Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[greenmark]

Yeah, Russia is a good shout, they took an absolute age to even get their first few cases.

My missus's brother is a teacher in China. He wasnt allowed out of his apartment for 4 weeks under any circumstances. Specially designated members of the public did everyones food shopping for them and took dirty clothes to the laundrette. The lockdown was incredibly strict.

Not that I care about that corner of the world but seen footage of people's homes being barricaded from the outside to make sure they don't leave, and heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive. One thing is for damn sure, China knows how to Party.

Why do you not care about any portion of humanity. Whoever they have the misfortune to be governed by.
Secondly, 'heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive', any references for that?

[Derek27]

Supermarket update: been to ASDA, queue only 3 minutes and they had everything I needed, and amble beer supplies. Things are getting back to normal.

[Archery1969]

My missus's brother is a teacher in China. He wasnt allowed out of his apartment for 4 weeks under any circumstances. Specially designated members of the public did everyones food shopping for them and took dirty clothes to the laundrette. The lockdown was incredibly strict.

Not that I care about that corner of the world but seen footage of people's homes being barricaded from the outside to make sure they don't leave, and heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive. One thing is for damn sure, China knows how to Party.

Why do you not care about any portion of humanity. Whoever they have the misfortune to be governed by.
Secondly, 'heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive', any references for that?

'heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive''

There are some YT videos of reporters talking to staff who run crematoruims. They said they had received people still moving and coughing. Orders were to cremate them asap and not keep records.

[Ver3bal k1nt]

There's been 2 really interesting pieces on Sky News and BBC News. Scientists say If we did nothing, 500,000 would die from this disease. 600,000 people die in this country every year anyway. That 500,000 figure is factored into that 600,000. The vast majority of the people dying would have died this year anyway. The problem is that they would have been spread over the 12 months and not a shorter time frame. 1677 people die every day in this country without the virus.
The goverments strategy isnt about saving the dead, its about the 2-3 million people who may contract the virus and need hospital treatment, which will obviously destroy the NHS. The doctors already know whos gonna die and whos gonna pull through the minute they get to hospital.
Dont be alarmed by the figures. The vast majority of fit, healthy people on here will have a 0.4% chance of dying from COVID-19. I like those odds.

[Ver3bal k1nt]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

[Derek27]

Dont be alarmed by the figures. The vast majority of fit, healthy people on here will have a 0.4% chance of dying from COVID-19. I like those odds.

What about the people on here who aren't fit and healthy (as well as all our friends and relatives). You're telling them not to be alarmed because other groups just have a 0.4% chance?

[jimibt]

There's been 2 really interesting pieces on Sky News and BBC News. Scientists say If we did nothing, 500,000 would die from this disease. 600,000 people die in this country every year anyway. That 500,000 figure is factored into that 600,000.

i'm definitely not getting that (as a stats based person). if 600k die normally, but 500k will die from the disease, does hat mean that without the disease we'd only have 100k deaths this year??

sorry for being obviously fascicious!!

[Ver3bal k1nt]

No, as the piece clearly says, there is a massive overlap in the figures, which makes for the exact death rate extremely difficult to judge. And as it says, the vast majority of the deaths would have died anyway this year. Which is included in the 600,000

[Derek27]

The doctors already know whos gonna die and whos gonna pull through the minute they get to hospital.

Do you have a reference for that or is it your own conclusion?

Do the doctors tell the dying patient, as they usually do, that there's nothing they can do besides make them comfortable?

[Ver3bal k1nt]

Dont be alarmed by the figures. The vast majority of fit, healthy people on here will have a 0.4% chance of dying from COVID-19. I like those odds.

What about the people on here who aren't fit and healthy (as well as all our friends and relatives). You're telling them not to be alarmed because other groups just have a 0.4% chance?

Then your time will come just that little bit quicker. As the scientists say, the vast majority who die from the disease will have died this year anyway. If your struggling with that concept then maybe you should turn off the news for a while.

[Kai]

Why do you not care about any portion of humanity. Whoever they have the misfortune to be governed by.

I've just given up on them and lost all faith in their regime, not that I had much/any to begin with. Like I said on a few occasions earlier I sympathize with their people but don't care much about their regime, I see everyone is mostly praising China for "buying the world much needed time" but from my perspective their regime is the one that has directly caused all of this turmoil in the first place. In that sense I think they've let the whole world down, it's just sad to see how much we all have to depend on a communist country to produce everything including meds.

[Kafkaesque]

Bad news. UK deaths now exceeds 1,000 with 250 dieing in the last 24 hours.

Our death rate now exceeds Italy for the same timeline.

Government now will have no choice but to impose a complete lockdown.

There’s no imminent cure for this so everyone (80%?) will probably get it. That's fine so long as the NHS can cope and we'll hopefully level out at about 20k deaths (0.04% of us). Complete lockdowns are really only possible for relatively short spells and when they're lifted you're back to square one. What's needed is a managed rate of infection and to be fair that's going quite well atm.

250 dead in 24hrs is only an increase of about 12% on a normal pre-corona day, and on a normal day the NHS runs at about 85% capacity, so it's still just within what's manageable. I'd read 250 dead as pretty good news compared to what it would be without a lockdown or a lockdown that had to be lifted so people didn't starve from lack of an income.

Agree 100% ith all that.
Something struck me very forceablt today. I and others have posted concerns about Africa/Brazil/India etc that have a lot of poverty and poor health resources and the terrible consequences for them of the virus.
But if you look at the % of those populations over 65, they're very low.
Similarly, people with underlying health conditions don't survive.
So by a bizarre twist they might do pretty well. It does seem to be sweeping through wealthy, longlived populations. Japan being a stark exception, particularly with the population density.

The big question for me is, despite your valid age point, we're yet to see what transpires if the virus sweeps through an area with a poor and dense population. Yeah, age isn't an issue, but will people in an area where social distanceing isn't really an option be able to fight off the virus if they 're suffering from malnutrition of varying degrees? Correct me, if I'm wrong but we don't have evidence on that yet, no?

It's first a potential disater for them, and second I'd be worried whether the virus easily jumping from host to host, who doesn't have an age/underlying condition that causes the virus to kill the person, but rather lingers within people who through malnutrition doesn't quite have the immune system to fight it off as easily as those in richer areas. And whether that would prove a breeding ground for it to mutate into something more sinister. Just fatalistic, layman's wonderings, but ones I haven't seen addressed, much less answered anywhere.

[Emmson]

• UK passes Italy, 2nd only to Spain for deaths at this stage of outbreak
• US deaths doubling every 3 days, curve keeps steepening
• India tracking US

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 7863145473

[ShaunWhite]

Then your time will come just that little bit quicker. As the scientists say, the vast majority who die from the disease will have died this year anyway. If your struggling with that concept then maybe you should turn off the news for a while.

You should listen to More or Less on R4, this specific concept is explained in great detail. Unfortunately deaths from CV don't necessarily mean that the number people who would have otherwise died reduces to any significant extent.

If that was the case there wouldn't be a crisis if their time was up anyway. The reason it's a crisis is that the deaths are above and beyond what's normal. Your position appears logical but is oversimplified to the point of no longer being accurate.

[Emmson]

We don't know what we don't know.

What will happen when this deadly virus sweeps through slums, shantytowns and favelas.

Life expectancy Italy 82.54
China 76.25
India 68.56