jamesg46 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2019 4:22 am
Speculator_3 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:08 am
Any idea why CFR Cluj is priced at 1.6 and Astra is at 6.4 (Romanian Liga 1 for tomorrow's match, while Astra is in the top position in the table, with Cluj second?
Betfair haven't yet opened Liverpool vs Leicester so 3rd vs 2nd will have to do...
I dont think its anything out of the ordinary.... it's just the probability, Leicester are playing well & I'm sure.a hint of that will be reflected in the price but it cant be priced on that event in isolation. That's my theory... be interesting to know why in some more factual depth from the more knowledgeable.
Not more knowledgeable than you, but always willing to throw an opinion into the mix.
My starting point is the predictor spready to compare specific Home and Away records = potential outcome. It also indicates goals in the game, which can convert to a correct score prediction or various trade opportunities.
MCvLeic.GIF
Using the same spready, I can produce a total team score by inputting the individual team's Home/Away data and dividing by 2
This converts to;
Leicester; 347
Man City; 290
So this confirms that both teams's rating are similar to the current form rating.
Conclusion;
Looks set for a good game that could be a trading nightmare as it swings to and fro with VAR ready to play it's part too.

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