Sunday Leopardstown - two races to look at

[JollyGreen]

In the Derby Trial at 16:05 I do like Midas Touch but he is now a bit too skinny for me at 2.68. Someone with fat fingers did offer 3.00 and I wish I could get that about this horse because that would be a great price. I think he is a 2.25 shot so there is still some value in the 2.68 on offer and I would not be surprised to see this horse supported into 2.50 and possibly into 2.40 closer to the start. I have noticed a lot of support for Address Unknown but I have him a few pounds inferior and he looks booked for 2nd place. I cannot see the other two getting involved but there are only 4 runners and a Mickey Mouse race (false pace) could see a Mickey Mouse result.

As usual you end up with two of your noted horses in the same race. That has happened today with the 17:35 where I have Duff and Big Robert both running! The favourite is Famous name at 1.38 and he will take some beating. However in races like this there is always the chance of a false pace and if a jockey is caught napping then you can get a strange result.

Duff has the best chance of upsetting the odds and this could be the one for the BTL players. This horse has a great record in small fields and has won 6/7 in races like the one today and he only lost the other by a short head! He loves to dominate the field and front run and so a field of 5 is right up his street. I mentioned before about jockeys going to sleep and if they allow this horse a soft lead today then he may take some pegging back. I am sure he will trade much shorter in running so perhaps a small back close to the off with a view to grabbing some profit.

Big Robert is not quite up to the standard of Duff and Famous Name but he's not far off and quite frankly his price of 30 is an insult to him. He didn't get 10f last time and so the cut back to 8f today should suit. Now obviously he is an outsider but he has a live chance and he really should be about 10 in my book. He is knocking on the door of Group 3 and he deserves his place in the line up.

[JollyGreen]

Well I will never understand why people will bet a horse so heavily that it ends up being favourite when there is absolutely no form on offer to justify that support. On all known form Address Unknown could not beat Midas Touch. I know I mentioned false pace causing a strange result but in races where you think that might happen you should be looking for big prices.

I was laughing my head off when I saw the way the price was getting bigger and bigger on Midas Touch I even backed the forecast on Betfair and after 4f-5f I felt tempted to back Midas Touch when it reached 4.00!! I wonder what some people are looking at when they offer money in these races. The other O'Brien horse had gone too quick and he was a sitting duck. The jockey on Address Unknown (Pat Smullen) then cut his horses throat when he also went hard with the front runner. Now the winner doesn't look a Derby contender but he was always going to win unless his pilot hit the eject button!

The opposite happened in the 5:35 race where the same jockey (Pat Smullen)didn't allow Duff to get a soft lead. If you watched that race you could see that Duff hated it because he wasn't allowed to lead. He had his head up and was cocking his jaw and that was the end of him. It also goes to show that if he had been allowed a soft lead he may actually have won because the second placed horse only lost a short head and he is 17lbs inferior to the winner!

Keep an eye on Duff because he will be back to winning ways soon!