Am I fooling myself?

[ruthlessimon]

& the reason it's important to understand the difference, is because many people might say the following:

"Hcaps are less volatile than Maidens, therefore they require a different approach"

.. which on the face of it looks true



Clearly, Hcaps are less volatile

However, what if that Hcap is priced @ 2.0?

Let's have a look at the traded range of a 2.xx fav, depending on the race type



Is a 1 tick difference enough to validate a change of strategy?

here's the % likelihood of the faves price, depending on the race type - & I'd argue this is why Hcaps are less volatile:

[ruthlessimon]

Also I'd just like to point out, there could absolutely be reasons why a 2.xx handicap does behave differently to a 2.xx Maiden - but if they ever use the argument of "volatility" - I'd personally call that misleading advice. & the next time it does get mentioned I'll get them to explain away the above post (for all our benefit)

(i.e. a defence could be, we need multiple metrics of volatility i.e. speed of price & it needs to be varied by time)