Another Stupid Martingale Question

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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ShaunWhite
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:10 pm
I'm sure I heard a third one ......
Not quite the same story but the same number...

.....the total number of grains - 18446744073709551615 - was
not only beyond the means of his granaries, but beyond the means
of the granaries of all the world. The formula for arriving at this
number 2^64 — 1 - turns up in another famous legend ....

The Tower of Brahma
This, so the legend has it, is a temple in Benaras. They say that
when the great lord Brahma created the world he put up three
diamond sticks, mounted on a brass plate, beneath the dome that
marks the centre of the world. Upon one of the sticks he placed
64 gold discs. The biggest at the bottom, all decreasing in size,
with the smallest at the top. The temple priests have the tasks
of transposing the discs from one stick to the other, using the
third as an aid. They work day and night, but must transpose only
one disc at a time and must not put a bigger disc on top of a
smaller one. When their task is complete, the legend says, the
world will disappear in a clap of thunder.
Now the total number of transpositions needed to shift the
64 discs is, again, 2^64 - 1, or 18446744073709551615. If every
transposition takes a second it will still take 500000 million years
to get the job done.

(that's taken from a book called Figuring, The Joy of Numbers, I bought it in 1977 when I was 13 and it got me interested in numbers. No wonder I couldn't quite remember the story, I read it 41 yrs ago! :? )
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Derek27
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MugPunter wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:40 am
Thanks for bringing out the cudgel again, did you take the time to look at Gutuami's spread sheet or read Derek's link which included Anit-martingale?
I'm not sure what relevance Gutuami's spreadsheet is because you suggested you would limit your losses to 2% a day. This would mean that a Martingale is impossible, because the Martingale requires risking your entire bank!

I would never have posted that link if I re-read it first. How exactly do you think the anti-Martingale will help you?

24 hours ago you were interested in the Martingale, now you're interested in the complete opposite - you're running around like a headless chicken!
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LeTiss
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 pm
Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?
This is the perfect example, of why not accepting red screens destroys traders more than anything else!

What you need is money management, because if your strategy is winning 66% of the time, why are you considering blowing your whole bank, to try and recover the 33%?
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Derek27
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
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Naffman
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Spam?
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MugPunter
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:24 am
Spam?
No, it's not spam, It was just a "tongue in cheek " question if you were to try and automate a martingale style loss recover system how could you do it.
The original post...
MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
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MugPunter
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:56 am
MugPunter wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:40 am
Thanks for bringing out the cudgel again, did you take the time to look at Gutuami's spread sheet or read Derek's link which included Anit-martingale?
I'm not sure what relevance Gutuami's spreadsheet is because you suggested you would limit your losses to 2% a day. This would mean that a Martingale is impossible, because the Martingale requires risking your entire bank!

I would never have posted that link if I re-read it first. How exactly do you think the anti-Martingale will help you?

24 hours ago you were interested in the Martingale, now you're interested in the complete opposite - you're running around like a headless chicken!
It's all just food for thought.
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jimibt
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Location: Narnia

MugPunter wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:17 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:56 am
MugPunter wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:40 am
Thanks for bringing out the cudgel again, did you take the time to look at Gutuami's spread sheet or read Derek's link which included Anit-martingale?
I'm not sure what relevance Gutuami's spreadsheet is because you suggested you would limit your losses to 2% a day. This would mean that a Martingale is impossible, because the Martingale requires risking your entire bank!

I would never have posted that link if I re-read it first. How exactly do you think the anti-Martingale will help you?

24 hours ago you were interested in the Martingale, now you're interested in the complete opposite - you're running around like a headless chicken!
It's all just food for thought.
hoping you've sated your hunger and have decided that a flexitarian diet is more fullfilling and ultimately self sustaining :D
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Dallas
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MugPunter wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:29 am
gutuami wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:03 am
MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 pm
Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?
just press F9 for updates
Thanks Gutuami, nice sheet!!! Everytime martingale is mentioned the Betangel police come charging out with trudgeon in hand, but I guess they're in the business of selling software subscriptions.
You actually have that part backwards, if ever a guaranteed loss recovery system appeared it would be the best thing that could happen for BA, the automated options required could be added immediately and the software could be marketed as a GUARANTEED way to make money and never lose on sports betting again - and subscriptions would go through the roof.
It would also mean no more upgrades to BA would ever be required again, so the dev team could retire to quiet wooden huts in the Seychelles and Peter could see how his years tending to his lawn - as could everybody willing to purchase the subscription!

Sadly none of that will happen, and all loss recovery systems only have one eventual outcome
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Dallas wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:28 pm
It would also mean no more upgrades to BA would ever be required again, so the dev team could retire to quiet wooden huts in the Seychelles and Peter could see how his years tending to his lawn - as could everybody willing to purchase the subscription!

Sadly none of that will happen, and all loss recovery systems only have one eventual outcome
Nobody really wants that to happen. Who cares about working hard for a few quid if you enjoy it. :)
Emmson
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I'm experienced and now profitable but still struggle with taking a good red, it leads me to have screens like this too often.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Do you look back on your bad trades and note what you could have done better, or done that you shouldn't have?

It looks like the issue isn't not greening-up and taking a red but doing it early enough or letting a trade go too far against you.
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Kneecaps
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3j1gvULxU

A little off topic and I don't want to encourage anyone.

I think this guy makes some sense about a possible martingale system towards the end of the video. The idea of having a stop point and a buy in point.

I use this idea not in a trading sense but more a gambling/hedging model, looking at odds and how often favourites win. I have had success. I keep very detailed records that are updated daily and I am always working through historical data.

:twisted:
CallumPerry
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Location: Wolverhampton

A very basic video about martingale by people who aren't even traders, all recycled material but thought worth sharing as it is one of the V Sauce channels. If you aren't subscribed already, do yourself a favour. They have some brilliant content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DntEoGG7RyY

Also, I really want the little robot. Think it would help my trading if I had a little buddy next to be to fist bump every successful trade like in the video. Perhaps he could even be programmed to yell at you when you tell him you've ballsed up.

On a final note, I think Martingale, to quote the above video, "can work in short bursts" much like the guy in the previous video link shared on this thread was explaining (posted by Kneecaps).

It may be a good idea to scale in and out of positions if you have clear boundaries i.e. 4 lots of doubles MAX. I think that was what he was getting at. I do prefer the add 1 instead of double approach though and crucially the key point here is there should be good reason to adding to a position. Not a 'chance it' mentality but some sort of indicator/feeling/analysis is telling you a move is likely to happen one way or another.
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Derek27
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Kneecaps wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:30 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q3j1gvULxU

A little off topic and I don't want to encourage anyone.

I think this guy makes some sense about a possible martingale system towards the end of the video. The idea of having a stop point and a buy in point.

I use this idea not in a trading sense but more a gambling/hedging model, looking at odds and how often favourites win. I have had success. I keep very detailed records that are updated daily and I am always working through historical data.

:twisted:
I think what the guy says makes sense but it's not a Martingale, not even remotely. As a punter, if I backed a horse at 6/1 and it went out to 10/1 I'd often have more on, but that's simply taking advantage of extra value. The Martingale is pure loss recovery and gambling for no other reason.
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