Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[Derek27]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

Have you actually done the full 20-minute course?

If you did, do you seriously expect every trading concept to be explained, or even mentioned in a 20-minute course?

[Speculator_3]

Further, take the example on Eintracht vs Leverkusen game I gave you on this very thread. As I remember, the Eintract win odds that were given on Betfair were 2.98. You verified that EV is zero. The odds of 2.98 correspond to probability of 1/2.98 = 0.3357 of Eintracht winning the game.

Now suppose that you've done extensive analysis on Eintracht / looked into a crystal ball and you are convinced that in fact the probability of Eintracht winning the game is higher. It's actually 0.5.

This means that your EV will be positive. Thus, if you take the odds of 2.98 (and this game repeats itself over and over and over gain hundreds / thousandths of times), you will be in profit.

Remember:EV is concerned with long term averages. This is why people tell you that you need to trade hundreds of matches to evaluate whether overall you are in profit or loss.

Okay, so that helps a lot. Sho se EV in a practical sense during a live match for example. At the moment I sometimes see odds and think they are way to high and back them because they offer real value based on what I expect to happen.

I am planning to focus on trading specific teams as at the moment I am taking a complete scatter gun approach, do you think that will help me to identify to use this process.

I have set up a spreadsheet calculator but I am currently using the odds provided by the markets ould apply my own odds as I can only lay or back the odds provided the market.

I have to say your reply is top quality. Many thanks.

Bloody hell my insert button is stuck I cant edit text properly.

You are welcome.

Spotting odds that are value is something that no-one can / will teach you. It comes with experience. Psychoff in one of his interviews talks about this.

[JustLukeYou]

Further, take the example on Eintracht vs Leverkusen game I gave you on this very thread. As I remember, the Eintract win odds that were given on Betfair were 2.98. You verified that EV is zero. The odds of 2.98 correspond to probability of 1/2.98 = 0.3357 of Eintracht winning the game.

Now suppose that you've done extensive analysis on Eintracht / looked into a crystal ball and you are convinced that in fact the probability of Eintracht winning the game is higher. It's actually 0.5.

This means that your EV will be positive. Thus, if you take the odds of 2.98 (and this game repeats itself over and over and over gain hundreds / thousandths of times), you will be in profit.

Remember:EV is concerned with long term averages. This is why people tell you that you need to trade hundreds of matches to evaluate whether overall you are in profit or loss.

Okay, so that helps a lot. Sho se EV in a practical sense during a live match for example. At the moment I sometimes see odds and think they are way to high and back them because they offer real value based on what I expect to happen.

I am planning to focus on trading specific teams as at the moment I am taking a complete scatter gun approach, do you think that will help me to identify to use this process.

I have set up a spreadsheet calculator but I am currently using the odds provided by the markets ould apply my own odds as I can only lay or back the odds provided the market.

I have to say your reply is top quality. Many thanks.

Bloody hell my insert button is stuck I cant edit text properly.

You are welcome.

Spotting odds that are value is something that no-one can / will teach you. It comes with experience. Psychoff in one of his interviews talks about this.

I have read a few of Psychoff interviews and now that someone has explained in plan English using an example it helps massively.

To make money long term you could look for teams that the market undervalues. The classic example would be Leicester when they won the title. If you backed them to win every game you would make a nice profit where as if you back Liverpool or Man City at the moment you might not make a profit because the odds for them to win are so low currently.

[JustLukeYou]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

Have you actually done the full 20-minute course?

If you did, do you seriously expect every trading concept to be explained, or even mentioned in a 20-minute course?

Derek, take a step back and have a look at who is being the troll in this situation. Someone has kindly taken the time to explain something in plain English. You on the other hand are like someone walking into a pub and asking for non-alcoholic beer. IE wasting their time.

If you have something useful to say please feel free to do so.

[Derek27]

Derek, please stop wasting your own time. You are spending your time on a forum and posting messages that offer absolutely no use or benefit whatsoever. If you said

"Basic football trading is..."

Then that would be useful and constructive where as you are just wasting your own time. Please for the seventh time, please do not get involved and allow other people who can contribute to a forum positively to get involved.

All your doing is explaining how NOT to do something when in 10 seconds you could explain HOW to do something so we could be here for eternity. I hope that makes things clear.

Basic football trading is basic sports trading, which is only applied to football. I trust you understand what basic sports trading is.

Derek27, I want to us to sort this out as it disruptive to this forum. I want you to spend 10 seconds explaining what basic football trading is. If you can't meet that challenge then you have to agree to not reply to any of my posts. At the moment you behaving like a bitter old man / wise-ass that is constantly disrupting constructive discussions.

