Cheltenham 2020

[wearthefoxhat]

how are they even trying to stop this virus, cant really quarantine everyone once too many people have it

It won't be stopped unless a cure is found. Even if we get a vaccine, folk could still get it now it's out in the wild.

At the moment the UK is still in the containment phase and still nothing like what we have seen in China or Italy. I would imagine we will get to the point of physically limiting movement when we hit ~1k confirmed cases. Looking at the growth in S Korea and Italy, we are still in the early days but possibly at the point where things start to kick off - I'll make a guess we'll have 1000 confirmed case mid festival.

It'll "eventually" become the new flu norm with a vaccine in place, with recommendation to take the covid-19 jab once a year for the older generation. Stats like this will be standard;

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[wearthefoxhat]

Latest odds...price crashes again.

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[ricardodeano]

how are they even trying to stop this virus, cant really quarantine everyone once too many people have it

It won't be stopped unless a cure is found. Even if we get a vaccine, folk could still get it now it's out in the wild.

At the moment the UK is still in the containment phase and still nothing like what we have seen in China or Italy. I would imagine we will get to the point of physically limiting movement when we hit ~1k confirmed cases. Looking at the growth in S Korea and Italy, we are still in the early days but possibly at the point where things start to kick off - I'll make a guess we'll have 1000 confirmed case mid festival.

It'll "eventually" become the new flu norm with a vaccine in place, with recommendation to take the covid-19 jab once a year for the older generation. Stats like this will be standard;


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Yeah for sure. With any luck it will be more like flu as opposed to the common cold but even that isn't clear yet.

[rik]

so your actually betting on that, i wouldnt have a clue what price should be or which way likely to go
only thing i could think of is scan news feed of different different than expected numbers of new cases

[ricardodeano]

how are they even trying to stop this virus, cant really quarantine everyone once too many people have it

It won't be stopped unless a cure is found. Even if we get a vaccine, folk could still get it now it's out in the wild.

At the moment the UK is still in the containment phase and still nothing like what we have seen in China or Italy. I would imagine we will get to the point of physically limiting movement when we hit ~1k confirmed cases. Looking at the growth in S Korea and Italy, we are still in the early days but possibly at the point where things start to kick off - I'll make a guess we'll have 1000 confirmed case mid festival.

Just announced there are 40 confirmed cases so my prediction looks rather optimistic/pessimistic depending upon your viewpoint!

If it increases daily like this, ie. single digits, the 1.37 seems a steal.

[rik]

but you dont know 1000 would be a number that they would cancel the event do you thats just another guess

[ricardodeano]

but you dont know 1000 would be a number that they would cancel the event do you thats just another guess

It's all guess work Rik based upon what we've seen in Italy and South Korea.

We also don't know how authoritarian the current government is. They may very well think we need a cull of the elderly, sick and poor anyway so let it run a mock....

[ricardodeano]

I jest of course

[ricardodeano]

1.27 now. All been one way this afternoon.

[ricardodeano]

Just touched 1.19!

[Euler]

Could be my best trade this Cheltenham.

[rik]

ill leave it to the experts, what exactly made you think to back yes, too hard to evaluate that, no past data, how im supposed to know what the government or race organisers are planning, only good noone else would know much more either

[wearthefoxhat]

ill leave it to the experts, what exactly made you think to back yes, too hard to evaluate that, no past data, how im supposed to know what the government or race organisers are planning, only good noone else would know much more either

Euler will have his ideas, for me it was the sentiment of the global markets factoring in the coronavirus impact, resulted in up to a 10% drop last week. Today they bounced back, Dow Jones +1,200 pts today alone so far, as there is better news from China.

This mirror imaged this market, drifting out to 1.90 during the weekend, dropping today to 1.25 as the global market recovered.

Of course there may be a sting in the tail, but for trading purposes, the momentum was there to see.

[ricardodeano]

ill leave it to the experts, what exactly made you think to back yes, too hard to evaluate that, no past data, how im supposed to know what the government or race organisers are planning, only good noone else would know much more either

I am certainly not an expert but here are the reasons I backed yes:

1. I purely punt Cheltenham so this was money I had set aside I was to happy to lose anyway so if it goes ahead, great, I've got a Brucie Bonus. If it doesn't go ahead, I've only lost what I was going to lose anyway. If it doesn't go ahead now, in my opinion, it wouldn't be run this year as this won't get better quickly, if anything it will get worse as the weeks go on.
2. Doesn't look like the weather will play a factor in whether it will go ahead or not. Outlook looks reasonably settled as compared to the past few weeks and weather should dry the ground up.
3. As I have asthma and my father is in a care home, I've been paying close attention to the confirmed cases figure. To date, they are not shooting up as rapidly as we have seen in other countries. I'm pretty sure we will see that rise sharply at some point over the next few weeks but it isn't progressing that quickly here....yet.
4. I would imagine there have been chats about running it behind closed doors and I suspect they would do that. They'd obviously lose a lot of money in hospitality but I would imagine betting companies would put a lot of pressure on Cheltenham for it to go ahead, regardless if 65k crowds are there.
5. When I was umming and arring about whether to enter the market, I watched it for a bit and then thought "fuck it, everyone else is going for it...let's go!"

Rik, I am by far and away from a successful or profitable trader so my reasoning is not necessarily something you should take as good practise! Having said that, hopefully I have learnt from this experience myself. All trading really is making your best guess based on the evidence you are presented with. Too often I have gone in to pre off racing and just jumped in without actually engaging my brain or looking to find supporting evidence.

There's still plenty of time for this to go tits up and for me to lose my money but I had a plan, I've executed it to the best of my ability so lets just see what happens.

[ricardodeano]

FWIW, and that means bugger all, I'm out now.

Confirmed cases increased from 39 to 51, the news of which saw the price drift out by around 3/4 ticks within the past hour. I've left a bit on the lay side of yes as I think we'll see a bit of a drift each time the daily announcement of cases increases. Again, all just guess work but I'm pleased just making a profit!

I still think Cheltenham will go ahead, I am just erring on the side of caution in case cases suddenly explode.