![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Shocked :shock:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Evil or Very Mad :evil:](./images/smilies/icon_evil.gif)
Unfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.mcgoo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 amThen you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early(at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early....
..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten
![]()
It seems so. I had another strange anomaly today where a lay bet was opened and fully matched in the log. The closing bet was placed but the stop loss / green up before the off didn't kick in (my unmatched bet counter didn't activate eitherspreadbetting wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:57 pmUnfortunately that's one of the 'perks' of using a trading bot on Betfair, probably one of the reasons many of us try to keep to value based bots rather than trading ones.mcgoo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:09 amThen you get caught by 2 early suspensions in one day..one pace race that starts more than 2 minutes early(at least according to the log) -good bye 2 days profit...and a dog race 30 secs early....
..make 20% of the loss back. That kind of reliability can't be beaten
![]()
Good advice.Thanks. 10 years gives me good context and hopespreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:00 amIf you have a winning bot, on the whole you'd expect it to be placing the main value bet with its entry, rather than exit so over time you should come out in front given a large enough sample.
I've been botting well over 10 years and still have to tweak my code to try and account for Betfair's quirks. Not sure what data guardian keeps but you can always look thru your betting history for void lapsed bets to try and figure out why the closer wasn't matched. Many times you'll bet into a suspended market and need to resend if possible but so much depends on what you're doing as to how best to handle any blips.
You'll never fully omit unclosed trades though so you'll need to see if the frequency and your exposure mean it's worth the risk to you.
Aint that the truthspreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:37 pm
Unfortunately that's the reality of botting and you do have to accept whenever you place a trade with a bot you're also gambling on the closing bet being matched/accepted. Always makes me smile when you see people with their theoretical winning botting strategies as there's a world of difference doing this on paper to doing it on Betfair.
With both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:55 amIt is interesting adding that metric.
I personally like the simplicity of Peter's (the other Peter) win formula ("(1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))"
No, I think it means the inefficiency wasn't cleaned up (during my trade) - & the fact my exit is occurring while it's still -ve; means I'm actually causing an inefficiency myself - because I'll be filling a guy still exploiting the edgeShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:25 amWith both entry and exit price EWRs (excess win rates) being negative, does that mean you have a net figure of - 0.83%? I guess it's that as a - ve EWR would benefit the back bet but be detrimental to the lay. Or is it the other way round?
Thanks for those suggestions Peter.Never thought of the virtual bet thing.Will check it out. I did simplify my entry greatly as I too discovered too tight=no trades. I get a lot of trades now but managing the exit has been a strong focus in smaller markets especially. It seems to work but will take your suggestions on board and do some data analysis/configuringPeterLe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pmMcGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...
(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
+1PeterLe wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:57 pmMcGoo - Just a thought but do you have virtual bets switched in the settings area?
If you do, try switching it off and then compare/contrast etc...(if you have a second account ie your own or you wifes, run one with it switched on and one with it switched off. Cross matching off generally gives the better trades in my experience (better entry, but sometimes because of the Cross matching you cant always trade out automatically at the price you want, but over time equals out)
Other things to look for; can you simplify in anyway the entry and exits triggers? (Similar to Occams razor)..In the past Ive built very complex systems that virtually never trigger! Strip out what you dont need (like a stranded plane in the desert with just enough fuel to get airborne!) The simpler systems are always the best.
You may be doing this already, but always green at the reverse price or just above it (makes a massive different over time)...
(Just an exercise, extract you bet history to excel for this bot and see what profits you would have made if they were straight backs or lays). This will give you an idea if you are entering at a value position and visa versa
Regards
Peter
No need to imagine, its happening, aim high.mcgoo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:08 amAint that the truthI remember having the rose tinted glasses re automation 9 years ago..and still now, my main issue is one of functionality + technical capability combined with process gremlins
![]()
.It blows the mind how far theory is from practice at this lot.
I often imagine there must be a dev team out there as we speak -if not already done-developing a machine learning/AI based app/rig that is going to act like the high frequency trading apps in investment banks, that I saw in the UK nearly10 years ago..but much much better ..happily making millions...and yet here I am running bots on 90 markets in one day and ending up( a little ) profitable using my clunky coding abilityIts a funny old world
![]()