Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Dallas]

Euro 2020 is 50/50

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .169620314

I reckon the panic will be over by then. People will eventually start realising that the panic itself is actually more dangerous than the bug plus the boredom factor will set in unless there are a serious level of mortalities to sustain the fear. Doesnt normal flu kill about 17000 a year or circa 1400 a month?

I noticed a movie from 2011 called contagion was showing as a most watched on a streaming service and I actually just ended up watching it and found it quite good watch, it highlighted pretty much what you have just said about panic being worse than the virus itself

[superfrank]

This isn't an ordinary flu. The authorities in Italy aren't quarantining the whole country out of panic.

Here's a sobering case study from the Telegraph.

Case 4: Male, 50. Critical
A 50-year-old man was admitted to a fever clinic in Beijing on January 21 with symptoms of fever, chills, cough, fatigue and shortness of breath.

He had been in Wuhan between January 8-12 and told doctors he first noticed symptoms of “mild chills and dry cough” on January 14 . But rather than immediately seek medical help, he kept working for another week. Chest X-rays revealed multiple patchy shadows in both lungs and tests showed he had Covid-19.

He was immediately admitted to an isolation ward and received supplemental oxygen through a face mask. After receiving medication, including antivirals and antibiotics, his body temperature reduced from 39C to 36.4C. However, his cough, breathlessness and fatigue persisted.

On day 12 of his illness, his breathing became more laboured but he refused ventilator support in the intensive care unit repeatedly because he suffered from claustrophobia.

Then in the afternoon of day 14, his blood oxygen levels and shortness of breath worsened. Despite receiving high flow oxygen therapy, the oxygen saturation levels in his blood dropped to 60 per cent, and the patient had “sudden cardiac arrest”.

He was immediately given invasive ventilation, chest compression, and adrenaline but could not be resuscitated. He died at 18:31 (Beijing time) on January 27.

Adapted from: A paper in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal

Roll on Spring - let's hope the warmer weather brings some relief.

[Kai]

I noticed a movie from 2011 called contagion was showing as a most watched on a streaming service and I actually just ended up watching it and found it quite good watch, it highlighted pretty much what you have just said about panic being worse than the virus itself

Good shout, the Wuhan situation very early on reminded me of Contagion right away.

There's also a good show that I very much enjoyed watching, with a similar storyline where a virus wipes out the whole planet, sounds grim but it's actually a comedy called The Last Man On Earth : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTKDdLWIiiA

Something to bingewatch for those that are stuck in quarantine? I've finished the show last year.

[sniffer66]

We were a little slow in converting our pension portfolio to cash over a week ago but saved us a fortune yesterday/last few days.

Lucky you. I don't have that option until October, and then only 25 % tax free. Will have to ride it out and hope for a decent bounce back

[Kai]

Someone crunched the numbers and claims that Iran (80mil population) probably has around 2mil cases which is a bit higher than the 7k that they're reporting : https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... ms/607663/

I think this little graph below does a decent job at showing the difference between the 2 main approaches of combating the virus, with Singapore and Hong Kong doing a similarly good job like South Korea so they benefited from a steady linear progression of new cases. While all the other countries on the chart are doing the exact opposite and are getting hit with exponential progression which then has a massive effect on the markets because the panic spreads far more quickly than the actual virus. It also overwhelms the healthcare system to the point where the critical cases needlessly end up dying more often, and then the inevitable drastic quarantine measures have to be put in effect like in the case of Italy.

[spreadbetting]

This isn't an ordinary flu. The authorities in Italy aren't quarantining the whole country out of panic.

Here's a sobering case study from the Telegraph.

Case 4: Male, 50. Critical
A 50-year-old man was admitted to a fever clinic in Beijing on January 21 with symptoms of fever, chills, cough, fatigue and shortness of breath.

He had been in Wuhan between January 8-12 and told doctors he first noticed symptoms of “mild chills and dry cough” on January 14 . But rather than immediately seek medical help, he kept working for another week. Chest X-rays revealed multiple patchy shadows in both lungs and tests showed he had Covid-19.

He was immediately admitted to an isolation ward and received supplemental oxygen through a face mask. After receiving medication, including antivirals and antibiotics, his body temperature reduced from 39C to 36.4C. However, his cough, breathlessness and fatigue persisted.

On day 12 of his illness, his breathing became more laboured but he refused ventilator support in the intensive care unit repeatedly because he suffered from claustrophobia.

Then in the afternoon of day 14, his blood oxygen levels and shortness of breath worsened. Despite receiving high flow oxygen therapy, the oxygen saturation levels in his blood dropped to 60 per cent, and the patient had “sudden cardiac arrest”.

He was immediately given invasive ventilation, chest compression, and adrenaline but could not be resuscitated. He died at 18:31 (Beijing time) on January 27.

Adapted from: A paper in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal

Roll on Spring - let's hope the warmer weather brings some relief.

Hardly a sobering experience, he carried on working for a week and refused medical advice and oxygen.

