Football trading strategies

[mickey007]

I have looked into some stratergies for football, but i just cant get the perfect one.

I have now came up with the following,

Back 1.5 over before kick off, and place a small cover bet on correct score ( 0 - 0 ) to cover your stakes that u placed on the 1.5 over market.

Once a goal is scored within 30min, cash out that will green everything.
If NO GOAL is scored within 60min, cash out on the 1.5 over market that will give u a lost on the market of about 30% of your stake, Then you go to the 0 - 0 market and u cash out there with a profit, mostly 350% of your stake so u can use this profit to keep your losses low in the 1.5 market.

Anny thought, or anny idees for finetuning are always helpful!

Cheers,
Mickey

[JustLukeYou]

Hi Mickey007,

Firstly it is important to point that I am new so by know means and expert but I don't there is a perfect system, or any systems that will work perfectly. I think you have different strategies that you apply to different scenarios.

Take for example England are playing tonight. If they go 1-0 but you think England are still get lots of chances to score you back them to win. If they equalise to 1-1 then you can trade out for a profit.

In terms of this forum I don't think you get much insight or useful information tbh. The best advice I have been given is to watch videos by a trader called Paulo Rebelo. They are in Portugese with English subtitles but if you commit time to them they are very useful.

The thing that really helps me is to do pre-match research and take out the anomalies. For example, you might be trading on Southampton at home because very few goals are scored. But two games ago they lost 5-0 to Man City. That result will skew the stats but if they are playing Crystal Palace at home then you take the Man City result out. Also look for whether Southampton score goals early in the match or late in match.

Trading seems to be based on two key elements. Finding an edge and managing your emotions. Sometimes I make a nice profit margin like 300% and then I waste 50% on a trade that I didn't even think through. Someone people win £10m on the lottery but can't manage their emotions and blow it all.

[Kai]

I have looked into some stratergies for football, but i just cant get the perfect one.

Could you define what a perfect strategy would look like to you? Would that be a strategy that could properly cover your stakes so that you could flatly apply it on most matches? Is that what you're looking for?

[mickey007]

I have looked into some stratergies for football, but i just cant get the perfect one.

Could you define what a perfect strategy would look like to you? Would that be a strategy that could properly cover your stakes so that you could flatly apply it on most matches? Is that what you're looking for?

Hi Kai,

Thx for the message..
A perfect stratergy will be were your winnings is high and your losses minimun.
Yeah, i am looking for something were you can cover your stakes and apply them to allot of Football markets...
Anny idees?

[JustLukeYou]

There are videos on YouTube of one guy. In one example he saw that Fiorentina were losing 3-1 to Sassuolo but Fiorentina were favourites. Sassuolo had a player sent off but the lay odds were very low. Like 1.02. He laid it at £20 and Fiorentina scored 2 goals and he made around £750.00.

But based on the odds it is highly unlikely this will happen. The key is to look for value. If the Sassuolo still had 11 men there would be no value but because they had a player sent off there was value in the odds.

[ShaunWhite]

Please don't start giving advice luke. You really don't know what you're talking about.

[JustLukeYou]

Please don't start giving advice luke. You really don't know what you're talking about.

Then say something useful to the person who started this thread. Who are not adding value whatsoever. I challenge you add something positive or constructive to this discussion.

[Kai]

I have looked into some stratergies for football, but i just cant get the perfect one.

Could you define what a perfect strategy would look like to you? Would that be a strategy that could properly cover your stakes so that you could flatly apply it on most matches? Is that what you're looking for?

Hi Kai,

Thx for the message..
A perfect stratergy will be were your winnings is high and your losses minimun.
Yeah, i am looking for something were you can cover your stakes and apply them to allot of Football markets...
Anny idees?

Well a strategy doesn't have to perfect, it just has to be profitable There's probably no such thing as a perfect flat strategy that works on a lot of matches by default, maybe there was many years ago (like LTD) but the markets are too efficient for that. Don't personally think that covering your stakes on other markets is worth doing either, you're either betting with value or you're not, and by managing those bets you effectively trade that market.

If you were successful on horse racing and were paying higher rates of PC like you said iirc, then you probably already realize that you won't get far in football with such strategies. Unless you are very good on the ladder mechanically and are excellent at reading order flow, then maybe you can develop an edge like scalping etc through trial and error.

Btw this is a good little article that sums up what trading football is all about : https://sportstradinglife.com/2018/04/p ... interview/

[jamesg46]

Please don't start giving advice luke. You really don't know what you're talking about.

Imaginary like button pushed, just for being so direct Haha.

[JustLukeYou]

So I am looking to trade the half time score for a match tonight. On Smarkets I back all the scores but none of them have any lays. So are Smarkets but there are absolutely no Lay bets. I couldn't trade out if I wanted to. Are they just trading all the Backs against one another?

[jimibt]

So I am looking to trade the half time score for a match tonight. On Smarkets I back all the scores but none of them have any lays. So are Smarkets but there are absolutely no Lay bets. I couldn't trade out if I wanted to. Are they just trading all the Backs against one another?

lazyhandluke -lol (you are SOO painfully lazy on everything).

ok, did literally a 1-2 second google search (certainly less time than creating a new message on this thread) to help you: https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/arti ... lace-a-bet

[JustLukeYou]

Doesn't answer the question. I have turned to BetFair as they have people laying the odds so I can trade out.

[ShaunWhite]

they have people laying the odds so I can trade out.

And you've been talking to some of those people so next time you bet you know your loss has gone to a good home

Just take care with the min bet size, you don't want to get banned before you get started.
Make sure you read this-> https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Terms.and.Conditions/# or you could face £ problems if you don't understand how things like how match suspensions are settled. This one isn't optional, it's essential.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I am using Smarkets currently. I am looking to move onto BetFair as they have more liquidity.

[jamesg46]

Hi,

I am using Smarkets currently. I am looking to move onto BetFair as they have more liquidity.

I'm not sure where you're at anymore Luke, I've seen so many posts that I feel dizzy just at the sight of your name on the Forum. I think Kai has been very helpful & given a wealth of information, I've been trying to keep up with Kai's posts and have bookmarked some very interesting threads, especially the Eightbo ones...

I'm not sure it matters what exchange you're using at the moment, just taking your time, breathing & absorbing one thing at a time is probably the best advice I can give you... I'm sure as Kai mentioned, you could search whatever it is you need, other than that, if you were to stick to one topic, maybe we could all keep up. I'm certain that the schedule of most people in this forum is hectic, learning to trade, trading, family, jobs etc etc.

The other day I noticed you mention to another Forum user that you dont get what you need from the Forum (or words to that effect) I'm not sure if others are like me, but I dont know what subject you're on from one hour to the next, so how can we be expected to help? Also, you do need to put your own shoes on & I accept that we all had to be shown how to tie our laces, but you're still looking for your socks mate, we dont know where your socks are either, especially when you're telling us you have 15 pairs.

Slow down & breath... everyone & trading is here for the long run.