US Open 2019

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Archangel
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Gary Woodland is a new name to me!
Emmson
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I have blundered badly in the golf, I don't think Gary Woodland wins but what if I'm wrong?

I also do not cherry pick what screenshots I display and I certainly do not falsify.
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Emmson
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My choice will be a full red out or a partial red out. Got plenty of time to consider my move. At least the cricket is going well.
henbet22
Posts: 216
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He has been playing the front 9 well so far this week so you could be in for some more pain initially..... but you would think he could shoot 70 in the end which wouldn't be enough imo...…. depends what swing he turns up with...….
Emmson
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Indeed Henbet I have decided I don't need many hours consideration, I have made a full red out. It's the right thing to do even though I still think Woodland blows up.
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henbet22
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Decisive..... no regrets if he plays like a drain!!! :)
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Euler
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Retweeted this earlier - Making a move at Pebble? Make it early. Through three rounds, the field is a combined 39-under-par on holes 1-7. They are a ridiculous 660-over-par on holes 8 through 18.
Emmson
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I heard breeze might be up, that would be great.
Emmson
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The contenders other the last pairing make no in roads early and Rose drives into the thick rough off the 1st after Woodland bombs it down the centre of the fairway precipitating a plunge on him..

That is why I had to red out.

I am eager to cut that red down below £100 that is my goal for this evening. Had my 90 minute nap & looking forward.

Normally a pacific time zone would be no problem but its a right nuisance this year with having to be up early for cricket.
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Archangel
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So your 8 hours behind ?
Thats an early start for the cricket !
Emmson
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Archangel wrote:
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:05 pm
So your 8 hours behind ?
Thats an early start for the cricket !
No not me the golfers. Finishes after 3.00am and was 4.00am on friday and I can't just fall asleep as soon as my trading session ends, I need to wind down and Its daylight.
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Euler
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Brooks Koepka shot in the 60s all four rounds but finished second. Koepka is the first player in U.S. Open history to shoot in the 60s all four rounds and not win. Dating to last year, he now has five straight rounds in the 60s in the U.S. Open, most of any player in championship history.
jaffas46
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:32 am

Hi Guys,1st post here so if I have posted in the wrong place please feel free to redirect me! WRT .Euler's link to the Economist EAGLE predictor On Sunday morning EAGLE was predicting a 36% win for Woodland and Rose and only a 9% win for Koepka.The odds on BF at this time were 3 for both Woodland and Rose (reflecting the predictor) Koepka was priced at 6, so I was thinking that the value was in laying Koepka but the risk was 3x what it would have been to dutch Woodland and Rose for the same reward,So my question is would it have been better to take the value (laying Koepka) or to take much less value (dutching Woodland and Rose)
henbet22
Posts: 216
Joined: Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm

Hey jaffas. Along with value think also in terms of liability and exits. Laying Koepka at 6 would be a bit risky considering the form he is showing at the moment and before long your lay at 6 is under a lot of pressure. So try to think in terms of value entries that can withstand a bit of heat before you have to cut and run. imo laying Koepka at 6 doesn't give you that because of the liability and his form and these factors offset the value you are getting in his price.....you could back him to get a bit closer to the leaders or maybe lead or win even though on the eagle base percentage you are not getting value...because it's easier to control your liability in that spot.......hope this helps.......
jaffas46
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:32 am

Thanks for your reply Henbet. I think I understand the risk/liability part of the trade but exits? Could I not trade out when the price reached a certain level? Do you calculate what it would take for the price to get to that level and is that what you mean by withstand a bit of heat? Thanks again for your reply
Jaffa
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