Time between 2 goals - Statistics

[rpadrela]

Hi,

Been doing some work on soccer statistics lately and found out something I thought was very interesting, at least it's something that I wasn't aware of.

What's the probability of the time interval between 2 goals being a maximum of 5 minutes ? See the following image.



Do you guys think the markets are aware of this ?

This chart is based on data from the past 2 Premier Leagues.

Cheers

[Bet Angel]

Unless I am reading those stats and the graph incorrectly I'd say it was considerably wrong? By a coincidence the last thing I did in the last league season was work on goal scoring times for the 1st and 2nd goal.

[rpadrela]

I'll try to explain better what the chart is supposed to say.

So, basically what the chart is saying is that after one goal the probability of having another goal in the next:

1-5 minutes is 19.25%
6-10 minutes is 16.42%
etc...

This is in case there's 100% probability there will be another goal. So, if after a goal is scored you know there's a 90% probability there will be another goal then the probability of it happening in the space of 5 minutes is 0.1925 * 0.90 = 17.33%.

Hopefully this makes sense.

Cheers

[rpadrela]

Regarding your research on the time of the 1st and 2nd goals, maybe this will help:

1st goal time interval probability:


2nd goal time interval probability:


Remember, this data is from the last 2 Premier Leagues.

Cheers

[Bet Angel]

Towards the end of last season I managed to come up with a forumula that predicts the average time of the first and second goal in every match. When I backdated the forumula it was only seconds out on average, but there is a huge standard deviation on goal times.

But on average, the time between first and second goal was around 25 minutes. So I can't see where you are getting this stat that a goal is likely in the next five minutes after a goal?

[rpadrela]

Hi Peter,

The algorithm that produces that chart is very simple, for any interval between 2 goals ( not necessarily the 1st and 2nd goals ) it calculates the time between them and adds its contribution to the correct time interval.

Today when I get home I'll check the algorithm again to see if there's any flaw in there but I doubt it because it's too simple.

Cheers

[rpadrela]

Hi Peter,

I don't think the algorithm is flawed, it looks like it's doing exactly what it's supposed to do.

Just to make sure you understood the chart, for example, the 16.42% ( [6,10] ) probability means that if there's a probability of 100% to be another goal in the match, then that's the probability ( 16.42% ) that the goal will happen in the next 6th-10th minute after a goal is scored.

Cheers

[rpadrela]

What about the other statistics ? ( time for 1st and 2nd goals ) Do they match the results from your research ?

[Bet Angel]

Just to make sure you understood the chart, for example, the 16.42% ( [6,10] ) probability means that if there's a probability of 100% to be another goal in the match, then that's the probability ( 16.42% ) that the goal will happen in the next 6th-10th minute after a goal is scored.
Cheers

So regardless of the score the next goal is likely to happen in the next 6-10 minutes? Or a goal in this match is 16.42% chance between 6-10 minutes.

[rpadrela]

Or a goal in this match is 16.42% chance between 6-10 minutes.

If there's a 100% probability to be another goal in the match, then yes, there's a 16.42% probability for it to happen in the next 6-10 minutes after a goal.

[rpadrela]

This is a general view, next thing I'm going to do is to separate matches by categories based on their initial odds, maybe I'll find something interesting.

[Bet Angel]

I think I get what you are saying now thanks. You are saying if there is two or more goals in a match and the score is 1-0 then the chance of a goal in the next X minutes is X.

[rpadrela]

I think I get what you are saying now thanks. You are saying if there is two or more goals in a match and the score is 1-0 then the chance of a goal in the next X minutes is X.

X minutes immediately after the goal 1-0, yes.

What about the other statistics ( 1st and 2nd goal times ) ? The charts that I posted match the results from your research ?

Cheers

[Bet Angel]

If you take an average match I would expect the first goal to arrive on average around 32mins and the second around 57mins.

Of course this various from match to match but this is the average.

[CaerMyrddin]

But with huge standard deviation...