Worcester 1:50 - Short priced fav

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Frosted Grape is going to be a very short price for this race. I think the only reason it has not moved below 2.0 is the concern about a few things.
  • 1. Has the race come too soon after the last win at Hereford?
    2. Will she down tools and sulk if she cannot front run?
    3. She seems a bit chancy at early fences and a bad mistake could see her headed and as a result she could down tools as in point 2!!
This horse almost got rid of her jockey at the first fence last time out but Tom Scudamore held on and then went on to romp home. She is now clearly well handicapped..BUT...I am not sure I would be keen to take even money about her and this is why.

She clearly has a problem with racing if she cannot lead. On more than one occasion she has downed tools and sulked because she has lost her place. She also needs constant cajoling and rarely seems to just travel on the bridle.

Today she will be running against slightly better rivals and whilst it's still a pretty poor race she may not get it all her own way and punters who have taken a short price will certainly have a few sphincter moments :shock:

I note that A P McCoy partners Another Trump on its chase debut and this horse was some 20lbs superior to these rivals over hurdles. Of course jumping fences is a different game to hurdles but if this horse takes to the bigger obstacles then prices between 18-24 are going to seem very generous.

Risk Challenge is another runner that is not without a chance but he needs to sharpen up his jumping at the finish of a race. He made a few mistakes over the closing obstacles last time out but perhaps he's fitter and stronger now and ready to tackle these fences.

Frosted Grape is the likely winner but at 2.00 I certainly couldn't back her. One thing is certain, she will be contesting the lead all the way and it is just a case of can she run the finish out of her rivals. If she gets challenged for the lead then she could go out like a shot if she makes a mistake at a fence and is headed.

Watch this race and see how it pans out!
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Well that was a tight finish and once again everyone seems aghast at the improved form of the winner :shock:


Why are they so surprised?
I note that A P McCoy partners Another Trump on its chase debut and this horse was some 20lbs superior to these rivals over hurdles. Of course jumping fences is a different game to hurdles but if this horse takes to the bigger obstacles then prices between 18-24 are going to seem very generous.
It seemed obvious to me that a horse rated 20lb superior to his rivals over hurdles would surely have a chance if he took to fences. They always seem to forget that some horses are not good at hurdles but handle fences much better. It requires a different action and clearly Another Trump is yet another horse that proves my point.

I didn't have a penny on the race - we were out for a walk and then came home for a nice Sunday roast :D
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