Secrecy must surely have an outstanding chance in this race. I dare say that everyone will be raving about Awzaan as he was fancied for the 2000 Guineas but failed to show anything in the race. There was also talk that Awzaan had problems but as usual I will never know if there was any truth in those rumours.
Anyway Secrecy looked smart when he seemed to find a turbo charger to win smartly at Newmarket last year. Admittedly that was a handicap but he pulverised the opposition and seemed a horse to follow. I am not sure what happened after that because he seemed to lose his way. I know Saeed Bin Suroor went through a flat period but perhaps the horse had a niggling injury? He was looking like the winner in Dubai but never picked up as I expected.
He then ran at Salisbury and once again he looked a likely winner but just missed out as Sea Lord took the race after a good ride from Kieren Fallon.That horse is now running in the Irish Champion Stakes and the second Poet's Voice absolutely hacked up on his next run thrashing Main Aim at Goodwood. Then Frankie deserted Secrecy at Kempton and Ted Durcan won the race at his expense!!That augurs well for Secrecy and I think he will come in for some strong support in this race.
If there is any doubt about the fitness or well being of Awzaan then Secrecy could drop down to 3.50 where his is starting to lose value. I think he is great value at around 4.00 and must have a great chance of winning this.
Haydock 2:00...don't tell anyone..but
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I notice that Awzaan is a big drifter out to >7.0 at one point with a slight revival back to 5.50 before moving out again to 7.0.
I think Secrecy will attract support later and it could be in with a great chance of winning this.
I think Secrecy will attract support later and it could be in with a great chance of winning this.
Hi J,
your analyses are fascinating, it's a talent which in spite of years of working on has never flourished for me. Instead I worked on stats. and developed a rating method. I only "do" handicaps seriously because that's where the value lies for my method, but as I had a few minutes to spare I thought I'd rate the 2 o'clock to compare notes. Perhaps understandably the fav. came top. I'd love to see Secrecy turn it over for you and I'll watch this particular race with great interest,
good luck, P
your analyses are fascinating, it's a talent which in spite of years of working on has never flourished for me. Instead I worked on stats. and developed a rating method. I only "do" handicaps seriously because that's where the value lies for my method, but as I had a few minutes to spare I thought I'd rate the 2 o'clock to compare notes. Perhaps understandably the fav. came top. I'd love to see Secrecy turn it over for you and I'll watch this particular race with great interest,
good luck, P
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi Predicton
Thank you for the kind words, they are very much appreciated.
The only problem with "ratings" that are available to the general public is that everyone is looking at the same number. It is so much better if you have the time to create your own as you do and compile them using your own personal methods. If the race was always won by the top rated horse then short term we would all be rich. However, the bookies, layers etc would then reduce the prices and so the profit would stop!
The hardest races to assess are usually those involving younger horses because you never know if they have hidden potential. I tend to leave those alone unless I can find an angle or have spotted something that leads me to believe that a horse is better than the bare form.
I tend to look longer term or at horses that offer value to me. Value is a much talked about subject but in my mind it is still a very personal and subjective thing. The problem I find with most punters is they cannot look away from the favourite and cannot take a long term view. I could give 4 consecutive losers and would be slated (I was once a tipster on an internet site ..sshhh!) and then the next one would win at 8/1 but the punters would miss it because they lost faith and moved on looking for nothing but consecutive winners.
Thank you for the kind words, they are very much appreciated.
The only problem with "ratings" that are available to the general public is that everyone is looking at the same number. It is so much better if you have the time to create your own as you do and compile them using your own personal methods. If the race was always won by the top rated horse then short term we would all be rich. However, the bookies, layers etc would then reduce the prices and so the profit would stop!
The hardest races to assess are usually those involving younger horses because you never know if they have hidden potential. I tend to leave those alone unless I can find an angle or have spotted something that leads me to believe that a horse is better than the bare form.
I tend to look longer term or at horses that offer value to me. Value is a much talked about subject but in my mind it is still a very personal and subjective thing. The problem I find with most punters is they cannot look away from the favourite and cannot take a long term view. I could give 4 consecutive losers and would be slated (I was once a tipster on an internet site ..sshhh!) and then the next one would win at 8/1 but the punters would miss it because they lost faith and moved on looking for nothing but consecutive winners.
Unlucky J, still a heck of a call.
I'm with you on the question of value, I too ran a tiny free tipping service for a while, the trouble was I had to await horses priced at 14/1+ for my value to arise and even then they only won 10% of the time so long losing runs were the norm. For all that I had half a dozen or so takers who were quite complimentary, but as you say, such people are hard to find. I gathered them by giving no illusions as to the patience requirement. These days I use the ratings to spot potential steamers.
Anyway, I hope that you can get your connection back to speed soon and look forward to seeing more of your race analysis,
cheers, P
I'm with you on the question of value, I too ran a tiny free tipping service for a while, the trouble was I had to await horses priced at 14/1+ for my value to arise and even then they only won 10% of the time so long losing runs were the norm. For all that I had half a dozen or so takers who were quite complimentary, but as you say, such people are hard to find. I gathered them by giving no illusions as to the patience requirement. These days I use the ratings to spot potential steamers.
Anyway, I hope that you can get your connection back to speed soon and look forward to seeing more of your race analysis,
cheers, P