These are tomorrow's meetings, guessing the only ones still undecided are Pakenham, 'bool and Albany? The rest going ahead?
Australian racing
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Dr_Zoidberg
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:09 am
Zahra returned a negative result, there goes my theory! Good news obviously, both for Mark and for AU racing.
Great news! All systems go - until the next timeDr_Zoidberg wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:13 amZahra returned a negative result, there goes my theory! Good news obviously, both for Mark and for AU racing.
Reminds me of when Sedgefield was told they can't race again without making safety improvements, following a pile-up in which three horses died. installing a few gates to make it easier for loose horses to get off-course made it safer, but it hardly made the difference between safe and unsafe. It's really a case of being seen to do something to justify going ahead with racing.
they should really have a better solution for suspending australian races on time, do they really have to do that manually for each race? cant bookmakers/exchange just get a signal from the starter like they do for greyhound racing?
sapphire caoast favourite missed price jump up 30% pre race, all other prices autocorrect
now beaudesert favourite trading evens, start price 2.42...
every race is late, some courses later than others but most of the time you dont see big movements its just the start was even enough for the fastest guy not to massively back first horse out or lay missed start, how do they expect anyone with a brain leaving prices up or have any kind of automated bookmaking strategy
sapphire caoast favourite missed price jump up 30% pre race, all other prices autocorrect
now beaudesert favourite trading evens, start price 2.42...
every race is late, some courses later than others but most of the time you dont see big movements its just the start was even enough for the fastest guy not to massively back first horse out or lay missed start, how do they expect anyone with a brain leaving prices up or have any kind of automated bookmaking strategy
i watch the market im not stupid every greyhound race is suspended 2 seconds before actual start of the race so they must be connected to the starter
if you have your stake trying to back the favourite at evens while its trading at 1.97, then 50 quickfire bets lay the favourite right before suspension making it SP 2,5 and price stabilises at 4s inrunning you effectively lost half your stake trying to trade for a few ticks, i get it in harness racing you have to be careful although also think they could suspend in the run up already but shouldnt happen in flat racing, you shouldnt back a horse missing the start in a pre race bet or lay one that jumped out perfect, you actually get matched on all others as well with cross matching if there is a big move on one of the favourites
if you have your stake trying to back the favourite at evens while its trading at 1.97, then 50 quickfire bets lay the favourite right before suspension making it SP 2,5 and price stabilises at 4s inrunning you effectively lost half your stake trying to trade for a few ticks, i get it in harness racing you have to be careful although also think they could suspend in the run up already but shouldnt happen in flat racing, you shouldnt back a horse missing the start in a pre race bet or lay one that jumped out perfect, you actually get matched on all others as well with cross matching if there is a big move on one of the favourites
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Dr_Zoidberg
- Posts: 88
- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:09 am
I believe the various TAB's do have a direct link to the starting mechanism but it's probably proprietary and unavailable to third parties. I've experimented on course with trying to place a bet the moment they jump (and before the caller announces they are racing) and it's always rejected. I've heard rumours that it's possible to get on after the jump (in particular from Robbie Waterhouse) but it's not possible in my experience and would in fact be against the law on the part of the TAB (totalisator bets anyway) as it's a statutory requirement to reject racing bets after the jump.
The way Betfair appear to be closing AU markets is off the Sky 1 and 2 feeds which are 4-5 second delayed. The reason the greyhounds are suspended before the jump is because they close the market when the green light is switched on (on average 7-8 seconds before the actual jump), so even with the picture delay they haven't jumped yet.
I can only see another 3 options, none particularly viable for various reasons.
1. Suspend on the basis of the AM radio call which is essentially real time. The problem with this method is probably only 60% of races are broadcast.
2. Somehow 'scrape' market closures direct from the TAB. The issue is that generally they only update every 30 seconds so it would have to be a script that continually attempts to place bets until one is rejected on the basis of race closure. Would no doubt be copyright issues amongst other problems.
3. Have a BF employ someone at every track they cover. Given how vast the country is and how remote some of the tracks are it just wouldn't work.
So the system as it stands isn't perfect but is probably the best we can hope for.
You may or may not be right about someone trading the jump, but the SP price is, to a degree, independent of the LTP, especially in a thin market. So the fact that this particular horse jumped from 4.1 to 5.22 literally tells you nothing. The SP can be changed by this magnitude in some AU races by $100 either way. Trade accordingly.
No reason not to use this option, even if you don't get every race it is still a substantial improvement on the current situation. Actual would be a lot higher than 60% of races on AM radio. Some meetings you can be near certain will have live radio broadcast. Those where it is less certain you can adjust your strategy.Dr_Zoidberg wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:13 am
1. Suspend on the basis of the AM radio call which is essentially real time. The problem with this method is probably only 60% of races are broadcast.