If we start at a basic level >
Man UTD last 14 home games in the Premier League when 0-1 HT and they won 0/14 < not encouraging if you backed UTD at HT but does not create a comprehensive picture as we need to understand the effect of the time of the opening goal
1-1 and
E0 1617 2017-01-15 Man United Liverpool 0-1 1-1
E0 1516 2015-12-19 Man United Norwich 0-1 1-2
E0 1415 2014-08-16 Man United Swansea 0-1 1-2
E0 1314 2014-05-03 Man United Sunderland 0-1 0-1
E0 1314 2014-03-25 Man United Man City 0-1 0-3
E0 1314 2014-03-16 Man United Liverpool 0-1 0-3
E0 1314 2014-02-09 Man United Fulham 0-1 2-2
E0 1314 2014-01-01 Man United Tottenham 0-1 1-2
E0 1112 2011-12-31 Man United Blackburn 0-1 2-3
E0 1112 2011-10-23 Man United Man City 0-1 1-6
E0 0910 2010-04-03 Man United Chelsea 0-1 1-2
E0 0910 2009-12-12 Man United Aston Villa 0-1 0-1
E0 0910 2009-10-03 Man United Sunderland 0-1 2-2
Did you back Man UTD at HT @5/2 to beat Everton ? A look at game state analysis
Premier League 0-1 HT with the opening goal in the 21-30 minutes time band
last 54 <> 6-14-34 <> the home teams won 11% , 1/0.11 = 8/1 <> and you can see why UTD should not have been offered at 5/2
1-1 1-3 1-2 0-2 1-1
and
T HT T+1 FT
Bourne Watford 24 0 1 H48 2 2
Man UTD Liverpool 27 0 1 H84 1 1
WBA Hull 21 0 1 H49 3 1
Watford Palace 26 0 1 H71 1 1
Boro Liverpool 29 0 1 A60 0 3
WHU Arsenal 24 0 1 A72 1 5
Watford Stoke 29 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 24 0 1 H51 3 2
Stoke Bourne 26 0 1 0 1
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3
last 54 <> 6-14-34 <> the home teams won 11% , 1/0.11 = 8/1 <> and you can see why UTD should not have been offered at 5/2
1-1 1-3 1-2 0-2 1-1
and
T HT T+1 FT
Bourne Watford 24 0 1 H48 2 2
Man UTD Liverpool 27 0 1 H84 1 1
WBA Hull 21 0 1 H49 3 1
Watford Palace 26 0 1 H71 1 1
Boro Liverpool 29 0 1 A60 0 3
WHU Arsenal 24 0 1 A72 1 5
Watford Stoke 29 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 24 0 1 H51 3 2
Stoke Bourne 26 0 1 0 1
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3
key point < why do sites that offer " football data " not factor in the time of the opening goal >
possibly 2 key reasons >
1. they are unaware that the time of the opening goal is the most crucial factor that determines accuracy as time decays in a game of football
2. they have not worked out how to ' scrape ' the data
possibly 2 key reasons >
1. they are unaware that the time of the opening goal is the most crucial factor that determines accuracy as time decays in a game of football
2. they have not worked out how to ' scrape ' the data