Staking Plan / Loss Recovery | HELP please ...

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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The Silk Run
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Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
Location: United Kingdom

Dear Angels

I'm in need of some help building a SIMPLE staking plan with loss recovery into a system.

I am currently backtesting a in-play Lay system for the Horse Racing Markets. The system is Manual and I recently completed a 1000 cycles of testing with average positive results of 90%, with no lower than 80%.

It's worth mentioning that I am limited to the amount of trading time I have on UK EIRE Horse Racing Markets during the day due to other commitments, so would rather not override this window chasing losses. My daily footprint being 1hr and 30 minutes, 10 markets consecutively ....

Obviously, I need the confidence to take this system forward with a profit, and not a loss.

Your help and knowledge in this matter would be gratefully received.

Kind regards
Minnie LAI
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Dallas
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wearthefoxhat
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The Silk Run wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:10 pm
Dear Angels

I'm in need of some help building a SIMPLE staking plan with loss recovery into a system.

I am currently backtesting a in-play Lay system for the Horse Racing Markets. The system is Manual and I recently completed a 1000 cycles of testing with average positive results of 90%, with no lower than 80%.

It's worth mentioning that I am limited to the amount of trading time I have on UK EIRE Horse Racing Markets during the day due to other commitments, so would rather not override this window chasing losses. My daily footprint being 1hr and 30 minutes, 10 markets consecutively ....

Obviously, I need the confidence to take this system forward with a profit, and not a loss.

Your help and knowledge in this matter would be gratefully received.

Kind regards
Minnie LAI

I wouldn't advocate recovery staking as a rule, but here's one that might help as long as strict money management is used.
(It's preferable to use fixed liability)

recovery.PNG
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foxwood
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Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Ummm - but you say you are doubling your bank every day anyway ... viewtopic.php?f=17&t=18394&p=181577#p181577 :roll:
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The Silk Run
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Location: United Kingdom

Hi Hi Dallas

Thank you for the swift reply, I guess your a Scalper !!! Having read the threads on the attached link it would seem Loss Recovery is Persona Non Grata on this platform !!! Perhaps their could be some future development.

The Worldwide Web is awash with systems, solutions to this problem. Of which I find extremely complicated.

Have a good evening
Minnie LAI
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The Silk Run
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Location: United Kingdom

foxwood wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:31 pm
Ummm - but you say you are doubling your bank every day anyway ... viewtopic.php?f=17&t=18394&p=181577#p181577 :roll:
Their is no value in this reply to my original post, I'm not quite sure why you have posted it. I am simply testing a system and need some help. I already have another established system which I assume you are referring to.

Kind regards
Minnie LAI
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ShaunWhite
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The Silk Run wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:36 pm
The Worldwide Web is awash with systems, solutions to this problem. Of which I find extremely complicated.
The internet is awash with bllsht. Quality information from people who live and breath this industry is rare, but right under your nose. Forum users must have a thousand years of experience between them and look what they're saying, but if you choose to disagree that's your prerogative.
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Derek27
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The Silk Run wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:36 pm
The Worldwide Web is awash with systems, solutions to this problem. Of which I find extremely complicated.
(Glad you're back Shaun :) ).

If you find them extremely complicated, which implies you don't understand them, what makes you think they are solutions?

The bottom line is that raising stakes because your previous bet/trade lost is the same as raising stakes because the moon is in Taurus!
Last edited by Derek27 on Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nero Tulip
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Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm

There is no such thing as 'Loss Recovery'. Life here is a very long sequence of random tests, where you either have probabilistic value or not - also random. Your sequence will almost certainly be shorter than it might, if you use 'loss recovery'... look up 'risk of ruin' which should help.

You may think you'll last a while, and there's a decent chance you will...but eventually this giant probability resolving machine we call the universe, will claim you as another victim of misfortune long before (on average) the non loss recovering, consistent staking, value plodders.
Nero Tulip
Posts: 686
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 4:05 am

The bottom line is that raising stakes because your previous bet/trade lost is the same as raising stakes because the moon is in Taurus!
This is one of the best razors for investing (and many other areas of life), eliminate all decisions for current bet, which are based upon the outcome of previous bets - definition of betting insanity.
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Crazyskier
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Please accept the wisdom of others who have crashed and burned, Minnie.

DO. NOT. INCREASE. STAKES. AFTER. A. LOSS.

Rather, work harder to develop a system that beats the odds consistently on it's own merits. You'll be glad you did long term, I'm quite sure.

CS
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ANGELS15
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Crazyskier wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:04 am
Please accept the wisdom of others who have crashed and burned, Minnie.

DO. NOT. INCREASE. STAKES. AFTER. A. LOSS.

Rather, work harder to develop a system that beats the odds consistently on it's own merits. You'll be glad you did long term, I'm quite sure.

CS
Truer words have never been spoken
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Euler
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At some point in our trading / betting career we have probably glanced, if not done more, on loss recovery. But it's surprising to see it so persistent in the mindset of so many people. It's probably the #1 request we get for 'improvements' to the software. But it's something we will never implement. I just can't bring myself to ever approve it knowing the historic carnage it's wreaked. It's unfortunate that it's so actively encouraged in the industry when it can only ever have one long term outcome.
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jimibt
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i tend to view Loss Recovery systems with an weird awe (with respect to those that employ them). in essence, what they're saying is basically that they've discovered a secret sauce that requires a few losers in order to boost the stake to win the big one, otherwise, keep everything level when you are winnning...

beats me tbh -but each to their own and a bit like politics/religion, you'll never convince those on the opposing side of your wisdom.
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to75ne
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jimibt wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:40 am
beats me tbh -but each to their own and a bit like politics/religion, you'll never convince those on the opposing side of your wisdom.
I would argue that as you cant disprove completely concepts such as Gods etc, and whereas you can disprove completely concepts and systems based on loss recovery, just as you can disprove say flat earth theories; therefore its not like a religious belief where the believer can hide and argue in the cracks where science is still not robustly water tight, such as God of the gaps type arguments.

Flat earth believers (and the like) cant hide in cracks, there are no god of the gap arguments for them, they are either just unaware/uneducated or thick, deliberately delusional or delusional through no fault of their own and therefore mentally ill.
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