The Open Golf Championship 2025

[gstar1975]

Didnt hit 2.0s but was tempted to add to my position at 2.50 but hesitated. Now 2.80 dropping a couple of shots.

[gstar1975]

Strokes gained off the tee leaderboard after Round 2.

Screenshot 2025-07-18 at 20-23-45 ShotView Statistics The Open.png

Score & Betfair prices

Westwood -3, 340
Kanaya +1, 1000
Macintyre -5, 28
Mcnealy +1, 1000
Aberg -2, 150
Gotterup -5, 65
Dechambeau +1, 660
Harman -8, 15.5
Reitan -2, 750
Canter +6, 1000 missed the cut
Schmid +1, 1000
Fitzpatrick -9, 7.20
Garcia +1, 1000

Which ones would you say are value to back? ChatGPT evaluation:

Value Bets after round 2.jpg

[Euler]

That's some round from Scottie, a 64

[Crazyskier]

That's some round from Scottie, a 64

His irons were magnificent - almost every one hole high, even from the path! Can't help feeling sorry for Fitzpatrick who would have been the only other English R2 Open leader after Faldo.

Should be a fab weekend.

CS

[Dublin_Flyer]

2 shot penalty for Lowry seems a bit harsh looking at the replay, movement was absolute minimal but you'd think he flicked it up and booted it onto the fairway!

[callum1622]

Are people laying Scottie now with 2 days to play and him already being odds on?

[TupleVision]

Are people laying Scottie now with 2 days to play and him already being odds on?

I tend to do lay to backs at what my model says should be fair odds if a player is showing -ev. Fitzpatrick came up earlier at 5.2 I think, backed back at 6.6. Scheffler is now showing as a lay for me at 1.77, order in for something in the region of 2.10 for around 11% edge.

[gstar1975]

That's some round from Scottie, a 64

The first ever Gold tournament I trade and he does that lol.

[gstar1975]

What's your assessment Peter?

[Euler]

I'll post up some thoughts in a bit. But here is some data for you: -

[gstar1975]

I'll post up some thoughts in a bit. But here is some data for you: -

Thanks Peter. Where did you get/work out the "Tee to Green" stats? I could only find Off the Tee?

[TupleVision]

I'll post up some thoughts in a bit. But here is some data for you: -

Thanks Peter. Where did you get/work out the "Tee to Green" stats? I could only find Off the Tee?

https://datagolf.com/live-tournament-stats

[gstar1975]

I'll post up some thoughts in a bit. But here is some data for you: -

Thanks Peter. Where did you get/work out the "Tee to Green" stats? I could only find Off the Tee?

https://datagolf.com/live-tournament-stats

How would you analyse these stats. Should I be looking at Sheffler -10 and think ok I need to concentrate on players with either a total shots gained of over 5 (2 rounds to go 2 x 5 = 10 strokes gained) or Tee to Green SG of over 5 so they can catch Sheffler or if Sheffler drops a few that would also help. Based on the recent video Peter did about Strokes gained Sheffler should be a lay at this point as his "Off the Tee" SG is -0.34. Also Shefflers total SG on the "The Open" website is showing +12.44 vs The Data Golf website is showing +7.41 which is confusing.

[TupleVision]

How would you analyse these stats. Should I be looking at Sheffler -10 and think ok I need to concentrate on players with either a total shots gained of over 5 (2 rounds to go 2 x 5 = 10 strokes gained) or Tee to Green SG of over 5 so they can catch Sheffler or if Sheffler drops a few that would also help. Based on the recent video Peter did about Strokes gained Sheffler should be a lay at this point as his "Off the Tee" SG is -0.34. Also Shefflers total SG on the "The Open" website is showing +12.44 vs The Data Golf website is showing +7.41 which is confusing.

* Start with a home‑grown model (image of mine attached) that spits out a fair price for each player (it should blend long‑term form + live SG + position on the board). From that you can see who’s a touch short or big versus the exchange.

* On course you should lean on the SG splits: if the leader’s edge is mostly putting while his Tee‑to‑Green is flat or negative, that fair price bumps up and you can be happy to lay a point or two under it. Sometimes Peter posts hardest holes playing on the course, you can easily wait for these and see how your selection copes and trade in/out accordingly.


Try to update the model a few times during the round when there’s a big swing (e.g., two birdies/bogeys), otherwise let it run. The exact SG totals differ site‑to‑site, so I use them directionally rather than worrying about the decimal.

[Euler]

Y, I can't disagree with that.

Scottie has putted well, but that's the hardest thing to carry forward to the next round. But the weather is benign at the moment. So the greens will feel the same.

The players with the early tee times should give us a clue as to how the course is playing and how that will affect the later players.

He has a great reacord when in the lead, but if there is a bit of rain or some wind, that could change pretty quickly. It's only a one shot lead.