[superfrank]

Hardly a sobering experience, he carried on working for a week and refused medical advice and oxygen.

Try this one then.

On January 19, a 35-year-old man wearing a face mask entered an urgent health care facility in Snohomish County, Washington. Just back from visiting relatives in Wuhan, China he had been feverish and coughing for several days.

Doctors were swift to act. They notified state officials who in turn alerted the federal Emergency Operations Centre in Atlanta. Nose and throat swabs were taken and sent for analysis. The man was initially taken home and isolated.

The following day the tests came back positive: it was the first of a rapidly rising number of Covid-19 cases to be diagnosed on American soil and the first indication that Washington state would become an epidemic hotspot.

The US now has more than 300 confirmed cases. On admission, the patient reported a “persistent dry cough” and a two-day history of nausea and vomiting. His mucus membranes were found to be dry but he had no shortness of breath or chest pain. “His vital signs were within normal ranges”.

For the next three days (days six to nine of his illness) the man remained “largely stable” in a specialist hospital isolation unit. His cough continued, he had intermittent fever and several loose bowel movements. Doctors noted that he “appeared fatigued”.

Apart from hypertriglyceridemia - a common precursor to heart disease - the patient was a healthy nonsmoker. At just 35, he was also young. Yet his condition started to deteriorate.

On the night of his ninth day of illness, an X-ray showed evidence of pneumonia in the lower left lobe of his left lung. This “coincided with a change in respiratory status”, with his oxygen saturation levels dropping sharply from from 96 to 90 per cent.

Now on supplemental oxygen and apparently on a downward slope, the patient was diagnosed with “severe pneumonia” on day 10 when new chest radiographs showed the virus had spread to both his lungs.

Doctors were concerned enough to administer an experimental antiviral called remdesivir, which was first developed to combat Ebola and is now being more widely tested in the US and China as a treatment for coronavirus.

Two days later the patient’s condition started to improve. Twelve days after first falling ill and eight days in hospital, he was able to breathe properly without oxygen and his lungs had cleared.

“His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea [snotty nose],” noted the hospital.

Adapted from: A paper in the New England Journal of Medicine

Italian doctors warned colleagues across Europe last week to “get ready” for coronavirus. In a letter they said up to 10 per cent of all those infected would require admission to an intensive care unit (ICU).

That's the scary thing - health services could quickly get overwhelmed.

[greenmark]

Hardly a sobering experience, he carried on working for a week and refused medical advice and oxygen.

Try this one then.

On January 19, a 35-year-old man wearing a face mask entered an urgent health care facility in Snohomish County, Washington. Just back from visiting relatives in Wuhan, China he had been feverish and coughing for several days.

Doctors were swift to act. They notified state officials who in turn alerted the federal Emergency Operations Centre in Atlanta. Nose and throat swabs were taken and sent for analysis. The man was initially taken home and isolated.

The following day the tests came back positive: it was the first of a rapidly rising number of Covid-19 cases to be diagnosed on American soil and the first indication that Washington state would become an epidemic hotspot.

The US now has more than 300 confirmed cases. On admission, the patient reported a “persistent dry cough” and a two-day history of nausea and vomiting. His mucus membranes were found to be dry but he had no shortness of breath or chest pain. “His vital signs were within normal ranges”.

For the next three days (days six to nine of his illness) the man remained “largely stable” in a specialist hospital isolation unit. His cough continued, he had intermittent fever and several loose bowel movements. Doctors noted that he “appeared fatigued”.

Apart from hypertriglyceridemia - a common precursor to heart disease - the patient was a healthy nonsmoker. At just 35, he was also young. Yet his condition started to deteriorate.

On the night of his ninth day of illness, an X-ray showed evidence of pneumonia in the lower left lobe of his left lung. This “coincided with a change in respiratory status”, with his oxygen saturation levels dropping sharply from from 96 to 90 per cent.

Now on supplemental oxygen and apparently on a downward slope, the patient was diagnosed with “severe pneumonia” on day 10 when new chest radiographs showed the virus had spread to both his lungs.

Doctors were concerned enough to administer an experimental antiviral called remdesivir, which was first developed to combat Ebola and is now being more widely tested in the US and China as a treatment for coronavirus.

Two days later the patient’s condition started to improve. Twelve days after first falling ill and eight days in hospital, he was able to breathe properly without oxygen and his lungs had cleared.

“His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea [snotty nose],” noted the hospital.

Adapted from: A paper in the New England Journal of Medicine

Italian doctors warned colleagues across Europe last week to “get ready” for coronavirus. In a letter they said up to 10 per cent of all those infected would require admission to an intensive care unit (ICU).

That's the scary thing - health services could quickly get overwhelmed.

Maybe the NHS could be overwhelmed. But in the UK the NHS is managed by the govt. So its the govt that is held to account every few years. Not making political points here. The public will act at the ballot box on how this is handled.
I honestly think we're doing OK. Just follow hygiene advice and keep calm.

