1.35 was also 1.35 (or even slightly higher), then in the long run if one bets randomly it should average out anyway and get to break even.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:00 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:16 am
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:14 am


Ok. But it it’s value, then it’s value. No matter what the odds range ...

Over the last 10 days or so, the lowest I backed was at about 1.35 and highest around 2.7.
What did you think the true price of the 1.35 was?
Around 1.25 - 1.30 probably. The pre kick off price a couple of days earlier was around 1.42, and when I saw it, I was surprised because I thought that was too high.

The thing is, even if the true prices of 1.35 was also 1.35 (or even slightly higher), then in the long run if one bets randomly it should average out anyway and get to break even.
You thought the true price was 1.25 to 1.3, had the opportunity to back at 1.42, but waited until the price was down to 1.35?

If the true price was 1.3 then in the long run you'd make a 3.85% profit. After 2% commission it's down to 1.77%, resulting in 54% commission!

I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with backing favourites but when I was betting on horseracing I'd be looking for 12/1 shots that had a 7 or 8/1 chance, increasing the potential for profit. Had you considered the back value of the outsiders in all your lay bets on the favourite?
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:03 pm
As for the challenge itself, with the odds that you're backing and laying at you would need a massive edge
What do you mean by this. I’m backing and laying at various odds ranges... lowest odds i laid in the last week was around 1.15, highest I laid was around 2.8
Laying or backing at odds around evens means you'll need a big edge to be profitable. And once you start laying around 2.5 it means you'll have to get it right nearly twice as much as you get it wrong just to break even.

Nobody wants to see you fail but you need to be calculating the probabilities long term not just on one match.
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The Silk Run
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Pat's in the space, the trading space ;)
On_The_Edge
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:24 pm
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:00 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:16 am

What did you think the true price of the 1.35 was?
Around 1.25 - 1.30 probably. The pre kick off price a couple of days earlier was around 1.42, and when I saw it, I was surprised because I thought that was too high.

The thing is, even if the true prices of 1.35 was also 1.35 (or even slightly higher), then in the long run if one bets randomly it should average out anyway and get to break even.
You thought the true price was 1.25 to 1.3, had the opportunity to back at 1.42, but waited until the price was down to 1.35?

If the true price was 1.3 then in the long run you'd make a 3.85% profit. After 2% commission it's down to 1.77%, resulting in 54% commission!

I'm not suggesting there's anything wrong with backing favourites but when I was betting on horseracing I'd be looking for 12/1 shots that had a 7 or 8/1 chance, increasing the potential for profit. Had you considered the back value of the outsiders in all your lay bets on the favourite?
I am running both pre kick and inplay challenges side by side. With this particular one, as I remember, I took it in play at 1.35 because I wanted to watch the match for a bit first. The price actually went down to around 1.30 in play I think. With some teams / leagues I really prefer to watch a bit rather than taking the price pre -off...

As to laying favourites. Yes, I have indeed considered the back value on the outsiders, I've thought about all this quite a while ago. And I do indeed suspect that instead of laying "favourites" at say 2.5, I'd make more profit backing the corresponding outsider at say 4.1. Like at Angers vs St Etienne. I need more more trials though.

But with in play, I'd often seek to lay at odds lower than 2.0 anyway. Sometimes a LOT lower, down to something like 1.02.

It depends. Sometimes I'd use a part of my stake to lay the favourite, the other part to back outsider, as a sort of "hedge" in case it ends in a draw. Since I am trying to trade with minimal amount of watching live, it's not always easy to decide.

Before when I did in play while watching, I'd be happy to back a team a goal down at odds of 8, or whatever, depending on how they play.
Trader Pat
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The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:16 pm
Pat's in the space, the trading space ;)
Good title for a trading podcast. Maybe we could Derek to host it? :)
On_The_Edge
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:32 pm
On_The_Edge wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:56 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:03 pm
As for the challenge itself, with the odds that you're backing and laying at you would need a massive edge
What do you mean by this. I’m backing and laying at various odds ranges... lowest odds i laid in the last week was around 1.15, highest I laid was around 2.8
Laying or backing at odds around evens means you'll need a big edge to be profitable. And once you start laying around 2.5 it means you'll have to get it right nearly twice as much as you get it wrong just to break even.

