Dutching

[cmuddle]

Hello everyone,

Which races or meetings would be to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?

I tried this strategy yesterday and Southwell was deffinitly not good.

Always appreciate your help.

Thank you

[cmuddle]

to correct - up to the first 4 or 5 favourites depending on the odds and number of runners

[ShaunWhite]

I think you'll get the answer that it's not the type of race, but the actual horses in the race that make a difference.

...and also the shape of the market. A six runner race with them priced at 5,5,5,7,7,7 etc will be a very different proposition from one where there's a strong fav and the rest are donkeys.

[Derek27]

Blindly dutching the first 4 or 5 favourites, in any type of race, sounds to me like a very random strategy. Why not just use the old pin method?

[spreadbetting]

The odds on Betfair are generally very close to the true chances of a horse in any race so unlucky that the type of race , number of runners, course etc won't have already been accounted for in the odds.

[ANGELS15]

Not quite sure if I'm getting your question right: 'which meetings/races to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?' Are you saying you want the kind of races/meetings that will give you success if you're trying to dutch the first 4 favourites? If that is the case then you would need to be doing it in larger fields where the minimum price is at least 5/1. You would have to avoid small fields less than 8 runners where if you're trying to dutch the top 4 you're effectively buying most of the field with the lilelyhood that you'll be betting odd on. The kind of meetings with large fields tend to be at places like Doncaster, york, newmarket, newbury, ascot, windsor etc. Many Irish meetings have handicaps with over 20 runners as they have less racing and meetings tend to be fully subscribed.

Not sure how successfull a strategy it will be as when you dutch 4 runners you could on occasions be effectively getting the equivalent of an even money return.You'd need to be successful 60% of the time. Favourites as a group these days tend to win around 38% of the time.

[ANGELS15]

Having said that as you're dutching the top 4 you may be able to improve your strike rate if you're very selective.

[BetScalper]

Depends on the race type as there is a notable difference between Hcap and non Hcap races when it comes to the favourites winning or not winning.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hello everyone,

Which races or meetings would be to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?

I tried this strategy yesterday and Southwell was deffinitly not good.

Always appreciate your help.

Thank you

Not sure about dutch the first 4 favourites, (although on the AWR you could be onto something). I like the following article as a starting point.

Jonathan Burgess 20/Mar/17 (google and found it freely available) Some stats on the page to back it up.

Dutching First 3 in the market.

Dutch3.PNG

With Betangel's dutching programme, I'd go along the lines of insuring the First Favourite and setting acceptable losses for some of the remaining runners out of the First 3.

[markkirwan]

I dutch the races that the favourite stats are 40% or more (from the racing post site) but the amount of horses vary according to the odds available but I aim for 20%. I've been doing this for a while and the bets win about 80% of the time so I use a good staking plan to enhance the long winning runs but the short odds.

[Duke]

Hello everyone,

Which races or meetings would be to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?

I tried this strategy yesterday and Southwell was deffinitly not good.

Always appreciate your help.

Thank you

Hi cmuddle,

Dutching is fun but can be high risk whatever staking plan you might have in place. Although the BA Pro Dutch tool is quality.

I prefer to make a simple trade or two on the first and second favs (sometimes more if the opportunity is there). Swing trade, simple scalp, whatever is achievable pre race, but don't cash out. Take the race in play, sit back and watch - you can't lose. You can cash out at any point if your selections are not doing too well, however if one does win, your profit will be more than the worth of the original trade.

You can even set a predetermined cash out figure further down the ladder and keep before the off to improve profit on original trade and your selection would cash out if ran well wether it won or not.

I find this a lot more relaxing than dutching, however similar to watch, as after a couple of easy trades you have essentially covered the whole field and you have full control over your trades in play.

[ShaunWhite]

I'm not sure taking a random horse inplay and trading it is the best use of your profits. They are such totally different disciplines. Are you sure the inplay trading part is profitable?

You also say that you take your profit inplay, but do you do the same with your losses? If the inplay is profitable then logically you would.

