Today's Football

[jimibt]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

[spreadbetting]

The 0-0 was early priced at 15 so was always goals expected in the match, when the odds remain static outside of your expected probability it either means there's a high probbility from the action on the pitch or someone's expecting a goal at that time. I've bet on far too many minor league games where the odds look well out of line and rarely come out on top so now simply avoid them as I'm neither in the know or watching the game so not worth the risk for me.

[Almanac]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

3-0 now! Strange spike in the O/U 2.5 market also.

[jimibt]

the answer to my question was *yes* (maybe) . a goal was scored within 6 minutes of my post... and in truth, based on that flat line, i had an inclin that it possibly would.

Well the goal came, I always avoid those minor league games as when something looks too good to be true it usually is.

but i agree, avoid like the plague as no real understanding if the odds and market is normal expected behaviour.

3-0 now! Strange spike in the O/U 2.5 market also.

i'm trying to get to grips with the interplay on the MO/OUxx markets and this one defied my normal understanding (and flagged itself up). thus i expected it meant some goals in the offing. alas this is stuff i'm runnning in automation test, so a fictitious £200 profit wasn't actually realised!! however, it all contibutes to a final working model.

[northbound]

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

I was letting the bets run as it was a value entry point experiment. Also, I'm a LOOONG way from paying PC. You said it yourself, finding something that works consistently is a slog

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored

Not quite. From memory, I got 1 bet matched every 4-5 games.

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

[spreadbetting]

What do you mean by a good run? Were you letting these bets run or closing out? If you were even after paying commission you'd be wise to carry it on just to reduce PC and see if any tweaking could push it to a profit.

I was letting the bets run as it was a value entry point experiment. Also, I'm a LOOONG way from paying PC. You said it yourself, finding something that works consistently is a slog

How did the teams perform that weren't matched? I'd have thought most teams will easily move 10 ticks in 10 minutes if no goals were scored

Not quite. From memory, I got 1 bet matched every 4-5 games.

Don't be too complacent about PC, the best time to prepare for it is before you pay it, not after. In my experience once you hit those winning ideas the money will just pour in, it's never some gradual increase.

I'm surprised you were only getting 1 in 4/5 bets matched, I'd have assumed the odds would drop 10 ticks in those 10 minutes. I used to have a spreadsheet calculating the odds decay overtime a bit like BA's football trader(?) in order to scalp in the more active parts of a match but can't seem to locate it and far too much hassle to recreate it.

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

[jimibt]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

[Almanac]

that Goa game was certainly a little one off. no goals until the 10th minute after HT, then a final score of 5-1... hmmm, must be the humidity!!

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

[jimibt]

Another odd one....

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

no -i didn't express that very well, i was referring to the historical graph with the two spikes (a flat scottish joke alas!!). would love to be that good mind you, would make all this tracking of odds and related markets all the easier!

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

[Almanac]

yes, i have that game runnning right now , but that one i completely understand. that's due to the two goals being scored (in fact, here's the 3rd now). however, i presume you were referring to the flatline in the 1st 15 mins

4-0 now
when you state you completely understand due to the 2 goals being scored....how so? As in it's a fixed match I presume

no -i didn't express that very well, i was referring to the historical graph with the two spikes (a flat scottish joke alas!!). would love to be that good mind you, would make all this tracking of odds and related markets all the easier!

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Thanks, will have a look.
Just feel that the market behaviour after the 2nd goal to be slightly suspicious to say the least!

[northbound]

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Not sure, the stats tell me that the dog had the best of possession and dangerous attacks so far. Wouldn’t oppose them until I see a switch in momentum.

[jimibt]

btw -a decent opportunity IP at presnt. Wisla Plock v Wisla Krakow. the dog scored first inside 15 minutes, so laying the dog in MO may pay dividends!

Not sure, the stats tell me that the dog had the best of possession and dangerous attacks so far. Wouldn’t oppose them until I see a switch in momentum.

tbh - i was basing this on a wider sta (ALTHO MORE PREMIER LEAUGE RELATED), where the dog scoring inside 20 mins results in a 80% reversal of fortunes with a 2-1 or more finish. maybe bot approoriate for this game but is the balance between ip stats and wider ranging views.

[northbound]

tbh - i was basing this on a wider sta (ALTHO MORE PREMIER LEAUGE RELATED), where the dog scoring inside 20 mins results in a 80% reversal of fortunes with a 2-1 or more finish. maybe bot approoriate for this game but is the balance between ip stats and wider ranging views.

Yep, I have to say that after my comment the favs (Wisla Plock) finished the first half well, with also 2 shots on target.

So, come 90min your angle might prove correct.