Either accept the challenge and contribute to this discussion or keep out.

I hate to tell you this Luke, but you're living in a world where you can't have everything, or anything, that you want!

When you say basic football trading, you mean the basics of trading football. Do you seriously think it can be explained in 10 seconds? Two hours would be more appropriate!

You're obviously too lazy to spend more than a minute doing anything, reading, thinking, watching videos, are you really concentrating for the full 50 minutes of a trading video?

[JustLukeYou]

Derek27, if you can't explain something a short piece of text maybe your time would be better spent making hour long videos?

[JustLukeYou]

Derek27, as we speak Flamengo are playing Fluminese. I backed BTTS No at 2.08 and in the 68th minute traded it out for 1.34 and made a profit.

Surely that is classic example of football trading?

If you disagree please feel free to explain why on here or in a lengthier video.

[Derek27]

I'm grateful for your efforts even if you don't get a thank you from Luke...

Okay, so that helps a lot...

I have to say your reply is top quality. Many thanks...

That's a trick I used to deploy on eight-year-old children - work's every time.

[JustLukeYou]

Derek, can I ask your age?

Are you a bitter old man who acts like a wise ass to try and impress some people at the expense of other people and comes across as an unhelpful troll on forums?

[jimibt]

right, where's that BIG LONG STRETCH icon??. Off to bed -enjoy the sparring!!

[JustLukeYou]

right, where's that BIG LONG STRETCH icon??. Off to bed -enjoy the sparring!!

It seems to me the way to make money long term is to look for odds that are higher than they should be. Would you say that is correct?

With Leicester when they won the title, the people who thought they could win the title would have made a profit by backing them in individual matches or backing them to win the title whilst the rest of the market massively (in this case) underrated them and their chances of winning the title.

[Speculator_3]

right, where's that BIG LONG STRETCH icon??. Off to bed -enjoy the sparring!!

It seems to me the way to make money long term is to look for odds that are higher than they should be. Would you say that is correct?

Or lower that they should be.

[Derek27]

What would be helpful is if someone explained what EV is. It isn't mentioned in the Betfair Trading Crash Course.

Have you actually done the full 20-minute course?

If you did, do you seriously expect every trading concept to be explained, or even mentioned in a 20-minute course?

Derek, take a step back and have a look at who is being the troll in this situation. Someone has kindly taken the time to explain something in plain English. You on the other hand are like someone walking into a pub and asking for non-alcoholic beer. IE wasting their time.

If you have something useful to say please feel free to do so.

Luke, I think it's fairly obvious that you won't have much understanding of what Speculator_3 said, considering you needed me to break down a simple uncomplicated sentence. You gave Shaun 9 seconds, and me 10 to explain what you want, but your new favourite teacher has all the time in the world.

Speculator_3 has just told you something that I've been telling you for, don't know how long but it feels like two years:-

Spotting odds that are value is something that no-one can / will teach you. It comes with experience.

I've told you that several times!

(I should point out that several posts have been submitted to this thread as I post this - I'm still working my way through the thread).

[Derek27]

Derek27, if you can't explain something a short piece of text maybe your time would be better spent making hour long videos?

If you read that single sentence really carefully you'll realise it doesn't actually make any sense - I think the words are jumbled up!

[JustLukeYou]

Have you actually done the full 20-minute course?

If you did, do you seriously expect every trading concept to be explained, or even mentioned in a 20-minute course?

Derek, take a step back and have a look at who is being the troll in this situation. Someone has kindly taken the time to explain something in plain English. You on the other hand are like someone walking into a pub and asking for non-alcoholic beer. IE wasting their time.

If you have something useful to say please feel free to do so.

Luke, I think it's fairly obvious that you won't have much understanding of what Speculator_3 said, considering you needed me to break down a simple uncomplicated sentence. You gave Shaun 9 seconds, and me 10 to explain what you want, but your new favourite teacher has all the time in the world.

Speculator_3 has just told you something that I've been telling you for, don't know how long but it feels like two years:-

Spotting odds that are value is something that no-one can / will teach you. It comes with experience.

I've told you that several times!

(I should point out that several posts have been submitted to this thread as I post this - I'm still working my way through the thread).

Derek27, if you said "You want to back odds that are higher then what they should be or lay odds that are lower than they should be that would be actionable"

People ACT on ACTIONS.

A CTA, Call To Action.

I sell on Amazon, Amazon is Call To Action machine that generates many billions of dollars.