Nobody wants to see you fail but you need to be calculating the probabilities long term not just on one match.
I don’t understand, why would my perceived edge size be dependent on the average odds I take?

Is it related to that that the ticks are in higher increments at higher odds? And the % ratio between the true price and the market price is accentuated at higher odds?
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:12 pm

I don’t understand, why would my perceived edge size be dependent on the average odds I take?

Is it related to that that the ticks are in higher increments at higher odds? And the % ratio between the true price and the market price is accentuated at higher odds?

When you're straight backing or laying its all about probability. If something is priced at 2 then the market is saying there's a 50% chance of that outcome. 2.5 40%, 3 33% etc.. To make a profit with this kind of approach you have to out perform those probabilities. That's why the edge need to be big. The edge in this case is your knowledge of football but the higher the odds your laying at the more often you have to be right to make a profit.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:35 pm
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:12 pm

I don’t understand, why would my perceived edge size be dependent on the average odds I take?

Is it related to that that the ticks are in higher increments at higher odds? And the % ratio between the true price and the market price is accentuated at higher odds?

When you're straight backing or laying its all about probability. If something is priced at 2 then the market is saying there's a 50% chance of that outcome. 2.5 40%, 3 33% etc.. To make a profit with this kind of approach you have to out perform those probabilities. That's why the edge need to be big. The edge in this case is your knowledge of football but the higher the odds your laying at the more often you have to be right to make a profit.
Well yes, that’s all obvious by definition of odds.

I thought you are referring to something highly specific about certain odd ranges, rather than outperforming probabilities in general. Clearly whenever I bet, I think the chances of something happening are different to the underlying odds, no matter if these odds are 1.1 or 5.1...

And why does the edge have to be big? An edge is an edge... the only difference is that obviously the bigger the edge the bigger the long term profit
Trader Pat
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On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:36 pm
And why does the edge have to be big? An edge is an edge... the only difference is that obviously the bigger the edge the bigger the long term profit
The size of the edge is very important; it can fluctuate, or it can disappear altogether. The bigger the edge the more confident you are and the more you can stake. Edges don't always last so you have to take advantage of them while they exist as long as you don't influence the market.

My point really is that you don't know if you have an edge or not. You'd have to place bets in 100's of markets at different price points before you'll know. And when laying at odds against you're using up more of your bank while figuring that out.
On_The_Edge
Posts: 146
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Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:15 pm
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:36 pm
And why does the edge have to be big? An edge is an edge... the only difference is that obviously the bigger the edge the bigger the long term profit
The size of the edge is very important; it can fluctuate, or it can disappear altogether. The bigger the edge the more confident you are and the more you can stake. Edges don't always last so you have to take advantage of them while they exist as long as you don't influence the market.

My point really is that you don't know if you have an edge or not. You'd have to place bets in 100's of markets at different price points before you'll know. And when laying at odds against you're using up more of your bank while figuring that out.
Sure. But in the end, even when someone doesn't have an edge, I assume they are just going to end break even over a long run. So there's no real risk here.

And since the day of creation of this thread, I placed bets in about 120 markets already.
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:08 pm
Sure. But in the end, even when someone doesn't have an edge, I assume they are just going to end break even over a long run. So there's no real risk here.
Over a large enough sample size you should break even as long as you have a staking plan but even then you would need to be slightly profitable at the point you end the challenge to account for commission.
On_The_Edge wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:08 pm
And since the day of creation of this thread, I placed bets in about 120 markets already.
That's a good number from when you started but imo you would need a minimum of 100 markets for each price point to have any idea. So 100 markets at 2, 100 at 2.1 etc.... So you're talking 1000's. And like I said if you're betting with real money and laying odds against you'd need a big enough bank to deal with fluctuations and losing runs.
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