Lay Trading High Price UK Horses

[TipTopTrader]

Why not do Both?

Why limit yourself you just taking losing trades in play.

If you do it with every trade, there will never be any doubt, if it works or not.

I'm not recommending you do it, just something to ponder.You might be leaving profits on the table, ones that will help to pay for a big loss.

[aidenrn810]

I am reading your message TipTopTrader two ways.

Do both as pre-race and in-play : but that comes with high risk of losing big, so I am steering towards avoiding this and taking a quick loss after 10 seconds (max) if not matched instantly at race start.

or

Do both as high and lower price horses : but for me this is not what my strategy is about, just high price horse trade profit, plus I don't have the experience to know good value in horses or reading the market well enough on these type fo horses.

Which one did you mean?

I would like to be more selectove on which type of markets produce the best results for me rather than blindly just doing all that I see for any particular day. Handicaps, Group races, etc. as that can only help steer me towards being more choosey and focussed.

[wearthefoxhat]

I would expect any good website or tipster that specializes in laying horses to be going for shorter-priced horses, possibly favourites. The value in laying really lies when a horse is grossly overrated. It's pointless tipping a horse to lose at above 50/1, he'd just be a laughing stock. Even laying a horse at 10/1 (which is the same as backing at 10/1 on) has a very small potential profit percentage.

Good point well made.

Here's a fair example of a Lay selection that had poor ratings/data, that somehow went off as favourite!

31st Aug Wolv 2.20; Knightfall 2/1f (BSP 3.30)

Wolv220.2.GIF

What is also does is skew the market and offer value with others in the race.

Backing any of the Top 5 power rated would be value (including the winner).

Of the bigger prices to Lay in the race, Axel Jacklin (projected odds 275.00) - BSP 38.00, finished stone last.

[TipTopTrader]

I am reading your message TipTopTrader two ways.

Do both as pre-race and in-play : but that comes with high risk of losing big, so I am steering towards avoiding this and taking a quick loss after 10 seconds (max) if not matched instantly at race start.

or

Do both as high and lower price horses : but for me this is not what my strategy is about, just high price horse trade profit, plus I don't have the experience to know good value in horses or reading the market well enough on these type fo horses.

Which one did you mean?

I would like to be more selectove on which type of markets produce the best results for me rather than blindly just doing all that I see for any particular day. Handicaps, Group races, etc. as that can only help steer me towards being more choosey and focussed.

If dont want to do it all the time, then you shouldn't do it all. Is the point I'm trying to make, why only do it on the loser, when you can make a winner prerace even bigger by taking it in play for the first 10 seconds.

Unless you steer yourself away from taking any unplanned trade in play, than you will always have the risk of a big loss. Saying you will trade out after 10 second's is easy if you don't have a bad loss sitting infront of you, thats when you will wait for it come back, like you did last time.

Learning to trade the shorter price horses might be good for you, if your fear them winning than you won't use your get out in the first 10 second's rule.

Good luck with it all.

[aidenrn810]

Understand your point(s).

I say 10 seconds but really I mean instantly (<10 seconds !!!) as the market goes in-play and sometimes matches occur as bots and other people who are after prices are chasing ins/outs as well --- not well worded but hopefully you know what I mean.....

You are right though I need to consider whether to be more strcit and have now in-play.

As well as looking at a separate and different strategy of lower price (& value) horses in a race : but it still comes back to my lack of horsing knowledge or what to see as value and reading the market movements ----- which is yes the absolute art of trading which I don't have [YET]

I'll see where today gets me. No in-play then to see what that does......

[spreadbetting]

Looking at your twitter feed I see you got stung on the 10th for £450 considering you're making around £2 a race surely that loss should be enough to persuade you not to let things go inrunning?

All credit to you for not chasing back those losses with higher stakes though, so you've obviously got the discipline side of things covered. Not sure your golf system of laying the 100+ outsiders is wise either as golf regularly throws up large price winners as the fields are so large and it can be a bit of a lottery.

[TipTopTrader]

As long as you understand all the biggest and most profitable prerace traders don't have knowledge of the horses, just the markets and how they trade.They don't know or care if the horse is going to win or lose.

[Derek27]

Perhaps a bit more detailed research is required rather than off the cuff, lay this at 50, lay that at 100, ideas?

[aidenrn810]

@spreadbetting --- the golf is more calculated and if you read the short tweet fully it is not based on randomness. Certainly Marc Leishman & Cameron Smith do not fall in to 100+ pot lucks, but whilst I am putting up that labaility on these 2 then I may as well capitalise and talk also small amounts of outsiders that are just out of form, journeymen and never will win.......

[aidenrn810]

*(correction) - stupidly said never will win ::: highly highly unlikely to win.

[spreadbetting]

Fair enough your pnl at the end of month will tell you if you're on the right track but it's a risky game putting effort into choosing some outsiders by 'form' then lumping the rest in simply because of their price.

[Derek27]

Here's an idea. Carry out an honest assessment of the percentage of trades you expect to win. For example, if you're laying at 100, what percentage you expect to get beaten?

If you're cutting your losses at a certain price, you'd need to factor that into the calculation with your losses multiplied by the estimated percentage. Calculate the ratio between your profit and risk taken.

[bobsbetter]

sorry guys this is not a reply to anything,just a different idea,well sort of

what i do is lay the 0-0 score line on certain games but it is world wide
i scout through all the leagues on livescores, look at the u/o stats for the home team pick out all the teams that have an average of 3plus,then check out the odds for u/o in bet365 by clicking on the fixture in the middle if the odds are 1.05 or under thats my pick,ther can be quite a few over the weekend try it out this week let me know

cheers bob

[aidenrn810]

@spreadbetting

All my golf lays assess form, course previous and rankings even those with +100 odds.

These two factors for me are so strong to show a marked difference against other golfers with also very high odds in some cases.

@Derek27

I don't follow the calculation and ratio value that you are suggesting. An example of what you mean would help.....

Thanks

[Derek27]

sorry guys this is not a reply to anything,just a different idea,well sort of

what i do is lay the 0-0 score line on certain games but it is world wide
i scout through all the leagues on livescores, look at the u/o stats for the home team pick out all the teams that have an average of 3plus,then check out the odds for u/o in bet365 by clicking on the fixture in the middle if the odds are 1.05 or under thats my pick,ther can be quite a few over the weekend try it out this week let me know

cheers bob

Laying the 0-0 draw is exactly the same as backing under 0.5 goals, and with cross-matching across markets you should get a similar price. The problem I see is that the likelihood of a goal being scored is reflected on the 1.05 price (or laying at 20).