Eurovision 2026

Eurovision, Political betting markets, reality TV and other special markets.
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

A really poor year this year - Finland deserved favs imo, Greece is absolutely shocking and all of Eurovision twitter seem to be on him, Denmark look good also. Really tricky, anyone else have any opinions? :)
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Taff15
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surprised the Croatian entry isn't showing up stronger.... quite a strong song, but I suppose regional voting patterns come into play again.

but eh...I'm no expert in these matters, I still think Jemini did an ok job..... :cry: :cry: :lol:
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Naffman
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You could vote 20 times last year, it shows how little amount of people it takes to top the televote in each country. It only took a village full of people to vote 20 times in one of largest countries in Europe.
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Naffman
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What an awful semi-final last night but Finland firmed back into sub 2.5 again, slick performance but seem to be struggling a bit with YT views. Greece out to 7.2 (touched 8.4 last night) from 4.2! Eurovision betting twitter in disarray as everyone realised it’s wank and he just says Ferto 10 billion times. Israel the big mover, 25 into 13.5, 4 protestors chucked out, not sure they realise that actually helps their winning chance! Still can’t see them winning but should go close again as the new addition of 2 young jurors will ensure they get another low jury score.
rosecruz
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It does feel like Greece has now lost all momentum. I personally never rated it and didn't understand the flow of money taking it down to 4s. I think the market was trying to find a contender against Finland too early on. I was far more entertained with Italy in the first semi-final, and the moment they revealed the Italian flag was pure silliness that made me laugh out loud.

Having watched some of the early videos on Bulgaria, I reckon Italy and Bulgaria will be taking public votes from Greece. Between the randomness of Greece, the energy of Bulgaria and the simple honesty of Italy, I think Greece loses to both. Greece runs in the first half of the final, Italy is producer's choice and we will see what Bulgaria gets. If producers place Italy and Bulgaria after Greece, I think that would compound matters.

Possibly, we could be looking at Bulgaria to do TOP 5, even TOP 4, equaling Poli Genova from 2016. I remember that year her 4th place was a real surprise. We could be looking at a similar scenario.

I fully expect Greece to start the final at over 10s.

Same with Denmark — from early videos it just continues to look too sexualised, and it's not a contender in my book, although I think it's a cool song for TOP 7.

France is out of the conversation for the win, IMO. It just doesn't grab you enough.

Australia has dropped from 22 to 11s... can it continue to drop to become the clear contender against Finland? I reckon it could.

So it feels like a head-to-head between Finland and Australia at this stage. Looking forward to semi 2 this evening.
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Tuco
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I watched the Greek ESC National Final and I can honestly say I thought the winning Greek song was utter 'carp'.

It truly staggers me that it has traded less than 100 as imo there are many much better songs that haven't.
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Naffman
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Tuco wrote:
Thu May 14, 2026 10:06 am
I watched the Greek ESC National Final and I can honestly say I thought the winning Greek song was utter 'carp'.

It truly staggers me that it has traded less than 100 as imo there are many much better songs that haven't.
All the bettors and podcasters were sucking each other off for Greece - they got Austria totally wrong last year and are adamant they'll do much better this year. It's all group think I believe, but now they're 8.0, people will be jumping ship but if they carried on down to sub 3s they'd be going at it again.

Finland is the deserved fav, win or lose it was totally wrong by those same people to write them off.

It really is such a poor year and viewing figures are down massively, so it'll be even easier for Israel to rack up the televote. I also expect Ukraine to do well, great singer, about the war which is wasn't last year, no one is mentioning them at all to do OK.

One thing I do know is, no matter who wins - those very same experts will have made loads of money. Thankfully they've got the day job.
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