Another Stupid Martingale Question

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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MugPunter
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Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
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Dallas
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
The short answer is you can't and will never be able to use any form of automated loss recovery with Bet Angel
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LeTiss
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
This software is for trading, not loss chasing.

If you're interested in chasing losers, then you won't last long in this game I'm afraid.

You need to analyse your losses, and understand what went wrong!
You need to analyse your greens, and understand what you did right!

Once you start developing a picture of what works and what doesn't, your emotional need for loss recovery will diminish anyway
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MugPunter
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Dallas wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:16 am
MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
The short answer is you can't and will never be able to use any form of automated loss recovery with Bet Angel
Ok, so you'd have to use Excel then? That's if I wanted to blow my dough!
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jimibt
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:09 am
Dallas wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:16 am
MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
The short answer is you can't and will never be able to use any form of automated loss recovery with Bet Angel
Ok, so you'd have to use Excel then? That's if I wanted to blow my dough!
lol, if you're determined enough not to succeed, then you'll definitely achieve your goal!!

seriously tho', I've looked at quite a few staking approaches (admittedly not martingale) and altho they seem attractive in the warm glow of anticipation, they all suffer from what can only be termed *gambling by hallucination* (GBH!!). if you look at staking systems, you're actually gambling on the liklihood of both the event occurence having a positive outcome and also the liklihood of the occurence of the occurence occurring (ok, too many occurring- but you get he drift [you're betting on the fact that the dice has to spill in your favour this time, given that it's been negative the previous xx times]).

in essence, you may be confusing bank management with loss recovery (or even staking options in general) . try to shift the focus away from recovery and look instead at how to stop the losses occuring, which markets to avoid, when to enter/exit etc, etc. in short, examine your strategy from every angle, look at historical data (if appropriate), model the outcomes if you have the data. basically, give the entire strategy a 3D once over - at regular intervals.

loss recovery is really just a prop to make you feel good after having lost xx trades only to get it all back in one massively over exposed gamble.. (OR NOT!!)
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MugPunter
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:22 am
MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:09 am
Dallas wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:16 am


The short answer is you can't and will never be able to use any form of automated loss recovery with Bet Angel
Ok, so you'd have to use Excel then? That's if I wanted to blow my dough!
lol, if you're determined enough not to succeed, then you'll definitely achieve your goal!!

seriously tho', I've looked at quite a few staking approaches (admittedly not martingale) and altho they seem attractive in the warm glow of anticipation, they all suffer from what can only be termed *gambling by hallucination* (GBH!!). if you look at staking systems, you're actually gambling on the liklihood of both the event occurence having a positive outcome and also the liklihood of the occurence of the occurence occurring (ok, too many occurring- but you get he drift [you're betting on the fact that the dice has to spill in your favour this time, given that it's been negative the previous xx times]).

in essence, you may be confusing bank management with loss recovery (or even staking options in general) . try to shift the focus away from recovery and look instead at how to stop the losses occuring, which markets to avoid, when to enter/exit etc, etc. in short, examine your strategy from every angle, look at historical data (if appropriate), model the outcomes if you have the data. basically, give the entire strategy a 3D once over - at regular intervals.

loss recovery is really just a prop to make you feel good after having lost xx trades only to get it all back in one massively over exposed gamble.. (OR NOT!!)
Thank you, excellent advice! I'm quite new to any form of gambling, prior to betfair and betangel I was interested in forex and cfd trading, I found it rather boring, constantly waiting for a few pips here and there. Sports trading is a lot more exciting with markets opening and closing within minutes, I did learn a few things dabbling in forex, money management etc. I have enough discipline to go after small percentages and have found some very consistent strategies. My only interest in automated loss recovery is greed, I would still implement a stop loss before losing it all. I was just curious about the implementation.
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jimibt
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:51 am
My only interest in automated loss recovery is greed .. [cut][/cut]
whereas greed is pretty much with us from the start, patience and skill take longer to acquire. just a matter of psychologically getting on top of both greed and the associated fantasy before it squashes you.

in a word, let it rant in your left ear for all it's worth - but once you start to ignore and not feed it, it will dissappear. magically at the same time, your patience and skill will come to the fore!! :D
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Derek27
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 am
Yes, I know its stupid, but I'm a benevolent guy who loves to give his money away to hard working punters.
Just out of curiosity, how would you go about implementing a martingale system in Guardian??
I'm feeling suicidal after my losses on Tuesday. What's the best way to go about it?
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Derek27
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Location: UK

MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:51 am
I would still implement a stop loss before losing it all.
If you have a stop loss at 50% of your Bank, it's exactly the same as using a smaller bank and no stop loss - you're still going to lose your bank.
CallumPerry
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To answer the OP, use excel. I thought it would be interesting as a LEARN YOUR LESSON YOU IDIOT exercise to get some past data, come up with some simple scalping rules and then run an imaginary martingale over a MASSIVE period, no prizes for guessing what happened. The longer you do it, you more certain the outcome.

I'd suggest every new trader do that, while playing with real pennies, set up a martingale in practise mode and then see what happened after a few days. Even if it did work, look at your stake sizes and imagine how much this would shake the markets and completely balls everything up. It was all the encouragement I needed to learn, nope, move on.
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jimibt
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callum - i think the best analogy i saw when pushing the badness of martingale to the extremes was the doubling your pennies puzzle: http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.do ... nnies.html

the takeaway conclusion is nice:

These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number.

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
CallumPerry
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm
callum - i think the best analogy i saw when pushing the badness of martingale to the extremes was the doubling your pennies puzzle: http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.do ... nnies.html

the takeaway conclusion is nice:

These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number.

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
I've seen the rice on a chessboard example before, it was in a daft YT cartoon that showed how a prisoner escaped with his life by tricking the queen into a bet she could never win or something like that; one of these stupid pub bet vids. It's shocking how quickly the numbers get BIG and if you're scalping in the last few minutes or doing something in play, you simply don't have that level of liquidity available!

That being said, I have a flutter with martingale if I'm out at the races. At Wolves, if I'm out with my mates at the dogs (very rarely to be fair) with no laptop (obviously) and no clever strategies with me, I'll stake £1 in the first race. If I bust £32 then I'll go home having a good night out, if I'm up after a couple of races happy days. I've been 3 times in the last 3 years and ended up £10+ up so about covered my first loss aha how many traders can still have a silly bet when out? Or do your brains never switch off, I've seen one of PW's videos where he says he can't just have a bet. I'm guessing most others are like that too? I figure if I'm in a position where I'm as muggy of a mug as everyone else, I may as well put up some sort of rules and have clear money management. I'll post next time I go so you lot can keep an eye out for some liquidity in Wolves ;)
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Crazyskier
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' penny stakes into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...
last 7days.jpg
As my Nan used to say, ''look after the pennies, and the pounds look after themselves''

CS
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Dallas
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Crazyskier wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' stakes well below £2 into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...

last 7days.jpg
That's a very impressive set of results CS I'm glad to see its still gone so well for you, you certainly deserve it
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jimibt
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Crazyskier wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' penny stakes into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...

last 7days.jpg

As my Nan used to say, ''look after the pennies, and the pounds look after themselves''

CS
CS- very good results and more importantly, amazing that you've stuck to your guns on that thro thick 'n thin. just shows that having a decent strategy, good money management and a flair for data analysis can reap rewards, even on penny pinching stakes - hats off!!
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