Eurovision 2014

Eurovision, Political betting markets, reality TV and other special markets.
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Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

That time of year again with the first of the semi finals tonight.

Armenia is favourite at 3.05 having traded odds on for some decent amounts.

I decided to do the listen test last night (couldn't sleep after that Liverpool collapse) without looking at the odds prior and picked out 5 songs I thought had the best chance of winning. After looking at the odds I'd actually picked the top 3 in the betting as part of my 5 but in reverse order.

So essentially what I'm trying to say is that I rated the UK as the best song. Forget your mathematical models, the listen test is where's it at! The UK is currently trading at 10 and is 3rd favourite.
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Armenia out to 4.1 after their semi final performance. Sweden now faves at 3.4.
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

what is wrong with that guys head,?
running round on a feckin hamster wheel.
couldent believe my eyes,
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Having been matched at a high of 890, Netherlands are now into 24 to win!

Image
Will Sharpe
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Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:02 am
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Consty1 wrote:Having been matched at a high of 890, Netherlands are now into 24 to win!
A good lay opportunity then?
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Netherlands in to 18 now, one hell of a gamble going on.

UK getting support as well which at 8.6 seems terrible value given how political these things are.

EDIT: Netherlands now at 11.
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Netherlands now 6.0 and 3rd faves.
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BJGardner
Posts: 312
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:09 am

UK drawn 26 of 26, only 2 of last 15 winners have come from first half of the show.
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jimrobo
Posts: 1289
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:49 pm

Anyone know when sweden is? I am not convinced by their song. Tempted to straight lay them! #Crazyidea
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Euler
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BJGardner wrote:UK drawn 26 of 26, only 2 of last 15 winners have come from first half of the show.
Interesting insight
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BJGardner
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http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=r ... ng_tonight

The voting order has been determined by the results from last night's Jury Final. An algorithm has been created to try and make the voting as exciting as possible.

The order is as follows: (Spokesperson in brackets)

Albania - (Andri Xhahu)
Montenegro - (Marija Markovic)
Romania - (Paula Seling)
Austria - (Kati Bellowitsch)
Ukraine - (Aleksey Matius)
Belarus - (Dmitry Koldun)
Belgium - (Peter Van de Veire)
Azerbaijan - (Safura Alizadeh)
Malta - (Keith Demicoli)
San Marino - (Monica Fabbri)
France - (Amaury Vassili)
United Kingdom - (Scott Mills)
Turkey - (Ömer Önder)
Greece - Adriana Magania)
Bosnia & Herzegovina - (Elvir Lakovic Laka)
Moldova - (Olivia Fortuna)
Bulgaria - (Anna Angelova)
Switzerland - (Sara Hildebrand)
Slovenia - (Lorella Flego)
Cyprus - (Loucas Hamatsos)
Croatia - (Nevena Rendeli)
Slovakia - (Mária Pietrová)
FYR Macedonia - (Kristina Talevska)
Netherlands - (Vivienne van den Assem)
Portugal - (Joana Teles)
Iceland - (Matthias Matthiasson)
Sweden - (Sarah Dawn Finer)
Norway - (Nadia Hasnaoui)
Lithuania - (Ignas Krupavičius)
Estonia - (Getter Jaani)
Denmark - (Louise Wolff)
Ireland - (Grainne Seoige)
Latvia - (Valters Fridenbergs)
Spain - (Elena S Sánchez)
Finland - (Mr Lordi)
Georgia - (Sopho Toroshelidze)
Italy - (Ivan Bacchi)
Serbia - (Maja Nikolić)
Germany - (Anke Engelke)
Russia - (Oxana Fedorova)
Hungary - (Éva Novodomszky)
Israel - (Ofer Nachshon)
Can any mathemetician out there explain what kind of algorithm could make the voting more exciting? :shock:

EDIT> Sorry disregard above, on closer inspection it was published in 2012 :oops:
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jimrobo
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:49 pm

I was having a clean up earlier after the gym and had the eurovision album on to get in the euro mood. As I turned the hoover off I realised I had been power vacuuming to conchita.....never mind your algorithms its definitely catchy!
Consty1
Posts: 328
Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:41 pm

Yep bearded lady or Netherlands for me now I've heard the songs a few times.
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Euler
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
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Quite a nice set up from a trading perspective this year. I can't trade it as I am on a night our this evening. But I think it could be pretty interesting.
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