Recovery System

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

thepressure wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pm
Crazyskier wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pm


I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.

I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.

For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.

CS
I'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.

Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
Sorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?
It's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 64% chance of blowing it.
Last edited by Derek27 on Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Trader724
Posts: 422
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:12 pm
thepressure wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pm


I'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.

Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
Sorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?
It's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 74% chance of blowing it.
84% if you had a few drinks before.
But If you reinvest all your earnings back into
into the strategy, the probability of doubling your  money will be exactly 1/2.
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Crazyskier
Posts: 941
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

thepressure wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:07 am
Crazyskier wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pm
thepressure wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 am
I know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?

If so, any advice?
I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.

I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.

For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.

CS
So advice is to play around but you'll be at breakeven eventually if youre lucky? :) E.g its a losing proposition :) Where is this detailed, i dont see how you can handle 15 losses in a row?
I popped it in bold for you to search ''extended fibonacci sequence''. This allows 15 losses in-a-row to cost you only 167 x starting stake.Good luck.

CS
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Trader724
Posts: 422
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Crazyskier wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:40 pm
thepressure wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:07 am
Crazyskier wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pm


I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.

I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.

For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.

CS
So advice is to play around but you'll be at breakeven eventually if youre lucky? :) E.g its a losing proposition :) Where is this detailed, i dont see how you can handle 15 losses in a row?
I popped it in bold for you to search ''extended fibonacci sequence''. This allows 15 losses in-a-row to cost you only 167 x starting stake.Good luck.

CS
Nothing is more effective in calculating stakes than Kelly criterion.
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Derek27
Posts: 16075
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Trader724 wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:11 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:12 pm
thepressure wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 am


Sorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?
It's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 74% chance of blowing it.
84% if you had a few drinks before.
But If you reinvest all your earnings back into
into the strategy, the probability of doubling your  money will be exactly 1/2.
If you've blown your bank you don't have any earnings to reinvest. If you've doubled your money then the probability of doubling your money is 100%, as you've already done it, or have I misunderstood?
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Trader724
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Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

1-1/e is the chance that you will have to bet a higher stake than the bank but you will still be left with an amount in the bank otherwise it would mean that a reverse martingale would bring you a lot of profit which is not the case.
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Derek27
Posts: 16075
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Trader724 wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 4:40 pm
1-1/e is the chance that you will have to bet a higher stake than the bank but you will still be left with an amount in the bank otherwise it would mean that a reverse martingale would bring you a lot of profit which is not the case.
I'm with you now.
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Realrocknrolla
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Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Love these threads.
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