Think different - Green up 1.1

[jimibt]

If ever I had any doubt about the sanity of this rule override, this weekend has proved it to be invaluable.

I have a ruleset that scrapes the barrel (so to speak) and places a hefty back bet in the sub 2.00 odds territory (in the majority of cases, sub 1.35 tbh). 9/10, this works great, but on the 1/10 occassion, it can wreck havoc with profitability as a trade can be matched at 1.18, only to then hit 1.06/7 and drift back out big time. No surprises there for the many experienced. However, until recently, this has always caused me issues with my green/red out strategy. However, today I had a minor epiphany and set up a small rule that looked at my p&l and greened up if it were on a pretty low £x (i.e. less than my *normal* greenup kick point), but was trading below 1.12 odds. lo and behold, reds of £xxx have been avoided to be replaced by greens of small but friendly single figure gains.

the point is, i as a relative noob have always been greening and redding to conventional targets and have ignored the fact that a rescue option is always available if you are willing to think around the problem and be decisive. this strategic option affected no less than 3 dodgy trades today.

anyway, that was today, tmro is another day

[Crazyskier]

If ever I had any doubt about the sanity of this rule override, this weekend has proved it to be invaluable.

I have a ruleset that scrapes the barrel (so to speak) and places a hefty back bet in the sub 2.00 odds territory (in the majority of cases, sub 1.35 tbh). 9/10, this works great, but on the 1/10 occassion, it can wreck havoc with profitability as a trade can be matched at 1.18, only to then hit 1.06/7 and drift back out big time. No surprises there for the many experienced. However, until recently, this has always caused me issues with my green/red out strategy. However, today I had a minor epiphany and set up a small rule that looked at my p&l and greened up if it were on a pretty low £x (i.e. less than my *normal* greenup kick point), but was trading below 1.12 odds. lo and behold, reds of £xxx have been avoided to be replaced by greens of small but friendly single figure gains.

the point is, i as a relative noob have always been greening and redding to conventional targets and have ignored the fact that a rescue option is always available if you are willing to think around the problem and be decisive. this strategic option affected no less than 3 dodgy trades today.

anyway, that was today, tmro is another day

Attempting to green up in play when a horse trades below 1.12 is almost impossible to get matched in any race under 2 miles+ unless it then lengthens (meaning it's no longer such a nailed-on winner) in my (admittedly limited) experience.

I do have a consistent automation strategy that enters the market for precisely one second when the last LTP on any horse was below evens - -but it's nowhere near as low as 1.12 and it isn't backing

Even using trigger points between 1.4 and 1.5 LTP, the amount of times my bet enters the market TOO LATE to be matched is around 50%, with sprints below 1.2m rarely matched unless the favourite is drifting.

I'm interested to hear about what % you're getting matched, or is it longer races with more time before the likely winner crosses the winning post?

[PeterLe]

CS
One interesting thing you do is to go into your betfair account and check the betting history of 'cancelled' bets ie bets that your automation fired in for a 1 sec fill/kill that were not matched.
You can then compare the horse name with the race results.
What this tells you is where automation worked correctly ie you placed a lay bet at low odds but it wasn't matched, but at least you know you are on the right track.
I checked my results last night using a similar system. I returned around 9 times my stake money, whereas if I had been matched on every bet it would have been closer to a 50 multiple.
It's just part and parcel of a typical day. In my opinion you are not just trading against fellow traders, I'm sure betfair square things in play, you can't compete with that. All you can do is fire in plenty of orders and some WILL get matched
Regards
Peter