Loss recovery

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
Post Reply
MxK
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:03 pm

I'm working with a strategy with a little edge. After a loss I have a series of wins. Even after paper trading 250+ bets.

I want to recover a loss in 4 bets. It's possible in other bots but I like Bet Angel the best. I'm no hero at excel. Can somebody help me to create this with excel? Of course I will pay you for this.
WinLoseWinWin
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:41 pm

Hi MxK
I have toyed with this concept myself but the problem is trying to get Excel to accurately recognise whether or not you have had a win or a loss. Most of the time I can get Excel to give me an accurate result by looking for the lowest last trade value after a race (I focus on horse races - with other events in may be easier because the odds don't move so fast) and then looking in the P/L column to see whether the result is a positive or negative value.
But to give you an example, last week the last trade value on one race was 1.17 on two different horses. One won and I assume the other came second.
My Excel spreadsheet told me I had had a loss when I had actually won.
Another option I have tried is looking at my account balance after each race to see whether it is higher or lower than after the previous race. This works if the races all start on time, but when there is a delay at one meeting, which can sometimes be for 30 minutes or more, there could be several other races that are listed below the delayed race, that start and finish before the delayed race, and the end result is that the formula to check whether the closing account balance is higher or lower than the race listed above no longer works.
I have tried using a macro to copy race results to another sheet within the spreadsheet after they finish, but again this is not always consistently correct either because sometimes a race will appear to be 'in play' and 'suspended' when it has in fact closed.
So in summary, I have tried to do what you want to achieve without success.
But I would be interested to hear whether you find someone who can come up with a solution that works for you.
Cheers
Richard
User avatar
mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

MxK wrote:I'm working with a strategy with a little edge. After a loss I have a series of wins. Even after paper trading 250+ bets.

I want to recover a loss in 4 bets. It's possible in other bots but I like Bet Angel the best. I'm no hero at excel. Can somebody help me to create this with excel? Of course I will pay you for this.
When I first started out this was the sort of strategy I looked at. I never could make anything work. My advice here would be have another look at your sample size. 250 bets isn't a big enough sample to prove if this works or not. many "systems" can go months making money, but quickly become loss making. I am always particularly wary of relying on a loss recovery mechanism to drive the system into profit. For me it would need to work at level stakes. Loss recovery could be added to enhance the profit.

I don't want to poor cold water on this, just urge caution.
GL, MG
MxK
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:03 pm

Thanks WLWW and Mugsgame for your answers.

To start with the last. I understand that 250 bets isn't enough to be really sure. I'm willing to take a bit of a risk to start with loss recovery. I will do that with small bets. Maybe my (small) bank is bust after a couple of weeks. :P It's nice to try something so now and then.

It's a shame that the excellent Bet Angel software can't provide me this. I don't go for a excel solution. Maybe I should look for other Betfair software.
dmbusa
Posts: 274
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 8:33 am

Hi

Can't tell you how to do this via VBA, but if you are in the spreadsheet at the end of each race before you load up the next market you could copy the balance from cell c6 on the BET ANGEL sheet to another location, then when you fire up the next market your new balance should be there, provided Betfair have settled the market, and you can then compare the two values. I know this is very rough and ready but it may give you a starting point. ;)
Post Reply

Return to “Loss recovery systems and methods”