However, if you do like the excitement of being financially involved in the running of the race, why not let everything go in play to the finish line? Market efficiency being what it is, that part would be break even and would long term be the same as closing everything at SP. But you'd get the thrill of the run.

I do need to remember though that people on here have different objectives, trying to pay the rent is very different to it for a bit of fun. Sometimes every penny doesn't need to count. ( blasphemy)

So Duke on reflection I think you should do what the hell you like, life's too short to be deadly serious all the time. Watching every penny in your leisure time is the guaranteed way to suck all the fun out of it. If you start worrying about the pennies you could have made you'll start to worry about the ones you lost, and that's not the idea if it's meant to be fun.

Have fun

[Duke]

I'm not sure taking a random horse inplay and trading it is the best use of your profits. They are such totally different disciplines. Are you sure the inplay trading part is profitable?

You also say that you take your profit inplay, but do you do the same with your losses? If the inplay is profitable then logically you would.

However, if you do like the excitement of being financially involved in the running of the race, why not let everything go in play to the finish line? Market efficiency being what it is, that part would be break even and would long term be the same as closing everything at SP. But you'd get the thrill of the run.

I do need to remember though that people on here have different objectives, trying to pay the rent is very different to it for a bit of fun. Sometimes every penny doesn't need to count. ( blasphemy)

So Duke on reflection I think you should do what the hell you like, life's too short to be deadly serious all the time. Watching every penny in your leisure time is the guaranteed way to suck all the fun out of it. If you start worrying about the pennies you could have made you'll start to worry about the ones you lost, and that's not the idea if it's meant to be fun.

Have fun

Hi shaun white

With respect, I think you have totally misunderstood my post. No suggestion was made to take liabilities in play.
Although it is difficult to explain trading methods using text alone. However taking successful trades in play, with fore thought and skill can be very lucrative and vastly increase profits compared to cashing out before the off.
Yes a different discipline to dutching, however, assuming one can make a successful trade before the race goes in play there is zero risk as there obviously is with dutching hence being much more enjoyable to watch via live stream or the markets via the in play trader, if one wishes to do so.

[ShaunWhite]

No suggestion was made to take liabilities in play.
However taking successful trades in play, with fore thought and skill can be very lucrative and vastly increase profits compared to cashing out before the off.

Surely the inplay part is either profitable or not, regardless of the profitability of the trading you did before the race?
They are two completely unrelated markets. One market has finished (a PP market) and you're trading the next (an IP market), it just so happens they occur back to back.

The P&L at the time the second one starts just happens to still be visible on your screen, rather than being banked in your P&L account.

I couldn't really understand why you'd suggest taking a profit forward to increasing it, but not taking a loss forward to reducing it. Neither of which I'd do personally because I don't have the skills to be profitable inplay. If you are profitable in play, why are you only trading random IP markets selected on the basis of a coin toss, ie the outcome of the unrelated PP market.

Taking a profit through to inplay is exactly the same as hedging up and then re-investing your profit as stake (granted you avoid the tiny spread)

[Duke]

No suggestion was made to take liabilities in play.
However taking successful trades in play, with fore thought and skill can be very lucrative and vastly increase profits compared to cashing out before the off.

Surely the inplay part is either profitable or not, regardless of the profitability of the trading you did before the race?
They are two completely unrelated markets. One market has finished (a PP market) and you're trading the next (an IP market), it just so happens they occur back to back.

The P&L at the time the second one starts just happens to still be visible on your screen, rather than being banked in your P&L account.

I couldn't really understand why you'd suggest taking a profit forward to increasing it, but not taking a loss forward to reducing it. Neither of which I'd do personally because I don't have the skills to be profitable inplay. If you are profitable in play, why are you only trading random IP markets selected on the basis of a coin toss, ie the outcome of the unrelated PP market.

Taking a profit through to inplay is exactly the same as hedging up and then re-investing your profit as stake (granted you avoid the tiny spread)
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