Which races or meetings would be to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?
I tried this strategy yesterday and Southwell was deffinitly not good.
Always appreciate your help.
Thank you
Dutching
-
ShaunWhite
- Posts: 6188
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I think you'll get the answer that it's not the type of race, but the actual horses in the race that make a difference.
...and also the shape of the market. A six runner race with them priced at 5,5,5,7,7,7 etc will be a very different proposition from one where there's a strong fav and the rest are donkeys.
...and also the shape of the market. A six runner race with them priced at 5,5,5,7,7,7 etc will be a very different proposition from one where there's a strong fav and the rest are donkeys.
-
spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
The odds on Betfair are generally very close to the true chances of a horse in any race so unlucky that the type of race , number of runners, course etc won't have already been accounted for in the odds.
Not quite sure if I'm getting your question right: 'which meetings/races to avoid when dutching the first 4 favourites?' Are you saying you want the kind of races/meetings that will give you success if you're trying to dutch the first 4 favourites? If that is the case then you would need to be doing it in larger fields where the minimum price is at least 5/1. You would have to avoid small fields less than 8 runners where if you're trying to dutch the top 4 you're effectively buying most of the field with the lilelyhood that you'll be betting odd on. The kind of meetings with large fields tend to be at places like Doncaster, york, newmarket, newbury, ascot, windsor etc. Many Irish meetings have handicaps with over 20 runners as they have less racing and meetings tend to be fully subscribed.
Not sure how successfull a strategy it will be as when you dutch 4 runners you could on occasions be effectively getting the equivalent of an even money return.You'd need to be successful 60% of the time. Favourites as a group these days tend to win around 38% of the time.
Not sure how successfull a strategy it will be as when you dutch 4 runners you could on occasions be effectively getting the equivalent of an even money return.You'd need to be successful 60% of the time. Favourites as a group these days tend to win around 38% of the time.
-
BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Depends on the race type as there is a notable difference between Hcap and non Hcap races when it comes to the favourites winning or not winning.
-
wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 1773
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Not sure about dutch the first 4 favourites, (although on the AWR you could be onto something). I like the following article as a starting point.
Jonathan Burgess 20/Mar/17 (google and found it freely available) Some stats on the page to back it up.
Dutching First 3 in the market.
With Betangel's dutching programme, I'd go along the lines of insuring the First Favourite and setting acceptable losses for some of the remaining runners out of the First 3.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
markkirwan
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2011 9:59 pm
I dutch the races that the favourite stats are 40% or more (from the racing post site) but the amount of horses vary according to the odds available but I aim for 20%. I've been doing this for a while and the bets win about 80% of the time so I use a good staking plan to enhance the long winning runs but the short odds.