Dobbing strike rate mystery

[ANGELS15]

Hi all I thought I'd share a recent experience with you and was curious as to whether others had experienced similar. When I first looked into Bet Angel six months ago I saw various videos on youtube which gave an insight into trading and building automation. I then realised It was possible for an ordinary punter like myself to discover a new dimension to using the exchanges. I then learned about dobbing and saw how it was possible to create automation to do this.

I had heard in the distant past of people offsetting their bets on the exchange but hadn't fully grasped the concept of how they did it so thought no more about it until I discovered Bet Angel.

I realised that trading was really the way to go having in the past devised many betting strategies which did not yield long term profits.

In March I started dobbing as I thought it could be something I could be putting my experience to use whilst learning to trade as many new people have done by watching the videos and reading what the experienced traders were advising.

I was finding anything from 3 to 8 horses a day to dob and I very quickly established a strike rate of 60+ %. I was using £6 stakes for the 1st 6 weeks increased it to £8 stakes around the end of April and then £12 in May. The strike rate of 60+ % was still consistent . Typically I might get 2 out 5 one day but the next day it could be 7 out of 9 or 4 out of 5. By July I felt confident enough to increase my stakes to £24 and I did this throughout August as well still maintaining a strike rate of 62%. I figured with these stakes I could make around £600 - £700 a month just on dobbing alone. By the end of August I had dobbed around 750 horses

Then literally from the 1st of September boom! my strike rate throughout the whole of this month has been about 35% I couldntt understand what happened and how having drawn up what I felt was a useful set of rules to pick the selections they performed so poorly. I may as well ask a todler to pick my selections.

I really stupidly thought I was on to a good system at last. My experience in the past with systems is that even after researching them and testing them the moment you go live with them in the real world either the number of selections that meet the criteria seem to dry up or the few that you actually find run like crap.

I realise now that some systems can be an illusion however dobbing is not new it must have been around as long as exchange markets have been around and isn't likely to dissappear anytime soon.

I wonder what other traders think and whether they experienced something similar and if so how they managed to bounce back from it.

[marksmeets302]

It's a wonderful example of reversion to the mean

We've all been there. Something seems to work, and once you increase the stakes the system doesn't seem to be better than random. Now it's up to you to find out why and come up with something better. There's no free lunch here, unfortunately.

[ANGELS15]

Thanks very true I seem to have duplicated my post but if you look at the other one there's an interesting point made by Dallas about seasonality.