Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Jukebox]

Luke,
Aren't any of these questions answered in Cann Berry's book?

[JustLukeYou]

Luke,
Aren't any of these questions answered in Cann trade's book?

You are wasting your time with responses like that.

[Jukebox]

I asked a question. It didn't seem unreasonable. You've apparently bought and read Caan Berry's book - it doesn't seem to have enlightened you in even the most basic way. Is this because the book was waste of time?

[JustLukeYou]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone have a link to a BetAngel video that explains EV.

If you search YouTube for BetAngel Expected Value this is the number one ranked video but it doesn't discuss EV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oPM-Xgm2XA

[sa7med]

Does anyone have a link to a BetAngel video that explains EV.

If you search YouTube for BetAngel Expected Value this is the number one ranked video but it doesn't discuss EV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oPM-Xgm2XA

if you stand to profit x, y% of the time and lose z, 100-y% then your expected value is x*y - z(100-y)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

[JustLukeYou]

At the moment I am watching this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6nxqyEhHiA

Seems to be the best resource so far.

[Jukebox]

To calculate your EV Luke you are first going to have to come up with a value for your spidey sense to compare against the odds on offer.

[JustLukeYou]

To calculate your EV Luke you are first going to have to come up with a value for your spidey sense to compare against the odds on offer.

The odds on offer are 2.4 but I think they should be 2.6.

Is there also a BetAngel video which explains what EV is?

[JustLukeYou]

So lets say the odds are Home 2.8 Draw 3.0 Away 3.0 but I offer 3.1 for Home and back Draw and Away then the Expected Value is positive.

This is the only way to get a positive EV?

[Derek27]

Well I'm only dealing with pennies. Today I have staked £1.15 and got £1.83 back.

In terms of SoccerMystic I still don't understand how it helps. I can't see how it helps to know what the odds will be in 22 minutes if no goals are scored when in reality 2 goals have been scored.

You're not likely to understand it until you've learned basic trading, as I keep saying.

You take a position expecting a goal to be scored or not to be scored and trade out at a specific time for a profit?

That's just gambling unless you understand EV.

I doubt he'll ever understand trading if he hasn't got it by now.

I gave an explanation of basic trading and you ignored it.

Taking a position based on whether or not you expect a goal to be scored has little to do with trading. As I keep saying you're not even interested in learning the basics.

[JustLukeYou]

You're not likely to understand it until you've learned basic trading, as I keep saying.

You take a position expecting a goal to be scored or not to be scored and trade out at a specific time for a profit?

I doubt he'll ever understand trading if he hasn't got it by now.

I gave an explanation of basic trading and you ignored it.

Taking a position based on whether or not you expect a goal to be scored has little to do with trading. As I keep saying you're not even interested in learning the basics.

That is what Peter says in a number videos. That is also what Caan Berry says. Care to explain otherwise?

[Derek27]

To calculate your EV Luke you are first going to have to come up with a value for your spidey sense to compare against the odds on offer.

The odds on offer are 2.4 but I think they should be 2.6.

Is there also a BetAngel video which explains what EV is?

Your question was answered 3 posts ago. Don't you bother reading your replies?

[Derek27]

So lets say the odds are Home 2.8 Draw 3.0 Away 3.0 but I offer 3.1 for Home and back Draw and Away then the Expected Value is positive.

This is the only way to get a positive EV?

No, because your "offer" won't necessarily get matched. It all depends on what the true chances are.

[ShaunWhite]

Google "Positive expectancy" and "Trade expectancy". If that doesn't keep you quiet then nothing will.

If you're not sure how to get to Google, then just type 'google' into Alta Vista and follow the link.