Glad to hear somebody's enjoyed today. I got more out of the Australian markets this morning than Sandown in the afternoon.
Today's Horse Racing
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I have a dutch for tomorrow. Can not split the pair. Think they are both laid out to win. May even play the reverse forecast but for the traders, can see money coming on either. 1.00 Sufi 10/1 & Top Beak 8/1. Preference if had to be pushed would be Sufi. Cant see anything else in the race good enough to win.
So here's a question... with a market like Betfair, does it matter who is good enough to win... should you even care?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pmI have a dutch for tomorrow. Can not split the pair. Think they are both laid out to win. May even play the reverse forecast but for the traders, can see money coming on either. 1.00 Sufi 10/1 & Top Beak 8/1. Preference if had to be pushed would be Sufi. Cant see anything else in the race good enough to win.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Of course it matters. A market whether it is betfair or the bookies is priced on a variety of factors which pretty much fall down to opinion. I only ever upload or nominated horses that I believe are value. There are many tips and horses that I think will win most days and sometimes do..but i will only post something that say is priced 10% chance to win but my view is has say 40% chance to win. Its the same with trading, the only possible way to be profitable is to find value. Whether that is placing a trade or a bet.ajdal wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:27 pmSo here's a question... with a market like Betfair, does it matter who is good enough to win... should you even care?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pmI have a dutch for tomorrow. Can not split the pair. Think they are both laid out to win. May even play the reverse forecast but for the traders, can see money coming on either. 1.00 Sufi 10/1 & Top Beak 8/1. Preference if had to be pushed would be Sufi. Cant see anything else in the race good enough to win.
In my betting days, which isn't long ago, it was quite rare if ever, that I'd see a horse priced at 9/1 that in my opinion had a true 6/4 chance.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:41 pmOf course it matters. A market whether it is betfair or the bookies is priced on a variety of factors which pretty much fall down to opinion. I only ever upload or nominated horses that I believe are value. There are many tips and horses that I think will win most days and sometimes do..but i will only post something that say is priced 10% chance to win but my view is has say 40% chance to win. Its the same with trading, the only possible way to be profitable is to find value. Whether that is placing a trade or a bet.ajdal wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:27 pmSo here's a question... with a market like Betfair, does it matter who is good enough to win... should you even care?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pmI have a dutch for tomorrow. Can not split the pair. Think they are both laid out to win. May even play the reverse forecast but for the traders, can see money coming on either. 1.00 Sufi 10/1 & Top Beak 8/1. Preference if had to be pushed would be Sufi. Cant see anything else in the race good enough to win.
Top Beak i s definitiely coming back to form and ran a decent race under a very "quiet" ride by Rob Havlin, making up a lot of ground inside the last furlong having been held up..If he is back to form he is an exeptionally well handicapped horse being some 19lb lover than his highest mark.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:41 pmOf course it matters. A market whether it is betfair or the bookies is priced on a variety of factors which pretty much fall down to opinion. I only ever upload or nominated horses that I believe are value. There are many tips and horses that I think will win most days and sometimes do..but i will only post something that say is priced 10% chance to win but my view is has say 40% chance to win. Its the same with trading, the only possible way to be profitable is to find value. Whether that is placing a trade or a bet.ajdal wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:27 pmSo here's a question... with a market like Betfair, does it matter who is good enough to win... should you even care?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:26 pmI have a dutch for tomorrow. Can not split the pair. Think they are both laid out to win. May even play the reverse forecast but for the traders, can see money coming on either. 1.00 Sufi 10/1 & Top Beak 8/1. Preference if had to be pushed would be Sufi. Cant see anything else in the race good enough to win.
If he sticks to this class wont go off at todays odds,and should win a race at some point.
Value is the most important factor in being profitable if you are backing horses,and is the deciding factor in whether I back a horse or not,irrespecive of how much of a chance of winning it has.
As to "does it matter who is good enough to win... should you even care"...Which I presume was asked from a trading perspective?
It should matter,and can give you an edge but I suspect a lot of people on here who trade the horse racing markets arent students of form,so it wont matter to them,as they are just following the market.You dont have to know/understand form etc to be profitable trading horses(pre race),so in that respect it doesnt matter.
In Play trading you do need to know your horse,style of running etc in my opinion
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I didnt trade the 1.45 however I did notice something when I got back to my desk with a cuppa.