[Kai]

I honestly think we're doing OK. Just follow hygiene advice and keep calm.

David Maddock of Daily Mirror has a very different opinion below, copied it over from his Twitter.

A short thread on the insanity of the Tory Govt’s reckless approach to Coronavirus, as they refuse to take action to restrict travel from Madrid, despite a major outbreak there, where the contagion rate is growing faster than anywhere else in the world.

In Spain, the authorities have ordered all La Liga games to be played behind closed doors with no fans. That is sensible - and necessary - because there have already been 35 deaths after a 100% increase in cases in less than 2 days, with HALF of them coming in Madrid.

That means it is illegal for Atletico Madrid fans to watch their own team in their own stadium, or travel to upcoming games in Bilbao or Pamplona, for fear of the very real risk of spreading the deadly virus and creating a pandemic.

And yet those same fans (thousands of them) ARE allowed to travel to the UK for the CL game at Anfield - through several major transport hubs - and mingle with the population of Liverpool over several days, without tests or restrictions.

They will also be allowed to enter the Anfield stadium, where a crowd of more than 54,000 is expected. LFC are understandably concerned and uncomfortable with the situation.

But without clear advice from the Govt, they can do nothing to prevent the free movement of those fans, under current legislation, while rule restrictions illegal. So they can do nothing to reduce the risk of spread from Madrid, now a major virus hotspot.

The authorities in Spain (and Italy, France, Austria and Germany) are taking decisive action to try and curtail the spread of the virus. Our Tory Govt though, is happy to see unrestricted access for Atletico fans, and has done nothing to help LFC.

If there is a major cluster in Liverpool over the next fortnight, then it is easy to see who will be to blame: the complacency of our ridiculous Govt. Over to you, @BorisJohnson.

[Kai]

Major price shift in the (weak) Euro 2020 market after news broke that several European federations asked UEFA to postpone EURO 2020 until 2021, in order to complete their respective championships. The idea is being considered by UEFA.

[PDC]

David Maddock of Daily Mirror has a very different opinion below, copied it over from his Twitter.

Forgot you had to be a scientist to be a journalist these days.

I think I will leave the decisions to the scientific community who have laid out pretty clearly what the plan is and how that is going to develop in the coming days.

Although still in the containment phase and that will continue during the delay phase, the government have been clear that the spread is going to get a lot worse.

Anyone who watched the full news conference held yesterday by the PM and the 2 advisers would struggle to have been left in any doubt what the reasons for not banning large public gatherings such as football matches or (oddly received a lot of air time) going to church and banning flights are.

As was said, in the next 10 to 14 days if not sooner we will move into the delay part based on the science.

[Kai]

I'm aware that northerners aren't too fond of the Tories ( ) but that particular decision seems easy enough to make, multiple other UCL matches are being played behind closed doors. Ironically, Liverpool probably need Anfield to get a result but at what potential cost?

[Trader Pat]

I'm aware that northerners aren't too fond of the Tories ( ) but that particular decision seems easy enough to make, multiple other UCL matches are being played behind closed doors. Ironically, Liverpool probably need Anfield to get a result but at what potential cost?

I might be biased but personally I think Liverpool defending their Champions League crown is worth a few casualties

[PDC]

that particular decision seems easy enough to make, multiple other UCL matches are being played behind closed doors.

As was stated yesterday at the press conference, what is currently appropriate for other countries is not necessarily appropriate for the UK at the present time.

Based on what scientific evidence that is counter to the current science that the Government are being advised is it a "decision (which) seems easy enough to make"?

Other than, other countries are doing it? What would be the reason for playing a match behind closed doors in the UK?

If you haven't watched it, watch yesterday's Press Conference in full.

This is gradually becoming an issue to beat the current government with based on their handling of it. For me, I am thankful they are following the advice of the scientific community and not the community of twitter etc that seems to know much more than the scientists that have years and years of experience and access to much greater resources and data than just about everyone else such as people like David Maddock.

Effectively he is advising the government to ignore the science and make it up as they go along.

Any government that does that deserves all that they get at the ballot box, but if anyone thinks that Labour would be doing different to the current government are dreaming. Labour would be following the science and not what the MP's and Twitter may or may not want and rightly so.

When the situation gets worse, which we have been told by the government it will, twitter and the rest of the woke brigade will be blaming Boris and the in action of the government and ignoring the fact that they are being guided by the science which as the press conference highlighted yesterday shows that currently in the UK banning public gatherings at the moment is not appropriate.

They were quite clear that things are going to get a lot worse in the UK.

And in time we will move to the next stage but that we should not move to that stage before the science shows we should.

To me that is a far better way of doing it than following what people are tweeting.

[PDC]

Looking at the (lack of) News headlines and twitter and forums etc it is quite telling about human psychology how it isn't full of the fact the US has closed up almost 5% with a well over 1,000 point gain in the Dow.