Re-coup losses

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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gazuty
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Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

If one has an edge "loss recovery" never enters ones's brain.

I accept losses because my strategy is profitable. I don't change stakes based on a loss. To the contrary changing stakes based on a loss seems to me to be an emotional response. The reason I automated was to take away all emotion and all temptation. Loss recovery is a very human and emotional reposne.
oliver123
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Joined: Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:25 am

Never, ever use the Martingale system because at the end of the day you will lose! For me, accept losses, because it happens and don't increase your stakes. Also just keep with a standard stake. This is my humble advice.
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Crazyskier
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gazuty wrote:If one has an edge "loss recovery" never enters ones's brain.

I accept losses because my strategy is profitable. I don't change stakes based on a loss. To the contrary changing stakes based on a loss seems to me to be an emotional response. The reason I automated was to take away all emotion and all temptation. Loss recovery is a very human and emotional reposne.
Ditto 100%. I HAD to as I seemed to be allergic to red and addicted to green and we know what eventually happens to all addictics...
garwoodstud
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Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:41 pm

I regret ever mentioning Loss Recovery. But I would still be interested to know if there is a way to base the amount to bet on the result of the previous race
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gutuami
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garwoodstud wrote:I regret ever mentioning Loss Recovery. But I would still be interested to know if there is a way to base the amount to bet on the result of the previous race
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
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Crazyskier
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garwoodstud wrote:I regret ever mentioning Loss Recovery. But I would still be interested to know if there is a way to base the amount to bet on the result of the previous race
You regret something, yet STILL ask the same question? Hmmm...

The general consensus is to find a strategy that uses either flat stakes, or a percentage (2% - 5%) of bank and still wins over time.

If you need to try to recoup losses because you're not profitable with flat or precentage stakes, then eventually you'll have a really bad losing streak that WILL wipe you out. It's simply a matter of time...
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workpeter
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:29 pm

well martingale system is the most famous using stake to the Nth power (Nth depending on the losing streak before your bank breaks or market limit is reached).
If you were to bet on the fav horse every time, i wouldn't attempt this system unless you could go up to the 10th power (i think the fav losing 10 times in a row is very unlikely).

So using the £2 to the 10th power, the 10th bet after 9 straight losses will will be over £1k, just to recoup the original intended profit.

I wouldn't go above £2 stake. £5 to the 10th power is almost 10k, so you see, £2 is really where you should stay.

So is £2 stakes really worth it?
Well depends on the average price of favourite and likelihood to win. Lets assume the average price is 2.5 with 30% win ratio.

60 races a day, gives you 20 wins so £45 profit a day. However this does not take into consideration 5% commission on profits. That 5% will hurt if you are doing big bets to recoup a losing streak.

I would explore this method using past data over of a year with commission too. If you don't go bust (or close to bust) in your spreadsheet after a years data then its worth doing.

Personally, i think this system will at best break even long term.

I think you would be better of going for value bets on the fav instead. The exchange already gives higher value than bookies, so if you throw in some high unmatched bets which eventually get matched (sometimes) then you got yourself a value bet. Long term this may be promising. However check past data in a spreadsheet to get a feel for what % over starting price you would need to aim for in order to make £££ long term.
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ShaunWhite
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"very unlikely" means it's going to happen.
Could be twice this week, or once this decade, but it's going to happen.
The fact that a fav just lost has no bearing whatsoever on whether the next one will lose.
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Crazyskier
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ShaunWhite wrote:"very unlikely" means it's going to happen.
Could be twice this week, or once this decade, but it's going to happen.
The fact that a fav just lost has no bearing whatsoever on whether the next one will lose.
Indeed. Just google 'gambler's fallacy' for more on this...
garwoodstud
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Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:41 pm

My regret was that I did not just ask is it possible to base a bet on the results of the previous race ? I'm just trying to learn about Guardian and Excel.I could have asked could someone give me a automation rule that gives me a consistant small profit over the long term and there would have been silence.
shakespeare
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 1:43 pm

garwoodstud wrote:My regret was that I did not just ask is it possible to base a bet on the results of the previous race ? I'm just trying to learn about Guardian and Excel.I could have asked could someone give me a automation rule that gives me a consistant small profit over the long term and there would have been silence.
You're probably feeling a bit like under assault and I think the point has been made enough by now.

To answer your question, it's not possible in Guardian automation. It's possible in Excel but with an effort. The Excel templates that Bet Angel gives you will show you all your matched bet amounts, so you could write the information out to a file using a Visual Basic macro. Then you could write a macro to read that file for the next race and thereby get the information from the previous race into the next one. With that information in the spreadsheet, you could use it to work out the next stake size using some formula you like. I'm not suggesting you should do this - it's up to you.

As for knowing whether you won or lost on a race, you'd have to infer it because BA doesn't tell you who won. One technique I use is to see which selection traded at 1.01. Almost all the time that's the way to deduce who won, though not always.
garwoodstud
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Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:41 pm

Thanks for that, very useful.
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Dublin_Flyer
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workpeter wrote:(i think the fav losing 10 times in a row is very unlikely).
I checked into this and it's more likely than you may think, there's been a run of 21 losing bfsp favs already in 2016!

BTW 2 to the 21st power is over 2 mill, good luck trying to get that matched in the 8.35 at Dundalk! :lol:

As a further check I had a look at a random month to see how it goes blindly Martingaling the BFSP fav.
July was the one chosen, day 1 was good, up 3 figures, day 2 was better, up 5 figures, day 3 wasn't so good, down a million. Stopped calculating after that.
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Airliner
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shakespeare wrote:
Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:46 pm
garwoodstud wrote:My regret was that I did not just ask is it possible to base a bet on the results of the previous race ? I'm just trying to learn about Guardian and Excel.I could have asked could someone give me a automation rule that gives me a consistant small profit over the long term and there would have been silence.
You're probably feeling a bit like under assault and I think the point has been made enough by now.

To answer your question, it's not possible in Guardian automation. It's possible in Excel but with an effort. The Excel templates that Bet Angel gives you will show you all your matched bet amounts, so you could write the information out to a file using a Visual Basic macro. Then you could write a macro to read that file for the next race and thereby get the information from the previous race into the next one. With that information in the spreadsheet, you could use it to work out the next stake size using some formula you like. I'm not suggesting you should do this - it's up to you.

As for knowing whether you won or lost on a race, you'd have to infer it because BA doesn't tell you who won. One technique I use is to see which selection traded at 1.01. Almost all the time that's the way to deduce who won, though not always.
Hi Shakespeare,

Very useful reply there. Do you have any idea how long it takes for the results of the races, betfair balance and matched/unmatched/settled bets to filter into the excel files after a race has ended and the market has been suspended?

Like @garwoodstud I'd like to point out that this is in no way for a loss recovery system or anything similar.
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