Today's Horse Racing

[SeaHorseRacing]

Trading today paid off. I waited allday. Been sat here for the last 2 hours placing just one trade and it came.

2.7 into 1.78 in 5 minutes. Yes!!!

Sorry I am aloud to get excited with that one!!

ice_screenshot_20170319-171552.png

[dragontrades]

Trading today paid off. I waited allday. Been sat here for the last 2 hours placing just one trade and it came.

2.7 into 1.78 in 5 minutes. Yes!!!

Sorry I am aloud to get excited with that one!!ice_screenshot_20170319-171552.png

Well done!

I backed it when I opened the market at 2.62 cause it looked like it had drifted too far but got out for a loss when it drifted a bit more. I seem to always be too cautious on swings as I'm not used to having positions open for very long and don't like sitting on a bad position. When did you get on it? Was it when the big chunks of money came or did you anticipate it before that?

I really need to learn how to read these kinds of swings. The only swings I get any success with is when something reverses after an exaggerated move.

What advice have you got for learning the swings in the market? This seems to be where the big money can be made on the everyday races, presumably how the bigger traders like Eluer are making most of their money.

I'm still basically scalping most of the time with the occasional small move for a few ticks. I'm happy with my result today considering the main meeting was off and the markets weren't the best today.

[SeaHorseRacing]

I have been in a similar position. I find it easier to pick a position and stick with it.

If your looking for a mini move then what you did was right but if you felt the price was really going to move allow that position to make its move.

I got in way before the chucks of money at about 2.6 something and I was prepared for a 7/8 tick loss.

Not many markets in a day I allow that but when you see these opportunities just let them happen. I know losses are slightly bigger and can take 3/4 races profits especially a day of scalping can get ruined on these markets but they are worth it.

Some days these trades don't come up.
If it's a mini move take small losses, if your expecting a big move allow for a slightly bigger loss because of the noise.

This is what works for me.
That was the only market from the day I traded that way. Everything else I was extremely defensive.

[ShaunWhite]

I backed it when I opened the market at 2.62 cause it looked like it had drifted too far.

'Looked like'? Was that based on any evidence or just on your idea of what odds that horse should have been?

Also, was that 2.62 on the way up? If so it was still on full drift mode then and I'd have waited for it to show signs of a reversal.
If it was 2.62 on the first dip down, I'd have waited to see if that first mini spike back up, broke the previous high before I stopped out.

Actually that graph is a clasic textbook example, each peak on the way up was higher than the last, and each peak on the way down was lower than the previous one.

In fact it's so textbook it looks like this..

FX_MLine_3r.GIF

.....and from an article that starts on this page -> http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... lysis3.asp....
-----------------------------------------------------
BREAKING DOWN 'Reversal'
An uptrend, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows.
-----------------------------------------------------

But it's always SO much easier after the event than in the heat of battle. As SHR said, I think it's just that your stop was a bit tight for a fairly noisy market, you must still be in Cheltenham mode.

(strangly enough I was watching this today -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_XG61V1UXk)

[ShaunWhite]

SHR That graph really is one to frame.... the volume increased suddenly to add even more evidence that the downturn was for real.

[Bluesky]

Interesting post Shaun thanks for putting it up, I agree with you TA is always easy in hindsight. Its not quite so straight forward when dealing with the hard right edge though is it.

[SeaHorseRacing]

I backed it when I opened the market at 2.62 cause it looked like it had drifted too far.

'Looked like'? Was that based on any evidence or just on your idea of what odds that horse should have been?

Also, was that 2.62 on the way up? If so it was still on full drift mode then and I'd have waited for it to show signs of a reversal.
If it was 2.62 on the first dip down, I'd have waited to see if that first mini spike back up, broke the previous high before I stopped out.

Actually that graph is a clasic textbook example, each peak on the way up was higher than the last, and each peak on the way down was lower than the previous one.

In fact it's so textbook it looks like this..
FX_MLine_3r.GIF


.....and from an article that starts on this page -> http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... lysis3.asp....
-----------------------------------------------------
BREAKING DOWN 'Reversal'
An uptrend, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing to a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downtrend, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows, reverses into an uptrend by changing to a series of higher highs and higher lows.
-----------------------------------------------------

But it's always SO much easier after the event than in the heat of battle. As SHR said, I think it's just that your stop was a bit tight for a fairly noisy market, you must still be in Cheltenham mode.

(strangly enough I was watching this today -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_XG61V1UXk)

The second, third and fourth runner was drifting.

[Naffman]

Second favrouite 11 mins out and no money whatsoever

[SeaHorseRacing]

This is going to be a challenge today.

[Naffman]

A lot worse than I'd thought it would be today and my expectations were pretty low!

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting post Shaun thanks for putting it up, I agree with you TA is always easy in hindsight. Its not quite so straight forward when dealing with the hard right edge though is it.

So true. You can always find a pattern to fit after the event, but knowing what pattern it's going to be beforehand is like reading tea leaves.
It's like a Kobayashi Maru test. (that's one for the nerds out there)

[SeaHorseRacing]

2.50 looks intersting waiting to pounce on the reversal!

[SeaHorseRacing]

3.10 Southwell. Bobo Mac

Hmm this looks a little nuts!!!

ice_screenshot_20170320-150008.png

[SeaHorseRacing]

Bookies are not adjusting their book on Wishfull DREAMING 3.50 Taunton.
There still 7/4.

[dragontrades]

Very consistent today. I never used to like Monday's but over the past couple of months I have found a way of being more defensive and it seems to be paying off.
Only made one real mistake where I was scalping a runner between 20-22 and a spike came in and it went up into the 30s that cotst me about £17 but I had a profit on another runner which I was trading at the same time and didn't react to the bad trade fast enough.
I think I need to buy a new monitor because I can only see 5 ladders at a time. Any advice on what screen to get or should I use 2 normal sized screens and have ladders on both?