When to lay and when to back - a strategy

[noitcif]

Swing trading strategy

For a start I will regret and apologize for my poor English. Pardon!

A lot of videos show you how to scalp or swing trade on Betfair. It looks easy, and the technique it self is. But when to back and when to lay ... this is surrounded with silence. To remedy I wrote this text.

To swing trade you need to know when to bye cheaply, and you need to know when to sell expensive. That is obvious - not?

You bye cheaply at the begining of a trend, and sell expensive in the end of a trend.
Is that not obvious to?

But where does a trend start, and where does it end?

A trend starts (from a sideways market) whith a new low or a new high. Bye when you see a new low or high. That IS obvious!

A trend is alive and continues as long as: A downward trend has decreasing TOPS. An upwareds trend has rising BOTTOMS.

It goes without saying that seeing a top or a bottom NOT observe the above, is a sign saying sell.

This strategy does not alwayes work. No strategy does. So be carefull, balsamer your money. A false sign to bye is often seen when a sigle peak in the volume occurs. Ignore this sign. A stable volume, preferred rising, is the best market state to use this strategy. This is often seen in the last five minutes before a race starts.

I usualy start watching a race 10 - 15 minnutes before start, and I alwayes select the horse with the larges volume, and I always get out of the trade 10-30 seconds before start.


I set Betangel setting like this:

The chart setting:
- XAxis interval: 10 seconds
- Width 50 data points (This way I can only see the latest 500 seconds or 8 minutes. It is in this interval I am looking for new high or lows)

I only use Last Traded Price showing:
- Odds line
- Quick Moving Average (MA) line (interval 10)
- Slow MA line (interval 50)
- Envelope for Slow MA

The Latter setting:
- Enhance Latter
- Back price:
- Quick MA (interval 10)
- Slow MA (interval 50)
- Weight of Money:
- Long WOM MA line (interval 21)

So in practice (for a downward trend) I look for a new low on the chart in the last 8 minutes. If this occurs, (all) of this must be met:
- no single peak in the volume (most important)
- the Long WOM MA line is below 50% (importnt)
- the Back prices Quick MA is below the Slow MA (least important)

Then I am not to nervous about backing this horse, but I set a close stop loss order. This stop loss order is moved down gradually. When the falling tops stops being falling tops, close the trade. If you exited to early, just get in again. Close the trade latest 10-30 seconds before the race starts.

In a bull marked it is just opposite.

Please give me your opinion on this strategy.

Moral regurgitation:
- If you loose money, do not blame it on me.
- If you loose more money than you can afford, stop trading.
- If you loose money and you are lying about it, seek a doctor!

[aligammack]

"Please give me your opinion on this strategy."

If you have tested your strategy on adequate races and it consistently produces results the its a good strategy.
If it loses you money then it's a bad strategy or needs some work.

Maybe you could post a screen shot of your profit or loss then I'm sure the members of the forum will give you their opinions.

Cheers

[noitcif]

What I ment by writing the words "Please give me your opinion on this strategy." was, "do you have anything to ad or change or just comment". Maybe I should have written so but ...

What my loss is is private. The same with my profits. And anyone can fake a screen shot. It can be done easily in MS Paint.

Try paper trading this strategy. I did and is now money trading it. So far it is still good.

I used this strategy some years ago on stocks. Using it on a time span of 3-4 month it was guite good, but I had to watch it daily. Reading financial new a.s.o. It can be used on any market, because it just follows masses. Act like the lemmings. Just do not fall over the clifs. This is all there is to technical analysis. All technical analysis can tell you is, where are the masses going, do the same, but get out in time ...

The strategy can obviously also be used to scalp, but I have another for that, even more simple, if you are interested.

When to back and when to lay ... this is still surrounded with silence. No answers to this anywhere in this forum.



Greetings

[aligammack]

What I ment by writing the words "Please give me your opinion on this strategy." was, "do you have anything to ad or change or just comment". Maybe I should have written so but ...

What my loss is is private. The same with my profits. And anyone can fake a screen shot. It can be done easily in MS Paint.

The reason for asking you to post your p&l had nothing to do with wanting to know how much money you are making or losing. It is more to do with knowing HOW your strategy is making or losing money.

For example
Are you showing consistent profit each race?
Do make frequent small loses then a big win?
Are your profits inconsistent?

With this information it is easier for us to add, change or comment.

If you feel that your p&l is private then I respect that.

Good Luck

[SpikeyBob]

LOL, I'm more interested in how the original posters name is spelt backwards

[Irish Rover]

Well spotted SpikeyBob .

[noitcif]

My (user)name is Noitcif, Rail Noitcif.

But f... my username and get serious.

Are there any draw backs in this strategy? I havend seen any by my self until now.